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> Tesla may not be the future of EVs Based on what metric? I have a hard time looking at Tesla's sales, revenue, profit, production capacity growth and not thi

by kcb 4y ago

> Tesla may not be the future of EVs Based on what metric? I have a hard time looking at Tesla's sales, revenue, profit, production capacity growth and not thinking they will continue to be a leader in EVs far into the future.

fnordpiglet 4y ago
Does speculation require a metric?
- kcb 4y ago
  No? I asked a question.
- Gigachad 4y ago
  Do you have a citation for that opinion?
tempsy 4y ago
people said the same about Netflix vs other streaming competitors you’re the leader and category creator until one day you’re just another player in a sea of competition
mesh 4y ago
He said "may not", which is the same as saying "may".
- kcb 4y ago
  Ok...this isn't that hard. If someone says you may light on fire tomorrow. You're probably going to ask for a little bit of an explanation.
  - thrill 4y ago
    No, it's not that hard. He could have used the word "necessarily" after "not", but the meaning was still clear.
    - kcb 4y ago
      Ok. Glad you cleared that up...seems like the author of the statement is in disagreement.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
ldoughty 4y ago
I agree with the OP, and: There's no hatchback, mini, SUV, or truck models available yet... And it feels like Tesla is even further behind in these areas because they are not giving any roadmap details (that I've heard of), while other companies have offerings available now. I hope Tesla can remain a market disruption and continue to push people to electric, but they currently are a one trick pony (which isn't a bad thing, it let them enter the space)... But as a one trick pony, I would agree they do not currently "look like THE future of EVs"
- wumpus 4y ago
  Tesla's roadmap is that they're growing > 50%/year as long as their current product line remains hot.
  - gre 4y ago
    More and more teslas are spontaneously catching fire.
    - wumpus 4y ago
      There are a couple of EV models with a particular battery manufacturer (LG) that were recalled for a fire problem. 72,000 cars for GM Bolt, the most popular one. Tesla shipped that many cars in 2016, and is growing 50%/year.
- benhurmarcel 4y ago
  Isn't the Model Y an SUV?
rootusrootus 4y ago
Tesla can sell you a mid-size sedan or a CUV, ignoring the relatively small niche occupied by the S and X. Ford competes directly with the Y, and also in an entirely new segment Tesla does not compete in -- the pickup. Chevy has the pickup coming, and already competes in the affordable compact car segment (27K MSRP for a Bolt? That's getting into 'excellent value' territory) that Tesla does not compete in. GM also has the Hummer, which is blazing an entirely new trail. Then you have VW, Kia, Polestar, etc. Tesla has a nice head start, and a good charging network, but rivals are catching up fast and will end up outpacing what Tesla can offer. The Model S is aging, with no apparent revamp in sight, and if the Model 3 follows that same pattern then Tesla is quickly going to look outdated while the competition is one-upping each other in new designs. There's also a fair number of people who do care about reliability, don't want a touchscreen dashboard, don't care about fart gimmicks, and want windshield wipers that just work. AP is no better than the competition, and FSD is a gimmick that appeals to a very particular kind of buyer. I enjoyed my P3D but have no expectation I will buy another.
- vanshg 4y ago
  Model S is aging in what aspect? It was just refreshed. Do you want change for the sake of change?
LeoPanthera 4y ago
> Based on what metric? Well, personally, based on Elon Musk's Twitter. Unless he is leaving the company very soon, he's going to take the company down with him. From a more technical perspective, they're literally the only EV manufacturer selling cars in the US without a CCS connector. (With the minor exception of Nissan, who have already announced that the Leaf will switch from Chademo to CCS.) And finally, from an "I actually own a Tesla" perspective. I would never buy another one. Not because of the car, which is fine, but because of the service experience. It's awful. It's so bad, I have trouble putting into words how terrible it is. I live in fear that something will go wrong with my Tesla again, because getting it fixed will be yet another nightmare.
prawn 4y ago
I think they were qualifying their statement to avoid it getting sidetracked, and it still got sidetracked in the other direction!

by kcb 4y ago

fnordpiglet 4y ago

Does speculation require a metric?

kcb 4y ago
No? I asked a question.
Gigachad 4y ago
Do you have a citation for that opinion?

tempsy 4y ago

people said the same about Netflix vs other streaming competitors you’re the leader and category creator until one day you’re just another player in a sea of competition

mesh 4y ago

He said "may not", which is the same as saying "may".

kcb 4y ago
Ok...this isn't that hard. If someone says you may light on fire tomorrow. You're probably going to ask for a little bit of an explanation.
- thrill 4y ago
  No, it's not that hard. He could have used the word "necessarily" after "not", but the meaning was still clear.
  - kcb 4y ago
    Ok. Glad you cleared that up...seems like the author of the statement is in disagreement.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

ldoughty 4y ago

I agree with the OP, and: There's no hatchback, mini, SUV, or truck models available yet... And it feels like Tesla is even further behind in these areas because they are not giving any roadmap details (that I've heard of), while other companies have offerings available now. I hope Tesla can remain a market disruption and continue to push people to electric, but they currently are a one trick pony (which isn't a bad thing, it let them enter the space)... But as a one trick pony, I would agree they do not currently "look like THE future of EVs"

wumpus 4y ago
Tesla's roadmap is that they're growing > 50%/year as long as their current product line remains hot.
- gre 4y ago
  More and more teslas are spontaneously catching fire.
  - wumpus 4y ago
    There are a couple of EV models with a particular battery manufacturer (LG) that were recalled for a fire problem. 72,000 cars for GM Bolt, the most popular one. Tesla shipped that many cars in 2016, and is growing 50%/year.
benhurmarcel 4y ago
Isn't the Model Y an SUV?

rootusrootus 4y ago

Tesla can sell you a mid-size sedan or a CUV, ignoring the relatively small niche occupied by the S and X. Ford competes directly with the Y, and also in an entirely new segment Tesla does not compete in -- the pickup. Chevy has the pickup coming, and already competes in the affordable compact car segment (27K MSRP for a Bolt? That's getting into 'excellent value' territory) that Tesla does not compete in. GM also has the Hummer, which is blazing an entirely new trail. Then you have VW, Kia, Polestar, etc. Tesla has a nice head start, and a good charging network, but rivals are catching up fast and will end up outpacing what Tesla can offer. The Model S is aging, with no apparent revamp in sight, and if the Model 3 follows that same pattern then Tesla is quickly going to look outdated while the competition is one-upping each other in new designs. There's also a fair number of people who do care about reliability, don't want a touchscreen dashboard, don't care about fart gimmicks, and want windshield wipers that just work. AP is no better than the competition, and FSD is a gimmick that appeals to a very particular kind of buyer. I enjoyed my P3D but have no expectation I will buy another.

vanshg 4y ago
Model S is aging in what aspect? It was just refreshed. Do you want change for the sake of change?

LeoPanthera 4y ago

> Based on what metric? Well, personally, based on Elon Musk's Twitter. Unless he is leaving the company very soon, he's going to take the company down with him. From a more technical perspective, they're literally the only EV manufacturer selling cars in the US without a CCS connector. (With the minor exception of Nissan, who have already announced that the Leaf will switch from Chademo to CCS.) And finally, from an "I actually own a Tesla" perspective. I would never buy another one. Not because of the car, which is fine, but because of the service experience. It's awful. It's so bad, I have trouble putting into words how terrible it is. I live in fear that something will go wrong with my Tesla again, because getting it fixed will be yet another nightmare.

prawn 4y ago

I think they were qualifying their statement to avoid it getting sidetracked, and it still got sidetracked in the other direction!