4 ms·

I had a friend at Discover who said their (Disovers thoughts) on the next recession was 2017 or 2018. And since COVID hit, people have been yelling recession e

I had a friend at Discover who said their (Disovers thoughts) on the next recession was 2017 or 2018. And since COVID hit, people have been yelling recession every month since. At this point, I don't think there's much of a benefit for a regular joe to know when the recession is going to hit. Best bet is to ride it out when it does hit and have a few months (3-9) of savings to ride out the storm if you happen to lose your job.

Melatonic 4y ago
This is generally good financial advice in even the best of times (and probably longer than 3 months)
bee_rider 4y ago
Having a year or so of savings seems like a great idea generally, if you can swing it (and once the savings buffer is established, it doesn't require more tending). It switches many financial problems out of the "emergency" class, and emergencies are expensive to deal with. It is sort of like the opposite of an emergency credit card.
- basisword 4y ago
  It requires some important tending in the current environment, as that years savings is no longer a years savings. If you're not adding to it as inflation increases and costs rise you're in for a surprise when you need it.
  - wing-_-nuts 4y ago
    Ibonds my friend. Ibonds.
  - bee_rider 4y ago
    That's true, a little is necessary to keep up with inflation. But, qualitatively, 11 months and 12 months are pretty similar, and I suspect lots of people track their expenses imprecisely enough that inflation is in the error bars.
arberx 4y ago
If you look at what happened in 2017/2018 during the taper tantrum, then yes your friend would have been right but the FED actually kept stimulating.
- xeromal 4y ago
  I wasn't aware of that, but that's cool info. Thanks for chiming in!
paxys 4y ago
People have been predicting the upcoming recession every week since like 2012.
- itsokimbatman 4y ago
  Well economists have accurately predicted nine of the last five recessions after all!

Melatonic 4y ago

This is generally good financial advice in even the best of times (and probably longer than 3 months)

bee_rider 4y ago

Having a year or so of savings seems like a great idea generally, if you can swing it (and once the savings buffer is established, it doesn't require more tending). It switches many financial problems out of the "emergency" class, and emergencies are expensive to deal with. It is sort of like the opposite of an emergency credit card.

basisword 4y ago
It requires some important tending in the current environment, as that years savings is no longer a years savings. If you're not adding to it as inflation increases and costs rise you're in for a surprise when you need it.
- wing-_-nuts 4y ago
  Ibonds my friend. Ibonds.
- bee_rider 4y ago
  That's true, a little is necessary to keep up with inflation. But, qualitatively, 11 months and 12 months are pretty similar, and I suspect lots of people track their expenses imprecisely enough that inflation is in the error bars.

arberx 4y ago

If you look at what happened in 2017/2018 during the taper tantrum, then yes your friend would have been right but the FED actually kept stimulating.

xeromal 4y ago
I wasn't aware of that, but that's cool info. Thanks for chiming in!

paxys 4y ago

People have been predicting the upcoming recession every week since like 2012.

itsokimbatman 4y ago
Well economists have accurately predicted nine of the last five recessions after all!