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Do you have any evidence to support your view? Things like the Pareto principle suggest our ability to do science is greatly impacted by raising the total popu

Do you have any evidence to support your view? Things like the Pareto principle suggest our ability to do science is greatly impacted by raising the total population and creating more outliers who do extreme contributions.

vishnugupta 4y ago
China has made big progress in building mega infrastructures while at the same time aggressively pursuing population control strategies. They did so by reallocation of people from farming to factories. It could be argued that building high speed rail isn’t same as doing science. But it does provide excellent raw material for scientific research. I won’t be surprised if we start seeing scientific breakthroughs from China in next few decades. We have hundreds of millions of people using most of their cognitive bandwidth just to survive. Imagine what’s possible if even a fraction of those stop worrying about their survival and start pursuing their curiosity.
alexose 4y ago
To clarify, my view is that there are billions of people who never engage with the scientific establishment because they lack the means to do so. Among these are many people who might have made tremendous discoveries if they had grown up in a more privileged environment. I might point at the fact that tenure-track professors are 25 times more likely to have a parent with a PhD than the general population (https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/6wjxc https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/6wjxc). Also, here's a good, factual article illustrating my general point: https://www.nature.com/articles/537466a https://www.nature.com/articles/537466a Reading between the lines, I think your view is that the valuable contributors (the extreme outliers) will find a way to contribute regardless of background. I think that's true, to some extent, but less common than we give it credit for. I also think that ignores the majority of scientists who are not outliers but make important discoveries just as a matter of course. Discoveries that may inform future breakthroughs. Anyway, the truth is certainly somewhere in the middle. By growing the population of people who might make contributions (one way or another), we will increase the rate of contributions. I just think it's best from a moral, social, and ecological perspective to make the most of the minds we already have.
- zmgsabst 4y ago
  > Reading between the lines, I think your view is that the valuable contributors (the extreme outliers) will find a way to contribute regardless of background. This is you reading in a total strawman. There aren’t billions that would engage in science — there’s only 800 million in need of food security, total. Of those, we’d expect only some small fraction to engage in science at all — maybe 8M, of whom a few hundred thousand will make substantial contributions and a few thousand groundbreaking work. Of course we should help those people — but you’re off by orders of magnitude on your claims. I was objecting to your made up numbers, not whatever “between the lines” nonsense you read in to ignore that point. And driving a total increase will require more people — because increasing the world by 2B population will drive more results than those 800M ever could. (While also being more realistic than “fix poverty everywhere”.)
otikik 4y ago
It’s simple. If you don’t know when your next meal will be, you can’t spare a thought in solving cold fusion. In order to solve problems you don’t need “more people”. You need “more people with good enough living conditions so that they can work on solving problems”. This doesn’t necessarily means increasing the total number of people. It could go down. As long as enough people went from dispossessed to good enough, that would be enough.
- chii 4y ago
  > You need “more people with good enough living conditions so that they can work on solving problems”. no, this isn't true, because randomly feeding people isn't going to just magically make them able to solve problems like fusion. What is needed is productivity increases, from perhaps existing investments or new investments, which is then used to fund research work. This funding can come privately, or via public taxation. The popular image of an einstein like loner working in their own garage, funded by their own wealth (or some sort of social security funding), and creating world changing tech is such a mythos.
  - otikik 4y ago
    The same principle applies. It is still a prerequisite that that person needs to have the base of their piramid of needs covered in order to even think about investments or being enterprisey. Increase the quality of life of the population and you will get more of it.
gms7777 4y ago
In my experience, science is rarely driven by outliers. Most scientists are very smart of course, but the majority of scientific progress is shaped by slow, steady incremental work that builds on top of itself, rather than brilliant idea men.
- zmgsabst 4y ago
  Scientists are already self-selected outliers, eg 0.46% of undergraduate degrees are awarded in physics. So if you’re talking about a physicist, you’re talking about a tiny fraction. If you start talking about those who complete graduate studies, and the 1 in 100 of them who generates truly groundbreaking work… you’re talking about 1 in 50,000 or rarer. https://www.aip.org/statistics/reports/physics-bachelors-degrees-2018 https://www.aip.org/statistics/reports/physics-bachelors-deg...

