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I was impressed by ARKK performance until I heard her podcast where she lays out her reasoning. Her idea was that some tech will change world so much that there
by sytelus 4y ago
I was impressed by ARKK performance until I heard her podcast where she lays out her reasoning. Her idea was that some tech will change world so much that there will be 100X return. This makes her buy into all kind of fishy things which we in tech know as usual startup BS that fails 90% of the times. The problem is that her bets are $125M instead of $125K. As someone working in tech, I thought she was just following buzzwords and hopping at least part of her portfolio would do 100X over 10 years. She is not a tech person. She isn’t a visionary. She has no magic crystal ball. Her fund is directional day trader and nothing more which means it will invest in all kind of bogus companies and likely lose or get lucky.
- DANK_YACHT 4y ago> Her idea was that some tech will change world so much that there will be 100X return. Is that really so different from the VC approach?
- lordnacho 4y agoIt's not but then it's more appropriate to use a VC vehicle where the money is locked up then an open ended fund that people can buy or sell every day. ETF is also investible by normal people, not just accredited investors.
- pyuser583 4y agoVC normally looks for deals like “stock that gets treated like a pseudo creditor”, so even if a company fails, they’ll break even. Also a seat on the board. VC really makes its money work for it. ARKK is just picking stocks.
- pharmakom 4y agoVC is much earlier stage. I think ARKK only invests in publicly traded companies. The potential for a 100x is much greater at earlier stages.
- refurb 4y agoExactly. A VC putting in $1M for a Series B and getting $100M out is within the realm of possible. Buying $10M of public stock and having it turn into $1B isn't quite so realistic, at least not on a continued basis that an investing thesis would require.
- sytelus 4y agoIt is not same as VC because (1) VCs enter way before IPO which allows 100X return, (2) ARK bets are far more bigger than typical VC rounds which means any failure hurts a lot.
- arisAlexis 4y agoListening to her podcasts she is indeed a visionary and knows a hell lot about tech. Exponential growth mindset for 100X is normal in this industry's visionaries, including the founders of the very medium we communicate now HN.
- carlivar 4y agoDid the founders here make their initial investments post-IPO for the 100x returns?
- arisAlexis 4y agoIf they bought Amazon and apple in the 90s for sure
- sytelus 4y agoBelieving that something will grow 100X is not same as being visionery.