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Based on the visualization the algorithm seems to be: If you input that you expect to be unemployed for a short/long time, it returns that assumption. Only if

Based on the visualization the algorithm seems to be: If you input that you expect to be unemployed for a short/long time, it returns that assumption. Only if you say you don't know... Immigrant/descendant: High risk of long term unemployment, right away. (Edit: Apparently except non-western immigrants, based on the source code!) Age is the next check that can classify you as high risk, I didn't look for the threshold (Edit: 56, according to the source). As long as you're below that, the deciding factor is... How long were you employed out of the past 36 months? 12 months is apparently good. (Edit: <2 is the threshold). It seems like most of the questions don't seem to be considered (if the visualization is to be believed) and it's a very simple "if x return foo" style algorithm, not some fancy scorer/ML. Look for function setValues() in https://ledighedsalgoritmen.dk/p5vis.js https://ledighedsalgoritmen.dk/p5vis.js

notahacker 4y ago
> Immigrant/descendant: High risk of long term unemployment, right away. (Edit: Apparently except non-western immigrants, based on the source code!) The latter part is probably on the basis that non-Western immigrants mostly needed skilled worker visas, whereas descendents and 'Westerners' (which apparently maps to "EU members" in this case) don't. Though as with most of the rest of it I'd struggle to see this as a conclusion from advanced modelling and not just a stereotype kept relevant largely by not asking the descendent or 'Westerner' what type of work they'd been doing and how long they'd worked in Denmark
- hash07e 4y ago
  [dead]
  - bildung 4y ago
    Germany is a bit special here because refugees often are not allowed to work at all, or, depending on their status, are only allowed to work under certain conditions. This was introduced by the conservative parties as a juridical answer to fears of immigrants "stealing" jobs.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - hash07e 4y ago
      [dead]
      - bildung 4y ago
        It's literally law, and has been for decades. See here, directly from the federal government: https://www.bmas.de/DE/Arbeit/Fachkraeftesicherung-und-Integration/Migration-und-Arbeit/Flucht-und-Aysl/arbeitsmarktzugang-fuer-fluechtlinge.html https://www.bmas.de/DE/Arbeit/Fachkraeftesicherung-und-Integ...
        hash07e 4y ago
        From google translator 1. after three months for asylum seekers who are not obliged to live in a reception facility, 2. after six months of asylum seekers with minor children, 3. after nine months of asylum seekers without minor children (even despite the obligation to live in a reception facility). Comparing to US A 565 Authorization to work in US is at 6-9 months wait. that study data was from 2016 onwards... There was enough time..
        bildung 4y ago
        Those are * minimum times, i.e. they don't automatically have rights afterwards, but have to obtain a permission for working first ("Arbeitserlaubnis") * those minimum times prolong as long as immigrants live in special immigrant housing ("Aufnahmeeinrichtung"), i.e. as long es they don't live in normal housing. Which they can only get if the ministry grants them that (in my town there are still quite a share of syrian immigrants living in that kind of housing, not normal housing in town). * additionally, even after that, the employer has to show that a) no German of comparable qualification wanted the job, and b) no EU citizen of comparable qualification wanted the job. Edit: > that study data was from 2016 onwards... There was enough time.. "onwards" is only 2017. Your source only compares 2016 to 2017. 2016 is the year when most syrian refugees arrived in Germany. https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fl%C3%BCchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_2015/2016#/media/Datei:Zahl_der_Erstantr%C3%A4ge_auf_Asyl_(Eurostat).svg https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fl%C3%BCchtlingskrise_in_Deuts...
  - DoughnutHole 4y ago
    You've completely misrepresented the statements of that document - it's specifically about refugees, not all "men and woman from non western countries". Of course refugees are vastly more likely to be unemployed - 2/3 came from the Syrian civil war and there's no guarantee of entering the country with in-demand skills or any understanding of the language. Germany has 1.24 million refugees, but it has ~14 million first-generation immigrants including over a million Turks. People who immigrated for work and had to apply for visas are going to have completely different employment outcomes than a surge of war refugees.
    - hash07e 4y ago
      So please provide the stats from "first-generation" immigrants. They are public right? Right?
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
      - bildung 4y ago
        By law their residency was on the condition of employment or self-employment, so close to 100% by definition. Nowadays they are either naturalized (so no immigrants anymore) or pensioned, or returned back home after their work life ended, or already died. Keep in mind that this immigration wave was 40 to 50 years ago. And yes, all of this is easily findable public data.