vishnugupta 4y ago

China has made big progress in building mega infrastructures while at the same time aggressively pursuing population control strategies. They did so by reallocation of people from farming to factories. It could be argued that building high speed rail isn’t same as doing science. But it does provide excellent raw material for scientific research. I won’t be surprised if we start seeing scientific breakthroughs from China in next few decades. We have hundreds of millions of people using most of their cognitive bandwidth just to survive. Imagine what’s possible if even a fraction of those stop worrying about their survival and start pursuing their curiosity.

alexose 4y ago

To clarify, my view is that there are billions of people who never engage with the scientific establishment because they lack the means to do so. Among these are many people who might have made tremendous discoveries if they had grown up in a more privileged environment. I might point at the fact that tenure-track professors are 25 times more likely to have a parent with a PhD than the general population (https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/6wjxc https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/6wjxc). Also, here's a good, factual article illustrating my general point: https://www.nature.com/articles/537466a https://www.nature.com/articles/537466a Reading between the lines, I think your view is that the valuable contributors (the extreme outliers) will find a way to contribute regardless of background. I think that's true, to some extent, but less common than we give it credit for. I also think that ignores the majority of scientists who are not outliers but make important discoveries just as a matter of course. Discoveries that may inform future breakthroughs. Anyway, the truth is certainly somewhere in the middle. By growing the population of people who might make contributions (one way or another), we will increase the rate of contributions. I just think it's best from a moral, social, and ecological perspective to make the most of the minds we already have.

zmgsabst 4y ago
> Reading between the lines, I think your view is that the valuable contributors (the extreme outliers) will find a way to contribute regardless of background. This is you reading in a total strawman. There aren’t billions that would engage in science — there’s only 800 million in need of food security, total. Of those, we’d expect only some small fraction to engage in science at all — maybe 8M, of whom a few hundred thousand will make substantial contributions and a few thousand groundbreaking work. Of course we should help those people — but you’re off by orders of magnitude on your claims. I was objecting to your made up numbers, not whatever “between the lines” nonsense you read in to ignore that point. And driving a total increase will require more people — because increasing the world by 2B population will drive more results than those 800M ever could. (While also being more realistic than “fix poverty everywhere”.)

otikik 4y ago

It’s simple. If you don’t know when your next meal will be, you can’t spare a thought in solving cold fusion. In order to solve problems you don’t need “more people”. You need “more people with good enough living conditions so that they can work on solving problems”. This doesn’t necessarily means increasing the total number of people. It could go down. As long as enough people went from dispossessed to good enough, that would be enough.

chii 4y ago
> You need “more people with good enough living conditions so that they can work on solving problems”. no, this isn't true, because randomly feeding people isn't going to just magically make them able to solve problems like fusion. What is needed is productivity increases, from perhaps existing investments or new investments, which is then used to fund research work. This funding can come privately, or via public taxation. The popular image of an einstein like loner working in their own garage, funded by their own wealth (or some sort of social security funding), and creating world changing tech is such a mythos.
- otikik 4y ago
  The same principle applies. It is still a prerequisite that that person needs to have the base of their piramid of needs covered in order to even think about investments or being enterprisey. Increase the quality of life of the population and you will get more of it.

gms7777 4y ago

In my experience, science is rarely driven by outliers. Most scientists are very smart of course, but the majority of scientific progress is shaped by slow, steady incremental work that builds on top of itself, rather than brilliant idea men.

zmgsabst 4y ago
Scientists are already self-selected outliers, eg 0.46% of undergraduate degrees are awarded in physics. So if you’re talking about a physicist, you’re talking about a tiny fraction. If you start talking about those who complete graduate studies, and the 1 in 100 of them who generates truly groundbreaking work… you’re talking about 1 in 50,000 or rarer. https://www.aip.org/statistics/reports/physics-bachelors-degrees-2018 https://www.aip.org/statistics/reports/physics-bachelors-deg...