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Show HN: Fortunately – Understand the tradeoffs of financial decisions
- gerad 4y agoI’m Gerad, CTO of Fortunately. I started Fortunately to help families with personal finance decisions. There’s tons of great (and bad) financial advice out there. And I knew which was which – I studied economics at Stanford and worked in finance. But I struggled to put my knowledge into practice because it was too general: I knew I shouldn’t leave money in cash, but what about the down payment for my house? I knew I should save for retirement, but how much? I knew I should be saving for my kids’ college in a 529, but how much should I contribute this year? I knew I shouldn’t pay a financial advisor, but how do you answer these questions without one? Eventually I met Seth, a former actuary who studied economics and math at Yale. He was using simulations to determine whether he’d be better off with an interest-only mortgage or a traditional 30 yr fixed one. We realized that we could use that same approach to provide people with better insight on all sorts of personal finance decisions. Fortunately is the first tool that really helps people understand the tradeoffs between the major financial decisions in their lives. For example, we help families understand how a bigger mortgage might impact their retirement plans, how much to save in a 401k vs a 529, and how an upcoming purchase should impact asset allocation. We evaluate everything using best-in-class simulations that we license from the same data providers that supply hedge funds and the insurance industry. Fortunately is free to use to get a financial plan that helps you understand how to save to hit your goals. Eventually, we’re planning on charging a low monthly fee (not a % of assets) to automatically manage your investments. We’d love to hear your feedback.
- fsflyer 4y agoI've tried dozens of this type of tools over the years, most in the past ten years as we got ready to retire and then retired a few years ago. Many of the tools were simplistic like Fortunately, but some give better information like I-ORP, On Trajectory, Pralana, Flexible Retirement Planner, ESPlanner and the Bogleheads Retiree Portfolio Model. See the BogleHeads Wiki page on retirement calculators [0] for a bigger list and links to these tools. Darrow [1] also has good reviews of retirement calculators. Fortunately in its current state doesn't help me at all. It wouldn't have helped me 10 years before retirement either. You probably want to join the BogleHeads forum [2], as many of these folks could be your potential customers, but they are also your competition that gives away excellent advice for free. Look at the questions that are asked and the high quality answers and see if you can replicate them in your tool. Claims from the FAQ page: - Takes into account capital gains. But it didn't ask any basis information about my brokerage balance. Does it guess? What value did it use? - Takes into account income tax. It didn't ask my breakdown of stocks/bonds in the brokerage account or in my retirement accounts. How are dividends and interest handled? - Social Security needs to be modeled. The free open source tools at https://ssa.tools https://ssa.tools and https://opensocialsecurity.com https://opensocialsecurity.com contain the minimum that you need to model. The question "Should I work one more year?" is a common one and one you need to handle. - Health care is not even on the list of things ignored and it's one of the biggest questions for folks retiring early. It has huge effects on federal taxes and the ACA cliff caused some folks to keep their income artificially low. IRMAA [3] is also a concern for some folks. - There is no way to separate traditional retirement accounts from Roth type accounts which have very different tax treatments. - A common question for early retirees is should I do a Roth conversion or should I take advantage of the 0% capital gains bracket? Modeling the RMDs and the taxes on that is complex, but absolutely necessary to properly answer this question. - Ignoring state taxes can give misleading answers to some of the questions above. I live in a state that taxes capital gains as income, like many states. So when I take advantage of the 0% federal cap gains bracket, my state taxes can be 3-4x my federal taxes. It looks like you are targeting younger customers that will have lots of uncertainty with how the market will go and what will happen with tax policy. Often times these customers are just as well served by the Mr Money Mustache savings curve [4] and low cost index investing. I think the real opportunity to make money is helping with the hard problems of folks about to retire and those that are retired. Tools like RPM are difficult to use. A web tool that uses an interview process to collect the data and then writes out a spreadsheet might be a useful tool. [0] https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Retirement_calculators_and_spending https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Retirement_calculators_and_s... [1] https://www.caniretireyet.com/the-best-retirement-calculators/ https://www.caniretireyet.com/the-best-retirement-calculator... [2] https://www.bogleheads.org https://www.bogleheads.org [3] https://thefinancebuff.com/medicare-irmaa-income-brackets.html https://thefinancebuff.com/medicare-irmaa-income-brackets.ht... [4] https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/ https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-si...
