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this jump may have just put us out of being homeowners in California, even with a full 20% down in cash. wow. the issue we're seeing locally in Sacramento (you

this jump may have just put us out of being homeowners in California, even with a full 20% down in cash. wow. the issue we're seeing locally in Sacramento (your market may vary) is that there's still a lot of Bay Area WFH salaries moving our way that outbid us, and the house flippers are most definitely still in the market. Our local salaries in healthcare haven't been adjusted, and at this point, we're basically screwed. :/ I can't pull another $100k out of a hat.

missedthecue 4y ago
you'd think the cost of money going up so sharply might cause home prices to decrease, but I suppose this effect will take time to materialize.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- yourapostasy 4y ago
  Dirt is so very sticky over a period of a moving 7-year average because it is our era's store of wealth gold semi-equivalent compared to back when gold backed currencies. Equities are our silver semi-equivalent compared to back when we had a bi-metal backing. What really backs currencies today is far more complex, but that's a gist. If it wasn't, then you wouldn't have so many companies whose financial "ballast" so-to-speak driven largely by dirt, like McDonald's as a famous example but this is far more prevalent in business than you'd think if you haven't been around lots of businesses. Stack on all the structural advantages conferred to real estate asset characterization and outright subsidies, and it isn't surprising that dirt pricing follows more of a subsidized pricing behavior than an open market with rapid value and price discovery.
  - naveen99 4y ago
    Dirt will be largely irrelevant in the age of AI. the gold standard had to be abandoned. Real estate standard will have to be abandoned as well. May take some time though.
    - reducesuffering 4y ago
      CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, still thinks land will be valuable. https://mobile.twitter.com/sama/status/1371893244636717058?lang=en https://mobile.twitter.com/sama/status/1371893244636717058?l...
      - naveen99 4y ago
        I think a federal us property tax makes sense. In fact the rest of the world needs real estate property taxes similar to us states. But taking equity as a tax makes no sense, that’s communism. capitalist governments just take the profits without the burden of running the company. If government owns the company, there is no tax, as the employees are then paid by the government (a negative tax). All government employees have a negative effective tax rate equal to their take home income.
    - imtringued 4y ago
      The Earth is humanity's treasure and you argue that some stupid AI is going to replace it? Hello we already have advanced natural intelligences called humans.
      - naveen99 4y ago
        Not the whole earth. Just the imbalance between parts of the earth. Location just isn’t as important when you communicate at light speed. real estate values are entirely based on location.
bombcar 4y ago
Look up the Redfin et al layoffs, the housing market has cooled off tremendously (anecdata: the house for sale on my block had a sold sign under it that is now gone, still on the market a month later; earlier things weren't lasting a week). However, there's always a delay as sellers refuse to admit what's happening, and so supplies grown and sales plummet until the prices adjust. Bad news: the monthly payments may remain the same. Continue to collect cash and keep an eye out.
- jrnichols 4y ago
  that might be just what we do. at least our current situation is a decent one. fortunately.
sytelus 4y ago
This is actually a great time to buy house. You are not going to have bidding wars and take your time. For now, swallow the pill for 6% rate but know that this will come down in next 2-3 years as Ukraine war wraps up and supply chain stabilizes. You can then simply refinance at 3%.
- athorax 4y ago
  That is hugely optimistic. Rates could just as easily be 8% in 2-3 years
- jrnichols 4y ago
  We thought about that but the rate jumps + California prices quickly put things out of reach.
paulmendoza 4y ago
Prices will drop in a few months as supply has to find demand. In the end everyone just buys how much monthly payments they can afford.

missedthecue 4y ago

you'd think the cost of money going up so sharply might cause home prices to decrease, but I suppose this effect will take time to materialize.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
yourapostasy 4y ago
Dirt is so very sticky over a period of a moving 7-year average because it is our era's store of wealth gold semi-equivalent compared to back when gold backed currencies. Equities are our silver semi-equivalent compared to back when we had a bi-metal backing. What really backs currencies today is far more complex, but that's a gist. If it wasn't, then you wouldn't have so many companies whose financial "ballast" so-to-speak driven largely by dirt, like McDonald's as a famous example but this is far more prevalent in business than you'd think if you haven't been around lots of businesses. Stack on all the structural advantages conferred to real estate asset characterization and outright subsidies, and it isn't surprising that dirt pricing follows more of a subsidized pricing behavior than an open market with rapid value and price discovery.
- naveen99 4y ago
  Dirt will be largely irrelevant in the age of AI. the gold standard had to be abandoned. Real estate standard will have to be abandoned as well. May take some time though.
  - reducesuffering 4y ago
    CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, still thinks land will be valuable. https://mobile.twitter.com/sama/status/1371893244636717058?lang=en https://mobile.twitter.com/sama/status/1371893244636717058?l...
    - naveen99 4y ago
      I think a federal us property tax makes sense. In fact the rest of the world needs real estate property taxes similar to us states. But taking equity as a tax makes no sense, that’s communism. capitalist governments just take the profits without the burden of running the company. If government owns the company, there is no tax, as the employees are then paid by the government (a negative tax). All government employees have a negative effective tax rate equal to their take home income.
  - imtringued 4y ago
    The Earth is humanity's treasure and you argue that some stupid AI is going to replace it? Hello we already have advanced natural intelligences called humans.
    - naveen99 4y ago
      Not the whole earth. Just the imbalance between parts of the earth. Location just isn’t as important when you communicate at light speed. real estate values are entirely based on location.

bombcar 4y ago

Look up the Redfin et al layoffs, the housing market has cooled off tremendously (anecdata: the house for sale on my block had a sold sign under it that is now gone, still on the market a month later; earlier things weren't lasting a week). However, there's always a delay as sellers refuse to admit what's happening, and so supplies grown and sales plummet until the prices adjust. Bad news: the monthly payments may remain the same. Continue to collect cash and keep an eye out.

jrnichols 4y ago
that might be just what we do. at least our current situation is a decent one. fortunately.

sytelus 4y ago

This is actually a great time to buy house. You are not going to have bidding wars and take your time. For now, swallow the pill for 6% rate but know that this will come down in next 2-3 years as Ukraine war wraps up and supply chain stabilizes. You can then simply refinance at 3%.

athorax 4y ago
That is hugely optimistic. Rates could just as easily be 8% in 2-3 years
jrnichols 4y ago
We thought about that but the rate jumps + California prices quickly put things out of reach.

paulmendoza 4y ago

Prices will drop in a few months as supply has to find demand. In the end everyone just buys how much monthly payments they can afford.