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For non-UK people: There are four nations in the UK (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland). But England has roughly 90% of the population of the UK. So
by cstross 4y ago
For non-UK people:
There are four nations in the UK (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland).
But England has roughly 90% of the population of the UK. So what England votes for in an all-nations referendum, the rest of the UK gets.
England voted for Brexit by a narrow-ish majority. But Scotland voted against Brexit by a huge margin -- 62/38, or approximately 3:2.
Ironically, the year before the Brexit referendum there was a Scottish independence referendum where "remain part of the UK" won, 55/45. One of the promises the remain campaign made was that staying in the UK was the only way to guarantee Scotland could stay in the EU.
So there's a strong sense here in Scotland that we were misled, and presented with a bait-and-switch last time round.
Finally, Scotland has a very different political climate from England, with a much weaker far right, stronger far left, and a dominant centre left government. While since 2017, England has increasingly drifted towards the far right.
- Wildgoose 4y agoYou missed out the part that Wales also voted for Brexit, (52.5% to 47.5%) and that England actually voted strongly for Brexit (53.6% to 46.4%) only to have that result diluted by Scotland and Northern Ireland. It was a UK-wide vote, not an individual nation vote.
- mcv 4y agoBut the fact remains that Scotland very strongly wants to remain in the EU, and only a year before voted to remain part of the UK in order to stay in the EU. That was absolutely an ugly bait-and-switch, and I'd be incredibly upset about it if I was Scottish. I'm frankly surprised there hasn't been a massive independence movement directly following the Brexit referendum.
- Wildgoose 4y agoYou can't make the statement that Scotland only voted to remain part of the UK in order to remain in the EU. That was just one of many factors. More to the point is that EU citizens resident in Scotland were given a vote on the matter and apparently they overwhelmingly voted Remain because it was in their direct interests to do so. And in no way can it be described as "an ugly bait-and-switch" when the Establishment had no desire to leave the EU, they were just as surprised at the Brexit result as everybody else.
- mcv 4y agoIt was one of many factors, but the independence referendum voted to stay in the UK by a fairly thin margin. Had this not been a factor, had the people who cared about EU membership voted for independence instead, the independence vote would have won. They voted to remain in the UK because they thought at the time it was in their best interest to do so. They had no idea at the time that their country would leave the EU. In retrospect, it would have been in their best interest to leave and rejoin the EU. It can absolutely be described as a bait and switch. Maybe it wasn't explicitly planned as such at the time, but it definitely turned out that way.
- chrisseaton 4y ago> stronger far left I’m not sure there’s any significant ‘far left’ in Scotland. What groups are you thinking of? There’s also of course a very large nationalist component.
- smcl 4y agoFirstly I'd agree that there's not a significant far left political party in Scotland (Scottish Greens, perhaps?) but it is still more left-leaning overall. But re the "nationalist" bit - that word is overloaded. So the word usually means a couple of things: 1. "far-right beliefs that centre on religious and ethnic hatred" 2. or, "a desire to become an independent nation" In this case when people say the SNP is nationalist it's the second - their policy is that Scotland should be an independent country. For what it's worth they seem to have a strong pro-immigration stance[0] and a belief in racial equality[1], which are usually things type #1 nationalists are heavily against - so take from that what you will. [0] - https://www.snp.org/policies/pb-what-is-the-snp-s-policy-on-immigration/ https://www.snp.org/policies/pb-what-is-the-snp-s-policy-on-... [1] - https://www.snp.org/policies/pb-what-actions-are-the-snp-taking-on-race-equality/ https://www.snp.org/policies/pb-what-actions-are-the-snp-tak...
- eyko 4y agoNationalism in the context of SNP (and as a concept in general) simply refers to the desire/belief that the state and nation should be synonymous. The problem is that not everyone's interpretation of national identity is the same, so the in the end all you get is populism used to push a belief. The answer to the question "What is Scotland, anyway?" is not as clear as politicians would like it to be.
- smcl 4y agoOk but in real-world usage "nationalist = far right = nazis = bad". So I was clarifying that while that is not untrue, nobody is saying the Scottish independence movement or the SNP are that.
- 4y ago
- carnitine 4y agoI’d say post-Brexit England has drifted away from the far right. The whole EDL/Britain First/UKIP sentiment has only waned massively since then. The ruling government has not come close to far right at any point.
- nextstep 4y agoThis is the funniest comment in this whole thread. Many of the ideas of UKIP and the others have been adopted by the Tories! And the main opposition party (Labour) has been taken over by centre-right neoliberals. The left had a tiny bit of power pre-Brexit. Now it has none.
- NoGravitas 4y agoYep, Labor has had neoliberal leadership since the 90s, but they finally thoroughly purged their left a couple of years ago.