        hash07e 4y ago
        "By law their residency was on the condition of employment or self-employment, so close to 100% by definition" That is a very strong "stimulus" to keep people working and being integrated. Do we have the same today? "And yes, all of this is easily findable public data." Please may you provide the link with first-generation employment status?
  - notahacker 4y ago
    I'm not sure why you think a statistic applying to a different group (refugees are not all "non-Western immigrants", especially not in Denmark) in a different country in a different direction is particularly relevant. Actually, scratch that, looking at your account history I can see exactly why...
- silvestrov 4y ago
  There are (compared to SV) very few asians in Denmark. They also integrate well so the Danish "I don't have a job" system isn't focused on them. It is a long-standing taboo to split "non-Western" into "middle east" and "asian". Avoiding the split makes the bad numbers less noticeable.
bjarneh 4y ago
> Look for function setValues() in https://ledighedsalgoritmen.dk/p5vis.js https://ledighedsalgoritmen.dk/p5vis.js It seems you've found the algorithm right there. Not only is this algorithm the good old mega-nested-if-test-of-hard-coded-answers for a few of the questions asked. It basically checks if you think you are at risk, then puts you "atRisk" if you are older than 56/about to retire/an immigrant/pregnant. Sadly; that is probably enough to report relatively correct values.
- hampereddustbin 4y ago
  There is another way to look at it; a student was able to visualize what they wanted with minimal investment in learning secondary tools to their actual field. Similar issue is often misattributed in other places like game engines aswell. For example Unity is often labeled as lower quality because of the correlation with bad code quality in many of the games made with it, while forgetting that this is precisely because it's so easy to get started with, more new developers choose it
- kqr 4y ago
  I don't know that it's so sad. If it replaced humans putting their fingers in the air and then pulling an answer out of their ass, it's probably a strong improvement.
hash07e 4y ago
- chki 4y ago
  Please don't do this here.
  - hash07e 4y ago
  - hnbad 4y ago
    HN seems to be fine with race realists and antisemites (just look at the person's recent comment history, they're not the first one I've seen either) as long as they don't go on excessively unhinged rants and resort to slurs. HN is very much trying to be a "marketplace of ideas" with all the faults and warts that come with being a marketplace (e.g. false or misleading advertising).
    - hash07e 4y ago
      [dead]
      - hnbad 4y ago
        This isn't a debate. What you're doing is called "sealioning" in online discourse, but you probably already know that. Not that this matters, as I have not "personally attacked" you nor even insinuated you are wrong. I have pointed out that you are a race realist. That is not a personal attack, that is an allegation of a belief. I'm inferring that from your own comment history about race and IQ, e.g. your statement that "IQ is mostly genetic"[0][1], which you brought up twice in different conversations in your otherwise very short comment history. If "IQ is mostly genetic" and (to paraphrase one of your comments) "favoring high IQ means favoring Asians" that means in your view there is such a thing as a genetic "Asian race" that connotates inherently higher IQ than other "races" purely on a genetic level. That is a race realist claim by any other name. [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31671804 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31671804 [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31251492 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31251492
wodenokoto 4y ago
> "if x return foo" style algorithm, not some fancy scorer/ML It's a decision tree. Decision trees falls under ML. The thresholds are learned from data. I would imagine they had to use a decision tree in order to tell users and case workers _why_ they are at risk. The algorithm has been heavily criticized for putting basically all non-western immigrants into the "high risc"-group, but if the job market historically hasn't been willing to hire high performing, non-western immigrants, isn't it the whole point of building an algorithm from data? To shed light on this?
- tgsovlerkhgsel 4y ago
  The interesting thing is that at least the version on this website does NOT put non-Western immigrants into the high risk group. It puts Western immigrants (and descendants) there, and non-Western descendants, but not non-Western immigrants themselves!
- kaoD 4y ago
  Feels like a decision tree is not the kind of algorithm that can solve this problem due to its multidimensional nature. It's very vulnerable to Simpson's paradox. It may be right most of the time if we lump everyone in the same bag, but that is not helpful at all. Also, having the self-evaluated unemployment risk the first deciding factor seems to defeat the purpose.
- googlryas 4y ago
  A fixed decision tree isn't machine learning. If the tree can be updated or generated by code, then sure, but a human just writing a decision tree has nothing to do with machine learning.

