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It's inevitable. Just because it takes a long time doesn't mean it won't happen. Higher level abstractions = less labor required (e.g. serverless), plus additi

It's inevitable. Just because it takes a long time doesn't mean it won't happen. Higher level abstractions = less labor required (e.g. serverless), plus additional supply of labor = lower costs. Wages are always defined by the equilibrium point between supply and demand of labor, never by the value add of the job. Simple thought experiment, say you have a button that makes you $1m dollars every time it's pressed and it can be pressed only 100 times per day. How much do you have to pay somebody to convince them to press it each day? Now say you have the same button but only 1 person in the world can activate it. How much do you have to pay them to convince them to do it? The answer to these demonstrates the principle in quite an obvious way.

matwood 4y ago
> Higher level abstractions = less labor required (e.g. serverless), plus additional supply of labor = lower costs. I've been hearing this about new technologies also since the 90s - going to make programmers obsolete/need less programmers. What ends up happening is what's required expands. I'm sure there's some quippy law here. > Wages are always defined by the equilibrium point between supply and demand of labor, never by the value add of the job. Your analogy is only focused supply while keeping a fixed demand. In fact, 'value' drives demand. The reason why demand keeps outpacing supply is the value of technology is enormous. Will the demand side eventually slow? On a long enough timescale I have to say yes, but a lot of people have gone broke betting against the pace of technology.
- sumedh 4y ago
  > I've been hearing this about new technologies also since the 90s - going to make programmers obsolete/need less programmers. What ends up happening is what's required expands. I'm sure there's some quippy law here. We used to have manual QA now most of the testing is done via automation, there used to sys admins handling all the servers now its all cloud which can be handled by programmers/dev ops people. Maybe in the future we will have code as a service where most of the code is written automatically while few programmers oversee it.
- BuyMyBitcoins 4y ago
  >” What ends up happening is what's required expands.” I’ve found that abstraction doesn’t scale with Business Logic. Abstraction is good, absolutely, but the sheer number of strange edge cases, special processing rules, and “the client refuses to change their process whatsoever” only seems to increase. I sense this is why programs keep growing in scope despite all the wonderful Dev-tools, abstractions, and platforms we now have.
  - adam_arthur 4y ago
    Depends on the business. Bespoke logic maybe, but rules based logic such as tax considerations can be abstracted away by APIs etc. Look at the difference in LOE of starting an ecommerce business in 1999 vs 2022 for example. Also when you consider something like Docusign, you can have a pretty much feature complete product that requires little labor to maintain. You can always expand the scope of any product, but we started from 0 with web based/app software just a decade or two ago. Much of the common and widely useful programs will be largely perfected and require less active development as the years go by. Same thing with github. You can continue to add features, but the core value of the product is already written and in a serverless world, with appropriate automation, can be maintained by a small team. I really don't understand how somebody can think labor needs in software will never contract... the main point of debate should be on what a realistic timeline is.
throwaway14356 4y ago
i think the opposite might happen. coding would become like reading and writing with every desk job involving code. high level positions would require the same training and experience they do now with full stack added to them. like conveyor belt work becomes checking widgets for defects managers busy themselves with maintaining code. The code will grow endlessly creating more work than doing it by hand. the company db has a crazy amount of data that you will need to be able to query to be able to develop new insights. if it turns out to be useful you wrap it into the software or a separate app eventually you want the video data in the db with all the machine learning trimmings. there is no end to this but we wil fail to train people to the desired level

matwood 4y ago

> Higher level abstractions = less labor required (e.g. serverless), plus additional supply of labor = lower costs. I've been hearing this about new technologies also since the 90s - going to make programmers obsolete/need less programmers. What ends up happening is what's required expands. I'm sure there's some quippy law here. > Wages are always defined by the equilibrium point between supply and demand of labor, never by the value add of the job. Your analogy is only focused supply while keeping a fixed demand. In fact, 'value' drives demand. The reason why demand keeps outpacing supply is the value of technology is enormous. Will the demand side eventually slow? On a long enough timescale I have to say yes, but a lot of people have gone broke betting against the pace of technology.

sumedh 4y ago
> I've been hearing this about new technologies also since the 90s - going to make programmers obsolete/need less programmers. What ends up happening is what's required expands. I'm sure there's some quippy law here. We used to have manual QA now most of the testing is done via automation, there used to sys admins handling all the servers now its all cloud which can be handled by programmers/dev ops people. Maybe in the future we will have code as a service where most of the code is written automatically while few programmers oversee it.
BuyMyBitcoins 4y ago
>” What ends up happening is what's required expands.” I’ve found that abstraction doesn’t scale with Business Logic. Abstraction is good, absolutely, but the sheer number of strange edge cases, special processing rules, and “the client refuses to change their process whatsoever” only seems to increase. I sense this is why programs keep growing in scope despite all the wonderful Dev-tools, abstractions, and platforms we now have.
- adam_arthur 4y ago
  Depends on the business. Bespoke logic maybe, but rules based logic such as tax considerations can be abstracted away by APIs etc. Look at the difference in LOE of starting an ecommerce business in 1999 vs 2022 for example. Also when you consider something like Docusign, you can have a pretty much feature complete product that requires little labor to maintain. You can always expand the scope of any product, but we started from 0 with web based/app software just a decade or two ago. Much of the common and widely useful programs will be largely perfected and require less active development as the years go by. Same thing with github. You can continue to add features, but the core value of the product is already written and in a serverless world, with appropriate automation, can be maintained by a small team. I really don't understand how somebody can think labor needs in software will never contract... the main point of debate should be on what a realistic timeline is.

throwaway14356 4y ago

i think the opposite might happen. coding would become like reading and writing with every desk job involving code. high level positions would require the same training and experience they do now with full stack added to them. like conveyor belt work becomes checking widgets for defects managers busy themselves with maintaining code. The code will grow endlessly creating more work than doing it by hand. the company db has a crazy amount of data that you will need to be able to query to be able to develop new insights. if it turns out to be useful you wrap it into the software or a separate app eventually you want the video data in the db with all the machine learning trimmings. there is no end to this but we wil fail to train people to the desired level