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> Coinbase has survived through four major crypto winters I don't understand - has crypto been around long enough to have winters? When were they?

bogomipz 4y ago
I read that and had the same thought. "Winters" at least in the context of AI which is where I believe the term in this context originated has been closer to 10 years [1]. It seems as though downturn would be more appropriate. Perhaps "winter" is becoming the preferred nomenclature because it's less alarming sounding? [1] https://www.actuaries.digital/2018/09/05/history-of-ai-winters/ https://www.actuaries.digital/2018/09/05/history-of-ai-winte...
the_biot 4y ago
You ever get the feeling cryptocurrency-related companies and a large chunk of their customer base live in their own reality? I think they have seasons now.
oneeyedpigeon 4y ago
If we're talking Bitcoin: - Early 2014 ($1,000 -> $300) - Late 2018/Early 2018 ($19,500 -> $6,800) - April 2021 ($63,000 -> $35,000) - Nov 2021-Now ($67,000-> $22,000)
- chrisseaton 4y ago
  I think 'winter' implies a long period of dormancy. The 'AI winter' was like a decade long. These were normal corrections.
  - shawabawa3 4y ago
    in each case there was a 3-4 year period of relative dormancy because the next hype cycle
- rexreed 4y ago
  Sounds like typical market swings and gyrations in highly speculative markets. Happens in other boom-bust speculation assets from gold to oil to tulips. Are these "winters" or just wild market swings?
- tluyben2 4y ago
  This one will probably be a lot larger though; crypto hasn’t seen a real economic recession as such and so many people believe (but in religious way) that it can weather it. If might survive but so far it just crashes together with everything and we will see below 10k this year for btc as people want and need cash and inflation hedges.
  - time_to_smile 4y ago
    In full agreement here. Crypto will really crash when people who have money invested in crypto really need that money. The past few "crashes" were just emotion driven, but for the most part people had plenty of money on hand (at least the current cohorts invested in crypto). This time we have a lot more everyday people invested and they have much smaller buffers to handle financial crisis. They're going to want to get their money out of crypto, not because they're nervous about the price, but because they have other bills to pay. My guess is that will lead to the ultimate crash of crypto where it will return to a hobbyist activity for a few curious technical people.

bogomipz 4y ago

I read that and had the same thought. "Winters" at least in the context of AI which is where I believe the term in this context originated has been closer to 10 years [1]. It seems as though downturn would be more appropriate. Perhaps "winter" is becoming the preferred nomenclature because it's less alarming sounding? [1] https://www.actuaries.digital/2018/09/05/history-of-ai-winters/ https://www.actuaries.digital/2018/09/05/history-of-ai-winte...

the_biot 4y ago

You ever get the feeling cryptocurrency-related companies and a large chunk of their customer base live in their own reality? I think they have seasons now.

oneeyedpigeon 4y ago

If we're talking Bitcoin: - Early 2014 ($1,000 -> $300) - Late 2018/Early 2018 ($19,500 -> $6,800) - April 2021 ($63,000 -> $35,000) - Nov 2021-Now ($67,000-> $22,000)

chrisseaton 4y ago
I think 'winter' implies a long period of dormancy. The 'AI winter' was like a decade long. These were normal corrections.
- shawabawa3 4y ago
  in each case there was a 3-4 year period of relative dormancy because the next hype cycle
rexreed 4y ago
Sounds like typical market swings and gyrations in highly speculative markets. Happens in other boom-bust speculation assets from gold to oil to tulips. Are these "winters" or just wild market swings?
tluyben2 4y ago
This one will probably be a lot larger though; crypto hasn’t seen a real economic recession as such and so many people believe (but in religious way) that it can weather it. If might survive but so far it just crashes together with everything and we will see below 10k this year for btc as people want and need cash and inflation hedges.
- time_to_smile 4y ago
  In full agreement here. Crypto will really crash when people who have money invested in crypto really need that money. The past few "crashes" were just emotion driven, but for the most part people had plenty of money on hand (at least the current cohorts invested in crypto). This time we have a lot more everyday people invested and they have much smaller buffers to handle financial crisis. They're going to want to get their money out of crypto, not because they're nervous about the price, but because they have other bills to pay. My guess is that will lead to the ultimate crash of crypto where it will return to a hobbyist activity for a few curious technical people.