notahacker 4y ago

> Immigrant/descendant: High risk of long term unemployment, right away. (Edit: Apparently except non-western immigrants, based on the source code!) The latter part is probably on the basis that non-Western immigrants mostly needed skilled worker visas, whereas descendents and 'Westerners' (which apparently maps to "EU members" in this case) don't. Though as with most of the rest of it I'd struggle to see this as a conclusion from advanced modelling and not just a stereotype kept relevant largely by not asking the descendent or 'Westerner' what type of work they'd been doing and how long they'd worked in Denmark

hash07e 4y ago
[dead]
- bildung 4y ago
  Germany is a bit special here because refugees often are not allowed to work at all, or, depending on their status, are only allowed to work under certain conditions. This was introduced by the conservative parties as a juridical answer to fears of immigrants "stealing" jobs.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - hash07e 4y ago
    [dead]
    - bildung 4y ago
      It's literally law, and has been for decades. See here, directly from the federal government: https://www.bmas.de/DE/Arbeit/Fachkraeftesicherung-und-Integration/Migration-und-Arbeit/Flucht-und-Aysl/arbeitsmarktzugang-fuer-fluechtlinge.html https://www.bmas.de/DE/Arbeit/Fachkraeftesicherung-und-Integ...
      - hash07e 4y ago
        From google translator 1. after three months for asylum seekers who are not obliged to live in a reception facility, 2. after six months of asylum seekers with minor children, 3. after nine months of asylum seekers without minor children (even despite the obligation to live in a reception facility). Comparing to US A 565 Authorization to work in US is at 6-9 months wait. that study data was from 2016 onwards... There was enough time..
        bildung 4y ago
        Those are * minimum times, i.e. they don't automatically have rights afterwards, but have to obtain a permission for working first ("Arbeitserlaubnis") * those minimum times prolong as long as immigrants live in special immigrant housing ("Aufnahmeeinrichtung"), i.e. as long es they don't live in normal housing. Which they can only get if the ministry grants them that (in my town there are still quite a share of syrian immigrants living in that kind of housing, not normal housing in town). * additionally, even after that, the employer has to show that a) no German of comparable qualification wanted the job, and b) no EU citizen of comparable qualification wanted the job. Edit: > that study data was from 2016 onwards... There was enough time.. "onwards" is only 2017. Your source only compares 2016 to 2017. 2016 is the year when most syrian refugees arrived in Germany. https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fl%C3%BCchtlingskrise_in_Deutschland_2015/2016#/media/Datei:Zahl_der_Erstantr%C3%A4ge_auf_Asyl_(Eurostat).svg https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fl%C3%BCchtlingskrise_in_Deuts...
- DoughnutHole 4y ago
  You've completely misrepresented the statements of that document - it's specifically about refugees, not all "men and woman from non western countries". Of course refugees are vastly more likely to be unemployed - 2/3 came from the Syrian civil war and there's no guarantee of entering the country with in-demand skills or any understanding of the language. Germany has 1.24 million refugees, but it has ~14 million first-generation immigrants including over a million Turks. People who immigrated for work and had to apply for visas are going to have completely different employment outcomes than a surge of war refugees.
  - hash07e 4y ago
    So please provide the stats from "first-generation" immigrants. They are public right? Right?
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - bildung 4y ago
      By law their residency was on the condition of employment or self-employment, so close to 100% by definition. Nowadays they are either naturalized (so no immigrants anymore) or pensioned, or returned back home after their work life ended, or already died. Keep in mind that this immigration wave was 40 to 50 years ago. And yes, all of this is easily findable public data.
      - hash07e 4y ago
        "By law their residency was on the condition of employment or self-employment, so close to 100% by definition" That is a very strong "stimulus" to keep people working and being integrated. Do we have the same today? "And yes, all of this is easily findable public data." Please may you provide the link with first-generation employment status?
- notahacker 4y ago
  I'm not sure why you think a statistic applying to a different group (refugees are not all "non-Western immigrants", especially not in Denmark) in a different country in a different direction is particularly relevant. Actually, scratch that, looking at your account history I can see exactly why...
silvestrov 4y ago
There are (compared to SV) very few asians in Denmark. They also integrate well so the Danish "I don't have a job" system isn't focused on them. It is a long-standing taboo to split "non-Western" into "middle east" and "asian". Avoiding the split makes the bad numbers less noticeable.