- smcl 4y agoPerhaps the fringe far-right parties have all but disintegrated, but the Tories have certainly drifted rightward and they're essentially untouchable in England in spite of ... well, everything
- cstross 4y agoThat's my point. UKIP and BXP disintegrated because their more competent members colonized the Conservative Party, which is now much more radical and far-right than it was under Cameron. The only surviving cabinet minister from Cameron's era (2010-2016) is Michael Gove. The rest are all new faces with far right credentials and a commitment to the hardest of hard Brexits.
- eushebdbsh 4y agoso they haven't drifted away from the right. the centre has moved right
- 4y ago
- veltas 4y agoIf Scottish leave voters hadn't turned out then the referendum would have resulted in "remain". So it's interesting to say in that context that "Scotland voted to remain" as many people simplify it to. 3:2 is a big margin and it's meaningful, but it doesn't define Scots.
- aerique 4y agoAnd if Scottish "remain" voters hadn't turned out?
- veltas 4y ago...no difference to the result, but big difference to the interpretation (as it would be for leavers not turning out). My point is just that Scotland isn't one person, there were plenty of leavers there.
- ben_w 4y agoThis is why, despite my reaction to Brexit (plus some other things) being to move from the UK to Berlin, I never really bought into the idea of a second referendum — even when broken down to individual constituencies, most were evenly split and relatively few were decisive either way. (I did put my name to a few of the relevant post referendum petitions, but as a way to signal my opinions — it was already clear to me that the government doesn’t really listen to any of the petitions).
- zwirbl 4y agoThat's a really creative way to spin a majority "remain" vote into a "leave" narrative
- veltas 4y agoIt's not creative, it's just being precise. And it's not even pro leave, it's just not as anti-leave as the inaccurate narrative. I voted remain: not everything said about Brexit is rhetoric.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- osullivj 4y agoNorthern Ireland is not a nation. Ireland is a nation with four provinces: Ulster, Leinster, Munster and Connaught. Six of Ulster's nine counties are part of the UK, and the other three are part of the Repulblic of Ireland.
- Danieru 4y agoThe Irish are a nation, a people with a unique language and identity. That is what OP is referring to. It the same definition of nation as in "nation state". Namely a nation state is a state with one dominant people. Germany, Japan, Thailand, Ireland, are nation states. US, UK, are by their nature not nation states. So yes, North Ireland represents a nation seperate to the English, the Welsh, or the Scotts.
- fennecfoxen 4y agoMore directly, Northern Ireland is where the king of the English nation once sent the peoples of England to colonize the lands of the Irish nation. These peoples thus settled have remained culturally distinct as the favored elites of the ruling colonial power, and are presently the majority in the area, which is why the area did not join with greater Ireland during Irish independence. The people of Northern Ireland today tend to want either continued union with the kingdom ruling Great Britain, or union with the rest of Ireland — depending whether their families are of British origin or Irish. The thought of post-Brexit passport control and customs for travel between the territories comprising Northern Ireland and either Great Britain or Ireland is thus a major political football (far worse in the case of the border with Ireland, because it is a land border and that requires walls.)
- ChildOfChaos 4y agoYes but does it matter? How far do you break those stats down, it's just a matter of manipulating them to get whatever point you want. Say you break it down to a single street which might have voted 90% remain, should that street then be declared independent? There are always going to be areas that believe stronger in one idea or another but that doesn't mean those areas should be separate from each other, the whole point of Europe is the idea of being stronger together but then in which case why not keep Scotland part of the UK? What really is scotlands issue, is not that they need indolence from the UK, they need a better UK government and plenty of people in England believe this also, independence is not required.
- ericmay 4y agoYea I think you’ve really got a great point here overall. Personally I think smaller government is better, and it makes sense that Scotland could or perhaps should become a separate nation from the rest of the UK. But… you can’t support that without also supporting Brexit IMO because there is no meaningful difference in philosophy here. The main challenge for Scotland is EU membership if they break away. It’ll get vetoed by Spain who doesn’t want Catalonia to break away. Frankly, perhaps unfortunately, I don’t see Scottish independence in the cards for that reason. Fostering nationalistic, anti-UK sentiment for political power is a dangerous game to play when you’re going to remain in the UK and is loosely akin to all the pillow-rattling that Texans do about seceding. It also somewhat contradicts the mission of the EU. Why stop at Scotland? Why not Catalonia? Or Brittany? How does this not give fuel to secession movements in the US as well? You can’t have your cake and eat it too. You can’t “support self-determination except when I disagree with who is self-determining”.
- k_sze 4y agoDuring the Brexit debacle, I joked with my Scottish ex-boss that, one day, Scotland will leave the UK, rejoin the EU, and then reabsorb the UK. And then the UK will be renamed United Kingdom of Scotland instead of United Kingdom of Great Britain. He laughed.
- donedealomg 4y ago
- curiousgal 4y agoWill/Would the EU accept Scotland's membership though? What about the currency? It all seems so complicated
- hdjjhhvvhga 4y agoCurrency is one of these aspects that are the least problematic here (many EU countries have their own currencies, and it was the same with the UK). What is more challenging is that becoming an independent country takes time, and if it happens, Scots will have their own challenges. Joining the EU will definitely possible, but I can't imagine it would be a quick process. Whereas if the UK changed their minds and decided to rejoin the EU, you could expect it could happen within 3 years or so.