- gerad 4y agoWow! Thank you so much for the fantastic and thoughtful feedback. This is truly excellent and super helpful. You're right that the needs of people at or near retirement (especially early retirement) are much more complex and comprehensive than those that are further from it: people closer to retirement have more types of investments and income (pensions), tax optimizing your retirement drawdowns is super important, social security relevant (it's better for younger folks not to count on it). This is part of the reason that there's a lot more whitespace in the market there – there's a lot more to build! We're planning to get there one day, but it takes time. You're right we're targeting younger families right now. They still have plenty of questions, but their financial situations are generally much more uniform. We're big fans of the BogleHeads (it's why we use the 3 fund portfolio in our plan) and Mr. Money Mustache - they do a great job with general purpose advice, but we've found it hard to make actionable. These articles can't answer questions like how much later will I need to retire if I buy a bigger house? Or how much should I save in my 529? It's really impossible for most people to figure that out right now. Thanks for pointing out some inadequacies in our FAQ. This is super helpful, we'll get it up to date. I'll also try to respond to everything here. Please let me know if I missed anything. - Takes into account capital gains. But it didn't ask any basis information about my brokerage balance. Does it guess? What value did it use? We assume your cost basis is 100% for the initial balance with the manual inputs (if you don't sync your accounts via Plaid), and we track the cost basis and tax impacts of future buys and sales when running our simulations. - Takes into account income tax. It didn't ask my breakdown of stocks/bonds in the brokerage account or in my retirement accounts. How are dividends and interest handled? The simulation today essentially assumes that you follow our recommended stock/bond allocation, but we're working to open that up. We take income tax into account for traditional retirement fund distributions and capital gains. Dividends and interest payments are rolled into gains (admittedly this does understate their tax impact when the savings are in taxable accounts). - There is no way to separate traditional retirement accounts from Roth type accounts which have very different tax treatments. Yep, for the onboarding flow we keep things simple - we only ask for one "Retirement savings" number. But you can add a Roth account (and any other number of accounts) after onboarding. - Social Security needs to be modeled. The free open source tools at https://ssa.tools https://ssa.tools and https://opensocialsecurity.com https://opensocialsecurity.com contain the minimum that you need to model. The question "Should I work one more year?" is a common one and one you need to handle. Thanks the links! Super useful. We'll check them out. We don't model Social Security yet - it's tough to forecast how much younger folks should count on it, so we've left it out for now. - Health care is not even on the list of things ignored and it's one of the biggest questions for folks retiring early. It has huge effects on federal taxes and the ACA cliff caused some folks to keep their income artificially low. IRMAA [3] is also a concern for some folks. - A common question for early retirees is should I do a Roth conversion or should I take advantage of the 0% capital gains bracket? Modeling the RMDs and the taxes on that is complex, but absolutely necessary to properly answer this question. Completely agreed on both. Early retirees have a lot of really complex needs that we really can't help with (yet). - Ignoring state taxes can give misleading answers to some of the questions above. I live in a state that taxes capital gains as income, like many states. So when I take advantage of the 0% federal cap gains bracket, my state taxes can be 3-4x my federal taxes. Handling state taxes is on the roadmap. There are a lot of states! For most of our demographic, the impact is expected to be small on the percentage change change of outcomes.
- jereees 4y agoTime is not linear.
- gerad 4y agoNope. It's a flat circle.
- troydavis 4y agoI clicked through on a phone and got a survey, but no examples of what the output would be - no reason to take it. I’d need some context, like 3-4 real examples of whatever it’s going to tell me. HTH.
- gerad 4y agoThanks! I direct linked into the product because the HN post had some of those details, but you can see a lot of that on the marketing site: https://livefortunately.com/ https://livefortunately.com/ We'll work to make the product landing page better.
