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Metacalculus, a mass forecasting site, has steadily brought forward the prediction date for a weakly general AI. Jaw-dropping advances like this, only increase

Metacalculus, a mass forecasting site, has steadily brought forward the prediction date for a weakly general AI. Jaw-dropping advances like this, only increase my confidence in this prediction. "The future is now, old man." https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-system-is-devised/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general...

sydthrowaway 4y ago
How can we prepare for this? This will result in mass social unrest.
- refulgentis 4y ago
  You think so? I'm very high on the Kool-Aid, image generation and text transformation models are core parts of my workflow. (Midjourney, GPT-3) It's still an unruly 7 year old at best. Results need to be verified. Prompt engineering and a sense of creativity are core competencies.
  - visarga 4y ago
    > Prompt engineering and a sense of creativity are core competencies. It's funny that people are also prompting each other. Parents, friends, teachers, doctors, priests, politicians, managers and marketers are all prompting (advising) us to trigger desired behaviour. Powerful stuff - having a large model and knowing how to prompt it.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- aaaaaaaaaaab 4y ago
  Stock up on guns, ammo, cigarettes, water filters, canned food, and toilet paper.
  - boppo1 4y ago
    Nah, learn Spanish and first-aid. Being able to fix people is more useful than having commodities that will make you a target.
- dougmwne 4y ago
  I think the serious answer is that it is yet another labor multiplier like electricity and software. Our tech since the industrial revolution has allowed us to elevate ourselves from a largely agrarian society to space and cyberspace. AI, by all appearances, continues to be a tool, just the latest in a long line of better tools. It still requires a human to provide intent and direction. Right now in my job, I command the collect output of a million medieval scribes. In the future I will command a million Michelangelos. Should ML/AI deliver on the wildest promises, it will be like a SpaceX Starship for the mind.
  - sydthrowaway 4y ago
    Well, anyone over 40 will be fucked. There goes your utopia.
    - dougmwne 4y ago
      Computers didn't fuck anyone over 40, but they did create new opportunities for young people that slowly took over the labor market and provided a steady stream of productivity growth. Right now these are impressive benchmarks and neat toys that cost millions to train. This is going to be a slow transition to a new paradigm. We are not going to end up in a utopia any more than computers created a utopia.
    - machiaweliczny 4y ago
      No because once this is live, creating private (teaching) assistants and good UX will be cheaper.
tpmx 4y ago
I don't see how this gets us (much) closer to general AI. Where is the reasoning?
- _joel 4y ago
  Perhaps the confluence of NLP and something generative?
  - astrange 4y ago
    That doesn’t even lead in the direction of an AGI. The larger and more expensive a model is the less like an “AGI” it is - an independent agent would be able to learn online for free, not need millions in TPU credits to learn what color an apple is.
  - SemanticStrengh 4y ago
    Yes metaculus mostly bet a magic number based on perhaps and tbh why not, the interaction of NLP and vision is mysterious and has potential. However those magic numbers should still be considered magic numbers. I agree that in 2040 the interactions will have extensively been studied though but the conclusion of wether we czn go much further on cross-models synergies is totally unknown or pessimist.
- quirino 4y ago
  I think this serves at least as a clear demonstration of how advanced the current state of AI is. I had played with GPT-3 and that was very impressive but I couldn't even dream something as good as D-ALLE 2 was already possible.
- 6gvONxR4sf7o 4y ago
  Big pretrained models are good enough now that we can pipe them together in really cool ways and our representations of text and images seem to capture what we “mean.”
  - tpmx 4y ago
    Yeah, it seems like it. But it's still just complicated statistical models. Again, where is the reasoning?
chias 4y ago
"The future is already here — It’s just not very evenly distributed"

sydthrowaway 4y ago

How can we prepare for this? This will result in mass social unrest.

refulgentis 4y ago
You think so? I'm very high on the Kool-Aid, image generation and text transformation models are core parts of my workflow. (Midjourney, GPT-3) It's still an unruly 7 year old at best. Results need to be verified. Prompt engineering and a sense of creativity are core competencies.
- visarga 4y ago
  > Prompt engineering and a sense of creativity are core competencies. It's funny that people are also prompting each other. Parents, friends, teachers, doctors, priests, politicians, managers and marketers are all prompting (advising) us to trigger desired behaviour. Powerful stuff - having a large model and knowing how to prompt it.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
aaaaaaaaaaab 4y ago
Stock up on guns, ammo, cigarettes, water filters, canned food, and toilet paper.
- boppo1 4y ago
  Nah, learn Spanish and first-aid. Being able to fix people is more useful than having commodities that will make you a target.
dougmwne 4y ago
I think the serious answer is that it is yet another labor multiplier like electricity and software. Our tech since the industrial revolution has allowed us to elevate ourselves from a largely agrarian society to space and cyberspace. AI, by all appearances, continues to be a tool, just the latest in a long line of better tools. It still requires a human to provide intent and direction. Right now in my job, I command the collect output of a million medieval scribes. In the future I will command a million Michelangelos. Should ML/AI deliver on the wildest promises, it will be like a SpaceX Starship for the mind.
- sydthrowaway 4y ago
  Well, anyone over 40 will be fucked. There goes your utopia.
  - dougmwne 4y ago
    Computers didn't fuck anyone over 40, but they did create new opportunities for young people that slowly took over the labor market and provided a steady stream of productivity growth. Right now these are impressive benchmarks and neat toys that cost millions to train. This is going to be a slow transition to a new paradigm. We are not going to end up in a utopia any more than computers created a utopia.
  - machiaweliczny 4y ago
    No because once this is live, creating private (teaching) assistants and good UX will be cheaper.

tpmx 4y ago

I don't see how this gets us (much) closer to general AI. Where is the reasoning?

_joel 4y ago
Perhaps the confluence of NLP and something generative?
- astrange 4y ago
  That doesn’t even lead in the direction of an AGI. The larger and more expensive a model is the less like an “AGI” it is - an independent agent would be able to learn online for free, not need millions in TPU credits to learn what color an apple is.
- SemanticStrengh 4y ago
  Yes metaculus mostly bet a magic number based on perhaps and tbh why not, the interaction of NLP and vision is mysterious and has potential. However those magic numbers should still be considered magic numbers. I agree that in 2040 the interactions will have extensively been studied though but the conclusion of wether we czn go much further on cross-models synergies is totally unknown or pessimist.
quirino 4y ago
I think this serves at least as a clear demonstration of how advanced the current state of AI is. I had played with GPT-3 and that was very impressive but I couldn't even dream something as good as D-ALLE 2 was already possible.
6gvONxR4sf7o 4y ago
Big pretrained models are good enough now that we can pipe them together in really cool ways and our representations of text and images seem to capture what we “mean.”
- tpmx 4y ago
  Yeah, it seems like it. But it's still just complicated statistical models. Again, where is the reasoning?

chias 4y ago

"The future is already here — It’s just not very evenly distributed"