5 ms·

How is crypto still a thing?

api 4y ago
A prolonged environment of virtually zero to even negative interest rates inflating speculative bubbles all over the place.
- SV_BubbleTime 4y ago
  I think it’s easier than that. Two things that go hand in hand. There is still money coming in, and people want to believe. When one of those stops… look out.
- mckirk 4y ago
  When I randomly checked my Steam account and realized I had about $70 worth of ingame items that I had gotten through drops while playing, and which had suddenly 'appreciated in value' noticeably... That's when I knew we are in an everything-bubble.
  - bratwurst3000 4y ago
    I like „everythingbubble“ that explains so much so easy :)
brink 4y ago
It's gambling with charts, and greed is an inherent vice in humans.
abirch 4y ago
Companies like Fidelity are letting people gamble their 401ks in crypto. A16Z just set aside billions for the Web3. It's going to take a while to disappear.
- koolba 4y ago
  Crypto trading in a 401k would at least solve the maze of taxes and valuations. Assuming it doesn’t go to zero (yes, yes, big if…), what you get out when you cash out and withdraw would be ordinary income.
  - cycrutchfield 4y ago
    Not to mention widespread adoption would increase the likelihood of a government bailout when it inevitably crashes, which is the real motivating factor for those pushing for it
    - NotSammyHagar 4y ago
      That doesn't necessarily follow to me. When an average company goes bankrupt, people just lose their money. I believe federal intervention is when there is systemic risk (or major criminal actions). I've been learning from this thread but it doesn't seem to be systemic. It's not going to take down a bunch of real world banks, crypto market cap was less than $1T. If I own bank stock or whatever in my 401k, it's on me if it dies, crypto would be the same.
- splitrocket 4y ago
  You take the stairs up, but the elevator down.
  - bratwurst3000 4y ago
    Some maybe the roof …
- jjoonathan 4y ago
  What? Fidelity won't even let me buy stocks in my 401k, let alone options or crypto -- they only offer a couple of curated high-fee ETFs.
  - tablespoon 4y ago
    > What? Fidelity won't even let me buy stocks in my 401k, let alone options or crypto -- they only offer a couple of curated high-fee ETFs. I think it's something employers can optionally choose to offer in their plans
  - _blz2 4y ago
    You need a brokeragelink account in your 401k. Then transfer from index funds to that account and then you can trade stocks. After filling out an application you can enable derivative trading too in your 401k BrokerageLink account.
  - abirch 4y ago
    You can roll over your 401K into a Rollover IRA and even do options.
fullshark 4y ago
Because "it's the best performing asset this decade and the future of finance" and FOMO.
EGreg 4y ago
Crypto used to mean cryptography. It is very much a thing. https://amp.theguardian.com/technology/2021/nov/18/crypto-cryptocurrency-cryptographers https://amp.theguardian.com/technology/2021/nov/18/crypto-cr... On the other hand, Bitcoin and Web3 sucks mainly because it is based on Blockchain. That solves the double-spend problem but in the most brute force way: gather all transactions in one place (miner) and look for a double-spend, then have everyone store the state of every coin/smart contract. That is as dumb as having BitTorrent require every seeder to host every file. As more people join, the throughput always remains the same. Can you name any other Internet protocols where “max transactions per second” is a thing? How many websites per second can HTTP support? How many emails per second can SMTP support? Blockchain is one of the only technologies in history that promises to become slower and more expensive over time. And hence people jump in early, to buy the “utility token” issued in block rewards, because it’ll become more scarce later as transaction costs skyrocket. All it does is attract speculation, not utility. And hence, rather than using crypto with smart contracts to power community applications such as https://intercoin.org/applications https://intercoin.org/applications — instead it is relegated to peer-to-peer applications that do transactions once in a while. This is what must happen to make crypto mainstream: https://intercoin.org/proposal.pdf https://intercoin.org/proposal.pdf … but most projects are stuck in just doing more of the same … blockchain, blockchain, speculation, speculation, yields, rewards out of thin air, etc. If no one successfully does this then we’ll live in a world where Big Tech controls our interactions and the Federal Governments (CBDC) controls our transactions. Very centrally planned world with no viable crypto alternatives. China already has WeChat central database and the social credit system. Canada already froze accounts of truckers. It’s early days.
- cmrdporcupine 4y ago
  "Freezing accounts of truckers" is not what happened.
  - djbebs 4y ago
    It literally is though
    - 4y ago
time_to_smile 4y ago
Cheap money means there is no reality. This doesn't just impact crypto, but all of startup land and most of tech. How many startups have you interviewed with that were planning for "doubling head count this year!"? Nearly everyone I've talked to since 2018 has been planning for exponential growth with no idea what to even do with all these new hires. People are building and shipping products that fundamentally don't make economic sense. There have been plenty of IPOs for companies it's not entirely clear can ever turn a profit. There was a post on Hacker News a few weeks back claiming that "natural resources" don't exist and there are absolutely no limits to economic growth. I'm not fan of crypto but it's the natural consequence of the reality fading from memory. As the price of money goes up, reality will return with a vengeance.
- ch4s3 4y ago
  > There was a post on Hacker News a few weeks back claiming that "natural resources" don't exist and there are absolutely no limits to economic growth. I don't disagree per se, but a resource is really a material that human ingenuity has been applied to so that it can serve a useful purpose. There are lots of lots of materials that used to be turned into resources that we no longer bother with like whale oil, or current resources that used to just be gunk like crude oil. There are also resources which don't come from nature directly like computation, money, and so on. There is a lot of potential to find new uses for materials and resources in the future that could lead to further economic growth. Growth can be defined as as the increase or improvement in the inflation-adjusted market value of goods and services produced over a period of time. Services don't necessarily require pulling things out of the ground. Improvements in computing that increase productivity lead to growth. Making a person to person service more efficient or inventing a new service could allow for a lot of future growth. Is this likely to be infinitely sustainable? I have no idea.
bratwurst3000 4y ago
I meant that ironic. If one tries to answer the question the reality of crypto will begin to emerge :)