- oblio 4y agoThe EU would for sure accept the membership request. They'd probably accelerate it, even. Before Brexit the only blocker was a unilateral declaration of independence, which will not happen. Scottish independence will most likely be a mutual separation. And after that the Scottish budget will be hammered hard so I imagine they'd definitely want to join the EU ASAP to get help. Access to huge markets for exports, cheaper imports, EU funding for developing regions, etc.
- Xylakant 4y agoIt is all complicated, but have you had a look lately how complicated brexit is? So I'd say we're at the point where it's about picking which kinds of complications you prefer.
- Veen 4y ago> While since 2017, England has increasingly drifted towards the far right. I suppose it depends on your definition of “far,” but from an English perspective this seems like nonsense.
- randomsearch 4y agoThe Economist recently described English political views as "nasty". _The Economist_.
- dijit 4y agoConservatives have been drifting right to absorb UKIP, so while you're not technically wrong that England has edged closer to the far right, the reality is that the government is more right leaning than ever. I dare say even leaning towards fascism the way that they're rewriting rules to protect big dog.
- lucideer 4y agoThis is called the Overton Window. It's typically the case for any system you are within, that the majority will consider the local "norm" to be moderate/centrist/etc. Looking at international politics, or even (perhaps more relevantly) the history of UK politics, modern UK politics is extremely far right. Labour is a very good example (considered by many within the UK to be left). They have been right-wing since the "New Labour / Blairite" movement (verifiable either by comparing their policies to pre-Blair Labour, or to international socially democratic contemporaries). A similar example is the UK media coverage of Corbyn: his political views - which align very well with the Labour party historically & with international socially democratic parties - were portrayed as being communist/socialist. Corbyn's political ideologies never varied over the decades of his career, nor became more extremely left; rather modern UK discourse moved right, placing him left of the "new centre".
- 88 4y agoCorbyn self-identifies as a socialist.
- 4y ago
- bennysomething 4y agoSpeaking of being misled, we were pretty much promised by the Scottish nationalists that this was a once in a generation choice. Seems we voted wrong the last time so here we are again with all the uncertainty to go with it. Though right now I want the second referendum as it's probably the best way to end the uncertainty that SNP causing
- atoav 4y agoI am an outsider on the topic, but wouldn't such a stark change of the political landscape as Brexit be a really valid reason to ask the question again? After all, independence before would have meant exiting the EU, while it now could mean re-entering it. Independence is ultimately the question about how a region wants to see itself in the world, and the alliances you are in are a big factor in that qestion.
- native_samples 4y ago"I am an outsider on the topic, but wouldn't such a stark change of the political landscape as Brexit be a really valid reason to ask the question again?" You could argue that, but, the nationalists never did. Instead they said the issue would be categorically resolved by the referendum for an entire generation. Perhaps if they were a bit smarter they'd have thought ahead and caveated their promises, but they wanted to create artificial pressure that they thought would help them. Then they lost and it was immediately revealed that they were lying. It wasn't going to be a once-in-a-lifetime vote unless they won, in which case of course, they'd never let anyone vote on the topic ever again (if you believe they'd host a "let's rejoin the UK" referendum even in 50 years you don't know the SNP). Brexit meanwhile is not actually a stark change in political landscape. It has barely affected the lives of most people. It's not at all clear why that should make a difference when there are so many other wedge issues the SNP could also use to claim now it's all different. Really, if they wanted to ask the question again and win the best way would be to campaign for English voters to also be given the vote. Polls show a significant number of English voters would quite like to be rid of Scotland - whilst politicians really want to keep the union together, actual voters aren't so in love with it. Scotland sometimes gets perceived comes across as more trouble than it's worth: a left wing heavily subsidy dependent one-party statelet mired in corruption and with leadership that vigorously encourages anti-English racism.
- YeGoblynQueenne 4y agoThanks for that summary and a slight correction just because you tickled my pedant nerve: Indyref I was in September 2014, so two years before the EU Membership referendum, in June 2016. I worked for a company based in Edinburgh during the Indyref campaign and I remember the concern about being left out of the EU at the time. All my coleagues (obviously not a representative sample of Scottish society) really thought independence was not a good idea from a bussiness and financial point of view, although I don't reckon any of them were particularly friendly to the Tory government in England. Edit: thinking of it now, I'm getting the feeling that Scottish people were much more interested in being in the EU than the UK, at the time at least.
- c7THEC2DDFVV2V 4y ago*England voted for Brexit by a narrow-ish majority. But Scotland voted against Brexit by a huge margin -- 62/38, or approximately 3:2.* Brexit wasn't a case of each nation 'winning' so to speak. The 38% of the vote went to the total number of leave votes. Which contributed to the overall Leave vote. Point being Scotland did make a significant contribution to the Leave vote.