3 ms·

This is silly. Musk will produce evidence that a material fraction of tweets are fake. Everybody knows it's actually true, and even if his evidence isn't as c

This is silly. Musk will produce evidence that a material fraction of tweets are fake. Everybody knows it's actually true, and even if his evidence isn't as compelling as advertised, it will still probably achieve what he wants -- which is the ability to force Twitter to negotiate a lower price.

Clent 4y ago
Public opinion will not force Twitter to re-negotiate.
- rurp 4y ago
  I'm not so sure about that given how quickly they rolled over for his initial offer, with hardly any attempt to negotiate. It's hard to say why they did, but popular opinion is a reasonable explanation. Now I think Elon has been acting in extremely bad faith throughout this process and I hope Twitter sticks to their guns, but I don't have a lot of faith.
  - jquery 4y ago
    It was a fairly large premium and it waived due diligence and had a $1B termination fee. I don't think the board expected Elon to sign the offer, it was very biased in Twitter's favor. But I think Elon was feeling much too impressed with himself and took the bait.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- jquery 4y ago
  Yeah, I don't understand why people think this is still in the "dealmaking" phase. Twitter got Musk to agree to a certain price. The deal is done. Either Musk buys Twitter at the agreed price, or he's forced to admit he's not rich to buy Twitter and hands Twitter $1B in penalties. unless I'm missing something it seems pretty cut and dry.
  - codefreeordie 4y ago
    Musk relied on the truthfulness of the quarterly filings by Twitter, which included claims that less than 5% of tweets were fake. If Musk can demonstrate that this is grotesquely false (which he probably can do, since it is obvious that at least 20% of tweets are fake), then he has a case against Twitter.
dekhn 4y ago
Who would trust Musk's evidence if he can't even estimate the volume of tweet data required to determine which users are bots? He lost this round and will have to find another way to get Twitter to lower the price (which is unlikely at this point).
threeseed 4y ago
Note that Musk's goal is not to prove that a fraction of tweets are fake. We know that. Twitter makes it clear publicly in their annual reports. It's to prove that there is a material fraction of fake tweets significantly above their number.
tsimionescu 4y ago
That is actually completely irrelevant to this conversation. The important part for Twitter's revenue, and the part they include in their financial statements, is about how many tweet reads are fake - that is what advertisers care about, since they don't pay per tweet, they pay per impression. That's what the 5% official estimate is about - how many Twitter readers are actually bots? This can't be estimated from tweet text regardless of how well you analyze it (especially since the overwhelming majority of tweeter users never send a single tweet). Even if 100% of all tweets were generated by bots, as long as real people come to Twitter to read them and occasionally click on ads that Twitter shows them, Twitter's revenue is secured.

Clent 4y ago

Public opinion will not force Twitter to re-negotiate.

rurp 4y ago
I'm not so sure about that given how quickly they rolled over for his initial offer, with hardly any attempt to negotiate. It's hard to say why they did, but popular opinion is a reasonable explanation. Now I think Elon has been acting in extremely bad faith throughout this process and I hope Twitter sticks to their guns, but I don't have a lot of faith.
- jquery 4y ago
  It was a fairly large premium and it waived due diligence and had a $1B termination fee. I don't think the board expected Elon to sign the offer, it was very biased in Twitter's favor. But I think Elon was feeling much too impressed with himself and took the bait.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
jquery 4y ago
Yeah, I don't understand why people think this is still in the "dealmaking" phase. Twitter got Musk to agree to a certain price. The deal is done. Either Musk buys Twitter at the agreed price, or he's forced to admit he's not rich to buy Twitter and hands Twitter $1B in penalties. unless I'm missing something it seems pretty cut and dry.
- codefreeordie 4y ago
  Musk relied on the truthfulness of the quarterly filings by Twitter, which included claims that less than 5% of tweets were fake. If Musk can demonstrate that this is grotesquely false (which he probably can do, since it is obvious that at least 20% of tweets are fake), then he has a case against Twitter.

dekhn 4y ago

Who would trust Musk's evidence if he can't even estimate the volume of tweet data required to determine which users are bots? He lost this round and will have to find another way to get Twitter to lower the price (which is unlikely at this point).

threeseed 4y ago

Note that Musk's goal is not to prove that a fraction of tweets are fake. We know that. Twitter makes it clear publicly in their annual reports. It's to prove that there is a material fraction of fake tweets significantly above their number.

tsimionescu 4y ago

That is actually completely irrelevant to this conversation. The important part for Twitter's revenue, and the part they include in their financial statements, is about how many tweet reads are fake - that is what advertisers care about, since they don't pay per tweet, they pay per impression. That's what the 5% official estimate is about - how many Twitter readers are actually bots? This can't be estimated from tweet text regardless of how well you analyze it (especially since the overwhelming majority of tweeter users never send a single tweet). Even if 100% of all tweets were generated by bots, as long as real people come to Twitter to read them and occasionally click on ads that Twitter shows them, Twitter's revenue is secured.