api 4y ago

A prolonged environment of virtually zero to even negative interest rates inflating speculative bubbles all over the place.

SV_BubbleTime 4y ago
I think it’s easier than that. Two things that go hand in hand. There is still money coming in, and people want to believe. When one of those stops… look out.
mckirk 4y ago
When I randomly checked my Steam account and realized I had about $70 worth of ingame items that I had gotten through drops while playing, and which had suddenly 'appreciated in value' noticeably... That's when I knew we are in an everything-bubble.
- bratwurst3000 4y ago
  I like „everythingbubble“ that explains so much so easy :)

brink 4y ago

It's gambling with charts, and greed is an inherent vice in humans.

abirch 4y ago

Companies like Fidelity are letting people gamble their 401ks in crypto. A16Z just set aside billions for the Web3. It's going to take a while to disappear.

koolba 4y ago
Crypto trading in a 401k would at least solve the maze of taxes and valuations. Assuming it doesn’t go to zero (yes, yes, big if…), what you get out when you cash out and withdraw would be ordinary income.
- cycrutchfield 4y ago
  Not to mention widespread adoption would increase the likelihood of a government bailout when it inevitably crashes, which is the real motivating factor for those pushing for it
  - NotSammyHagar 4y ago
    That doesn't necessarily follow to me. When an average company goes bankrupt, people just lose their money. I believe federal intervention is when there is systemic risk (or major criminal actions). I've been learning from this thread but it doesn't seem to be systemic. It's not going to take down a bunch of real world banks, crypto market cap was less than $1T. If I own bank stock or whatever in my 401k, it's on me if it dies, crypto would be the same.
splitrocket 4y ago
You take the stairs up, but the elevator down.
- bratwurst3000 4y ago
  Some maybe the roof …
jjoonathan 4y ago
What? Fidelity won't even let me buy stocks in my 401k, let alone options or crypto -- they only offer a couple of curated high-fee ETFs.
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > What? Fidelity won't even let me buy stocks in my 401k, let alone options or crypto -- they only offer a couple of curated high-fee ETFs. I think it's something employers can optionally choose to offer in their plans
- _blz2 4y ago
  You need a brokeragelink account in your 401k. Then transfer from index funds to that account and then you can trade stocks. After filling out an application you can enable derivative trading too in your 401k BrokerageLink account.
- abirch 4y ago
  You can roll over your 401K into a Rollover IRA and even do options.

fullshark 4y ago

Because "it's the best performing asset this decade and the future of finance" and FOMO.