bjarneh 4y ago

> Look for function setValues() in https://ledighedsalgoritmen.dk/p5vis.js https://ledighedsalgoritmen.dk/p5vis.js It seems you've found the algorithm right there. Not only is this algorithm the good old mega-nested-if-test-of-hard-coded-answers for a few of the questions asked. It basically checks if you think you are at risk, then puts you "atRisk" if you are older than 56/about to retire/an immigrant/pregnant. Sadly; that is probably enough to report relatively correct values.

hampereddustbin 4y ago
There is another way to look at it; a student was able to visualize what they wanted with minimal investment in learning secondary tools to their actual field. Similar issue is often misattributed in other places like game engines aswell. For example Unity is often labeled as lower quality because of the correlation with bad code quality in many of the games made with it, while forgetting that this is precisely because it's so easy to get started with, more new developers choose it
kqr 4y ago
I don't know that it's so sad. If it replaced humans putting their fingers in the air and then pulling an answer out of their ass, it's probably a strong improvement.

hash07e 4y ago

chki 4y ago
Please don't do this here.
- hash07e 4y ago
- hnbad 4y ago
  HN seems to be fine with race realists and antisemites (just look at the person's recent comment history, they're not the first one I've seen either) as long as they don't go on excessively unhinged rants and resort to slurs. HN is very much trying to be a "marketplace of ideas" with all the faults and warts that come with being a marketplace (e.g. false or misleading advertising).
  - hash07e 4y ago
    [dead]
    - hnbad 4y ago
      This isn't a debate. What you're doing is called "sealioning" in online discourse, but you probably already know that. Not that this matters, as I have not "personally attacked" you nor even insinuated you are wrong. I have pointed out that you are a race realist. That is not a personal attack, that is an allegation of a belief. I'm inferring that from your own comment history about race and IQ, e.g. your statement that "IQ is mostly genetic"[0][1], which you brought up twice in different conversations in your otherwise very short comment history. If "IQ is mostly genetic" and (to paraphrase one of your comments) "favoring high IQ means favoring Asians" that means in your view there is such a thing as a genetic "Asian race" that connotates inherently higher IQ than other "races" purely on a genetic level. That is a race realist claim by any other name. [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31671804 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31671804 [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31251492 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31251492

wodenokoto 4y ago

> "if x return foo" style algorithm, not some fancy scorer/ML It's a decision tree. Decision trees falls under ML. The thresholds are learned from data. I would imagine they had to use a decision tree in order to tell users and case workers _why_ they are at risk. The algorithm has been heavily criticized for putting basically all non-western immigrants into the "high risc"-group, but if the job market historically hasn't been willing to hire high performing, non-western immigrants, isn't it the whole point of building an algorithm from data? To shed light on this?

tgsovlerkhgsel 4y ago
The interesting thing is that at least the version on this website does NOT put non-Western immigrants into the high risk group. It puts Western immigrants (and descendants) there, and non-Western descendants, but not non-Western immigrants themselves!
kaoD 4y ago
Feels like a decision tree is not the kind of algorithm that can solve this problem due to its multidimensional nature. It's very vulnerable to Simpson's paradox. It may be right most of the time if we lump everyone in the same bag, but that is not helpful at all. Also, having the self-evaluated unemployment risk the first deciding factor seems to defeat the purpose.
googlryas 4y ago
A fixed decision tree isn't machine learning. If the tree can be updated or generated by code, then sure, but a human just writing a decision tree has nothing to do with machine learning.