9 ms·

“Monkeypox can be fatal for up to one in 10 people and is thought to be more severe in children.” That is WAY more fatal than COVID

jazzythom 4y ago
- croes 4y ago
  Viruses trade nothing, it's not a decision but just the result of evolution.
  - chitowneats 4y ago
    I fail to understand why people feel the need to make pedantic comments like this. Of course the virus isn't trading, but there is an evolutionary tradeoff
    - jazzythom 4y ago
    - croes 4y ago
      Because some people still think that evolution happens by choice and that viruses always mutate to to be less deadly.
    - croes 4y ago
      Comments and sub comments like that are the reason for my "pedantic" reply. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31491058 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31491058
- hyperpape 4y ago
  Please don’t spread the idea that viruses necessarily become more virulent and less lethal. I believed this prior to Covid, but have subsequently learned that it’s not a reliable assumption. It may be true in some cases, but I’ve seen several scientists cast doubt on it, and you can easily find research saying it’s not always the case. It hasn’t really happened with Covid—Delta was more transmissible and equally lethal, Omicron is massively more transmissible with only a modest reduction in lethality.
  - jazzythom 4y ago
vesinisa 4y ago
That is likely an error. The actual fatality of this monkeypox variant is close to 1%, or one in 100.
- saalweachter 4y ago
  Also, all numbers you see for an emerging disease are likely case fatality rates; initial CFRs for COVID-19 were in the 10% range before tests were widespread.
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    Monkeypox is not an emerging disease. It's been infecting thousands of people a year for decades.
- croes 4y ago
  The central african variant of monkeypox has a fatality rate of 10% in children under 16. The cases now are the western african variant with a fatality rate of 1% for children. Rates are also different with better health care.
- dwaltrip 4y ago
  The article incorrectly reported that statistic? I’m just making sure I understand.
  - DannyBee 4y ago
    Yes. They are weasel wording it by saying "the illness has been fatal in up to 6% of infections". "the illness" here refers to a different variant of monkeypox than is currently being transmitted (or they are averaging the 1% fatal and 10% fatal variants). So it's the same illness only in the sense that both are monkeypox. They know all this, and are deliberately wording it this way so they can say it is more fatal than it is. Not that monkeypox is awesome, mind you, but the fact remains the current circulating variant is not the one that has been fatal in up to 6% of cases. (and also, that 6% is mostly children under 16. Again, not awesome, but the children dying in central africa to monkeypox, and children in the US/Europe/etc, have ... slightly different common health profiles )
Chilko 4y ago
From the article of this post - "In recent years, the illness has been fatal in up to 6% of infections." I assume this would mainly refer to cases in Africa however where survival rates may be different to due health care access.
- DannyBee 4y ago
  This is weasel wording on their part. Health care access is a factor for sure. But there are also two main variants - one western africa, one central africa. The central african variant has high fatality rate in children/teenagers (1 in 10) The western african variant does not (1 in 100). All current cases are the latter, not the former. (Not tons of data on health care factors involved in the two variants, but seems unlikely that the fatality difference is due mainly to health care). We also have effective vaccines that are fully FDA approved. They can even be freeze dried :) Production is always a factor, but if we needed to produce it fast, i'm sure it could be done. Put another way - this seems ... unlikely to go the same way as COVID if it becomes a thing. We don't need to go do tons of research and studies and figure out how to fights it and etc. We just need to produce an already-approved effective vaccine.
dsadsadsaddsa 4y ago
netsharc 4y ago
Luckily it doesn't spread by breathing...
mmcnl 4y ago
Light cases are usually under reported. This bias increases the fatality rate. Initial COVID fatality rates initially seemed a lot higher due to under reporting too. It even varied a lot from country by country due to different mechanisms for reporting. So personally I'd take this 1 out of 10 with a grain of salt.
oldgradstudent 4y ago
The initial reports were that Covid-19 had a case fatality rate of 15%. Since than we have massively expanded testing to unprecedented levels, so the mortality estimates are now dramatically lower, both for cases and infections. The two are not really comparable.
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  This is actually not at all what's happening here. Monkeypox has two variants. One has a 10% fatality rate, which is not initial - it's been measured over decades. The other is less than 1%. What's spreading right now is derived from the less fatal variant. So you're right that its not going to be 10% fatal, but it could have been, and it's not a new disease where we don't have good mortality rates, it's been here for decades.
  - oldgradstudent 4y ago
    From what I gathered, the fatality rate came from papers like [1]. These are case fatality rates (CFR) derived from the number of people presenting at clinics with symptoms severe enough. It cannot be compare to fatality rates of Covid where everyone who gets a positive antigen test, regardless of the severity of symptoms, or even existence of symptoms is part of the denominator. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8870502/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8870502/
    - sudosysgen 4y ago
      Not quite. Clusters of monkeypox have been studied, where the number of exposed people was known and they were traced, therefore clinical presentation was not a significant confounding factor: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC120683/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC120683/ Of course the sample size is limited, but they seemed consistent with other mortality data. Also, unlike in COVID, asymptomatic infection has never been demonstrated.
      - oldgradstudent 4y ago