EGreg 4y ago

Crypto used to mean cryptography. It is very much a thing. https://amp.theguardian.com/technology/2021/nov/18/crypto-cryptocurrency-cryptographers https://amp.theguardian.com/technology/2021/nov/18/crypto-cr... On the other hand, Bitcoin and Web3 sucks mainly because it is based on Blockchain. That solves the double-spend problem but in the most brute force way: gather all transactions in one place (miner) and look for a double-spend, then have everyone store the state of every coin/smart contract. That is as dumb as having BitTorrent require every seeder to host every file. As more people join, the throughput always remains the same. Can you name any other Internet protocols where “max transactions per second” is a thing? How many websites per second can HTTP support? How many emails per second can SMTP support? Blockchain is one of the only technologies in history that promises to become slower and more expensive over time. And hence people jump in early, to buy the “utility token” issued in block rewards, because it’ll become more scarce later as transaction costs skyrocket. All it does is attract speculation, not utility. And hence, rather than using crypto with smart contracts to power community applications such as https://intercoin.org/applications https://intercoin.org/applications — instead it is relegated to peer-to-peer applications that do transactions once in a while. This is what must happen to make crypto mainstream: https://intercoin.org/proposal.pdf https://intercoin.org/proposal.pdf … but most projects are stuck in just doing more of the same … blockchain, blockchain, speculation, speculation, yields, rewards out of thin air, etc. If no one successfully does this then we’ll live in a world where Big Tech controls our interactions and the Federal Governments (CBDC) controls our transactions. Very centrally planned world with no viable crypto alternatives. China already has WeChat central database and the social credit system. Canada already froze accounts of truckers. It’s early days.

cmrdporcupine 4y ago
"Freezing accounts of truckers" is not what happened.
- djbebs 4y ago
  It literally is though
  - 4y ago

time_to_smile 4y ago

Cheap money means there is no reality. This doesn't just impact crypto, but all of startup land and most of tech. How many startups have you interviewed with that were planning for "doubling head count this year!"? Nearly everyone I've talked to since 2018 has been planning for exponential growth with no idea what to even do with all these new hires. People are building and shipping products that fundamentally don't make economic sense. There have been plenty of IPOs for companies it's not entirely clear can ever turn a profit. There was a post on Hacker News a few weeks back claiming that "natural resources" don't exist and there are absolutely no limits to economic growth. I'm not fan of crypto but it's the natural consequence of the reality fading from memory. As the price of money goes up, reality will return with a vengeance.

ch4s3 4y ago
> There was a post on Hacker News a few weeks back claiming that "natural resources" don't exist and there are absolutely no limits to economic growth. I don't disagree per se, but a resource is really a material that human ingenuity has been applied to so that it can serve a useful purpose. There are lots of lots of materials that used to be turned into resources that we no longer bother with like whale oil, or current resources that used to just be gunk like crude oil. There are also resources which don't come from nature directly like computation, money, and so on. There is a lot of potential to find new uses for materials and resources in the future that could lead to further economic growth. Growth can be defined as as the increase or improvement in the inflation-adjusted market value of goods and services produced over a period of time. Services don't necessarily require pulling things out of the ground. Improvements in computing that increase productivity lead to growth. Making a person to person service more efficient or inventing a new service could allow for a lot of future growth. Is this likely to be infinitely sustainable? I have no idea.

bratwurst3000 4y ago

I meant that ironic. If one tries to answer the question the reality of crypto will begin to emerge :)