- bredren 4y agoThank you for sharing your work. This is cool I like how quickly you can get to some suggestions. Feedback: - If saving for a home is an immediate goal, and the simulation showed it to be successful, (99% likely), Have an entire graph dedicated to showing how deceiving, down payment and mortgage payments will work. Given present macro: - be sure to provide some idea that your mortgage calculations reflect realistic rates. Many calculators assume low. Maybe you already factor in a refinance? Mention it! Whether a retirement will happen is boring compared to whether we are on track to buy a home. I’d suggest even splitting the results into completely separate pages with way more things to do / detail in each. - a cash drawdown into stocks now? The knife is falling presently. Perhaps some trimmings on preparing to enter the market, but surely you wouldn’t advise home down payment money be invested immediately? the market is ~in free fall. - please make the slider buttons larger and easier to grab - when making user wait, show “running simulations” or maybe a calculations looking animated spinner so it’s clear what is happening during that pause. (Your fancy math) perhaps brand your simulator with a cool name Ask for an email but also provide some idea of amaze privacy / unsubscribe. (We don’t track you, we delete accounts, always your choice etc. and honor this super consumer friendly stance toward finance.
- gerad 4y agoThanks so much for the awesome, actionable feedback. These are some fantastic ideas. The idea about separating out results is one we've been kicking that around recently too, but you got to it a lot faster than we did. :-) On "surely you wouldn’t advise home down payment money be invested immediately?" this is actually a really cool part of our product, we change your asset allocation based on how proximate your goals are… so if you have an upcoming home purchase, we recommend the savings you need for it is allocated much more towards bonds and cash, while any savings for goals is allocated toward higher growth opportunities. We need to highlight that more. Here's a screenshot of how it works in the product: https://imgur.com/a/78CwP83 https://imgur.com/a/78CwP83 Thanks again for the supportive and constructive feedback! Really, really appreciated.
- bredren 4y agoYou're welcome. Just seeing the reply now. I did not realize the product had the asset allocation thing. If you see this, I'd suggest mentioning that this information is available if you sign up for the product. You may have said this in there, but I'd also suggest making it clear that all the information already entered will be imported automatically. (they don't have to do it all again)
- TIPSIO 4y agoJust want to drop a quick thank you and share my appreciation. It’s easy for super paid engineers to figure out retirement because it will likely just automatically happen for them between high salaries / aggressively competitive benefits or stock windfalls if they can curb lifestyle spending habits and just work moderately hard. For the rest of us… different story and life long commitment to reaching financial independence “the hard way”. Some feedback: - The end screen I wish was configurable or easier to see is this inflation adjusted or assume x% growth rate. This widget is the best I’ve used check it out: https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/save-million-calculator https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/save-million-calcul... - I never know — and struggle - do these assume wage growth or not with inflation? I find this always the worst at trying to figure out savings and confusing. Maybe help digest that. - “FIRE life hacks” or some fun name could also be useful. For example, paying down mortgage with extra payments, sell your car and get one 30% cheaper, killing expenses by x%, move that cash to index fund for 22 years left until retirement, side gig that produced $500 a month, or paying student loan debt or not faster. Would be cool to automate this with reasonable default recommendations. So less, hey your set or not make a plan, and more here’s your situation but here’s the best possible thing you could be doing. I think it could driver greater impact and people more likely to be motivated. Either way, will definitely share this with friends, love what you all are doing, and wishing you good luck!
- gerad 4y agoThank you so much! We appreciate the encouragement and your feedback is really useful - we're just blown away by the time folks have taken to reply and the ideas they have shared. We love the FIRE life hacks ideas - they're really awesome. We adjust expenses for inflation over time, but not savings/income. It's a little more conservative that way - and we were struggling to figure out how to represent it. I agree the bank rate calculator is super clear, and it's a good source of inspiration. Thanks for sharing! Thanks again! I really can't adequately express how appreciative we are of this fantastic support!
- charlie0 4y agoNice app! Would be nice to have an option to show more details, kinda like the stats for nerds on YT to show the assumptions being made made. One thing I didn't see is anything related to IRA accounts. As an aside, I've been wanting a financial service that keeps tracks of all my assets AND doesn't compromise on privacy or try to upsell me. I'd be willing to pay for that.
- gerad 4y agoThanks! You can add IRA accounts if you save your plan. You're not the only person to ask for that - we need to improve the UI there. We do this! "I've been wanting a financial service that keeps tracks of all my assets AND doesn't compromise on privacy or try to upsell me." Is there something you feel we're missing?