6 ms·

Arguably the war is happening because we had prepared for it insufficiently.

the_af 4y ago
It's hard to understand how "we" could not have prepared sufficiently. This conflict in Europe isn't a spur of the moment thing. Arguably it could have been in the making since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but even if you don't go that far back, then at least from 2014. It certainly didn't come out of the blue! I'll make my comment more assertive: I think "we" (for almost any value of "we") prepared for this. Some assumptions were proven wrong, like it often happens with war. But a lot of it is playing out like many assumed it would, or at least, it's playing out so that some factions can observe what modern war fought with modern weapons looks like.
- vorpalhex 4y ago
  I think EU specifically dropped it's defense and R&D budgets and became too weak, making land grabs by Russia possible. There's a reason Russia feels good blustering about attacking Finland.
  - foverzar 4y ago
    > There's a reason Russia feels good blustering about attacking Finland. When did that happen?
    - vorpalhex 4y ago
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/russia-threatens-retaliatory-steps-if-finland-joins-nato.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/russia-threatens-retaliatory... https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/russia-threatens-nukes-for-us-uk-finland-if-nato-expands/ https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/russia-threatens-nukes-for-us-... https://www.newsweek.com/russia-threatens-finland-sweden-nato-ukraine-invasion-1682715 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-threatens-finland-sweden-nat... This was major news and carried by almost every outlet. It is almost certainly just bluster, but escalatory bluster for sure.
- whimsicalism 4y ago
  If war was the predictable outcome, Ukraine should probably have been more dovish towards Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the East, ie. not banning Russian language, not shelling cities. Obviously what Russia has done is reprehensible, but if Ukraine saw war as incoming I don't see why they took these aggravating steps.
  - the_af 4y ago
    Let's just say I find your comment very on point. I would like to discuss this, but I don't think this is the best venue, and also this is a very sensitive topic and people are likely to be upset. And I wouldn't blame them. I did want to say your observation is astute.
  - int_19h 4y ago
    Russian language isn't banned anywhere in Ukraine. Indeed, 5 minutes of combat footage from the Ukrainian side will quickly show that the majority of their armed forces speak Russian. Even Russians themselves reflected on this, noting that most volunteer forces they have faced so far come not from the Western (majority-Ukrainian-speaking) regions of Ukraine, but rather from Kharkiv, Dnipro etc. Their explanation is that all those people are "brainwashed by Ukrainian Nazis". There is some real contention with the status of Russian as 1) the official government language, and 2) the official education language in schools. But I don't think it's fair to phrase that as "banning Russian".
    - notahacker 4y ago
      And anyway, the Ukrainian population did take those steps when most of them voted for a political outsider from a Russian speaking background seen as sympathetic to Russian speaking culture and somewhat willing to negotiate better relations with the "independent Republics". Putin interpreted that as a sign of weakness...
    - whimsicalism 4y ago
      It is illegal to have government communication in Russian or to have a Russian language radio station in Ukraine. I would call that banning Russian language from some aspects of public life.
- cestith 4y ago
  Ukraine has, in fact, been partly occupied and claimed by a foreign power since 2014.

It's hard to understand how "we" could not have prepared sufficiently. This conflict in Europe isn't a spur of the moment thing. Arguably it could have been in the making since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but even if you don't go that far back, then at least from 2014. It certainly didn't come out of the blue! I'll make my comment more assertive: I think "we" (for almost any value of "we") prepared for this. Some assumptions were proven wrong, like it often happens with war. But a lot of it is playing out like many assumed it would, or at least, it's playing out so that some factions can observe what modern war fought with modern weapons looks like.

vorpalhex 4y ago
I think EU specifically dropped it's defense and R&D budgets and became too weak, making land grabs by Russia possible. There's a reason Russia feels good blustering about attacking Finland.
- foverzar 4y ago
  > There's a reason Russia feels good blustering about attacking Finland. When did that happen?
  - vorpalhex 4y ago
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/russia-threatens-retaliatory-steps-if-finland-joins-nato.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/russia-threatens-retaliatory... https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/russia-threatens-nukes-for-us-uk-finland-if-nato-expands/ https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/russia-threatens-nukes-for-us-... https://www.newsweek.com/russia-threatens-finland-sweden-nato-ukraine-invasion-1682715 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-threatens-finland-sweden-nat... This was major news and carried by almost every outlet. It is almost certainly just bluster, but escalatory bluster for sure.
whimsicalism 4y ago
If war was the predictable outcome, Ukraine should probably have been more dovish towards Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the East, ie. not banning Russian language, not shelling cities. Obviously what Russia has done is reprehensible, but if Ukraine saw war as incoming I don't see why they took these aggravating steps.
- the_af 4y ago
  Let's just say I find your comment very on point. I would like to discuss this, but I don't think this is the best venue, and also this is a very sensitive topic and people are likely to be upset. And I wouldn't blame them. I did want to say your observation is astute.
- int_19h 4y ago
  Russian language isn't banned anywhere in Ukraine. Indeed, 5 minutes of combat footage from the Ukrainian side will quickly show that the majority of their armed forces speak Russian. Even Russians themselves reflected on this, noting that most volunteer forces they have faced so far come not from the Western (majority-Ukrainian-speaking) regions of Ukraine, but rather from Kharkiv, Dnipro etc. Their explanation is that all those people are "brainwashed by Ukrainian Nazis". There is some real contention with the status of Russian as 1) the official government language, and 2) the official education language in schools. But I don't think it's fair to phrase that as "banning Russian".
  - notahacker 4y ago
    And anyway, the Ukrainian population did take those steps when most of them voted for a political outsider from a Russian speaking background seen as sympathetic to Russian speaking culture and somewhat willing to negotiate better relations with the "independent Republics". Putin interpreted that as a sign of weakness...
  - whimsicalism 4y ago
    It is illegal to have government communication in Russian or to have a Russian language radio station in Ukraine. I would call that banning Russian language from some aspects of public life.
cestith 4y ago
Ukraine has, in fact, been partly occupied and claimed by a foreign power since 2014.