jazzythom 4y ago

croes 4y ago
Viruses trade nothing, it's not a decision but just the result of evolution.
- chitowneats 4y ago
  I fail to understand why people feel the need to make pedantic comments like this. Of course the virus isn't trading, but there is an evolutionary tradeoff
  - jazzythom 4y ago
  - croes 4y ago
    Because some people still think that evolution happens by choice and that viruses always mutate to to be less deadly.
  - croes 4y ago
    Comments and sub comments like that are the reason for my "pedantic" reply. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31491058 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31491058
hyperpape 4y ago
Please don’t spread the idea that viruses necessarily become more virulent and less lethal. I believed this prior to Covid, but have subsequently learned that it’s not a reliable assumption. It may be true in some cases, but I’ve seen several scientists cast doubt on it, and you can easily find research saying it’s not always the case. It hasn’t really happened with Covid—Delta was more transmissible and equally lethal, Omicron is massively more transmissible with only a modest reduction in lethality.
- jazzythom 4y ago

vesinisa 4y ago

That is likely an error. The actual fatality of this monkeypox variant is close to 1%, or one in 100.

saalweachter 4y ago
Also, all numbers you see for an emerging disease are likely case fatality rates; initial CFRs for COVID-19 were in the 10% range before tests were widespread.
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  Monkeypox is not an emerging disease. It's been infecting thousands of people a year for decades.
croes 4y ago
The central african variant of monkeypox has a fatality rate of 10% in children under 16. The cases now are the western african variant with a fatality rate of 1% for children. Rates are also different with better health care.
dwaltrip 4y ago
The article incorrectly reported that statistic? I’m just making sure I understand.
- DannyBee 4y ago
  Yes. They are weasel wording it by saying "the illness has been fatal in up to 6% of infections". "the illness" here refers to a different variant of monkeypox than is currently being transmitted (or they are averaging the 1% fatal and 10% fatal variants). So it's the same illness only in the sense that both are monkeypox. They know all this, and are deliberately wording it this way so they can say it is more fatal than it is. Not that monkeypox is awesome, mind you, but the fact remains the current circulating variant is not the one that has been fatal in up to 6% of cases. (and also, that 6% is mostly children under 16. Again, not awesome, but the children dying in central africa to monkeypox, and children in the US/Europe/etc, have ... slightly different common health profiles )

Chilko 4y ago

From the article of this post - "In recent years, the illness has been fatal in up to 6% of infections." I assume this would mainly refer to cases in Africa however where survival rates may be different to due health care access.

DannyBee 4y ago
This is weasel wording on their part. Health care access is a factor for sure. But there are also two main variants - one western africa, one central africa. The central african variant has high fatality rate in children/teenagers (1 in 10) The western african variant does not (1 in 100). All current cases are the latter, not the former. (Not tons of data on health care factors involved in the two variants, but seems unlikely that the fatality difference is due mainly to health care). We also have effective vaccines that are fully FDA approved. They can even be freeze dried :) Production is always a factor, but if we needed to produce it fast, i'm sure it could be done. Put another way - this seems ... unlikely to go the same way as COVID if it becomes a thing. We don't need to go do tons of research and studies and figure out how to fights it and etc. We just need to produce an already-approved effective vaccine.

dsadsadsaddsa 4y ago

netsharc 4y ago

Luckily it doesn't spread by breathing...

mmcnl 4y ago

Light cases are usually under reported. This bias increases the fatality rate. Initial COVID fatality rates initially seemed a lot higher due to under reporting too. It even varied a lot from country by country due to different mechanisms for reporting. So personally I'd take this 1 out of 10 with a grain of salt.

oldgradstudent 4y ago

The initial reports were that Covid-19 had a case fatality rate of 15%. Since than we have massively expanded testing to unprecedented levels, so the mortality estimates are now dramatically lower, both for cases and infections. The two are not really comparable.

sudosysgen 4y ago
This is actually not at all what's happening here. Monkeypox has two variants. One has a 10% fatality rate, which is not initial - it's been measured over decades. The other is less than 1%. What's spreading right now is derived from the less fatal variant. So you're right that its not going to be 10% fatal, but it could have been, and it's not a new disease where we don't have good mortality rates, it's been here for decades.
- oldgradstudent 4y ago
  From what I gathered, the fatality rate came from papers like [1]. These are case fatality rates (CFR) derived from the number of people presenting at clinics with symptoms severe enough. It cannot be compare to fatality rates of Covid where everyone who gets a positive antigen test, regardless of the severity of symptoms, or even existence of symptoms is part of the denominator. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8870502/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8870502/
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    Not quite. Clusters of monkeypox have been studied, where the number of exposed people was known and they were traced, therefore clinical presentation was not a significant confounding factor: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC120683/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC120683/ Of course the sample size is limited, but they seemed consistent with other mortality data. Also, unlike in COVID, asymptomatic infection has never been demonstrated.
    - oldgradstudent 4y ago