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Genuinely curious : Russia’s GDP is < 10% that of the US or China. What’s up with this fascination with Russia (economically speaking — the humanitarian tragedy

Genuinely curious : Russia’s GDP is < 10% that of the US or China. What’s up with this fascination with Russia (economically speaking — the humanitarian tragedy they are creating is a different topic)? The only question is if they align with the west or with china —-they’ve already lost as a super power, and their best strategic choice is to become a prized and expensive proxy between the west and china. The thing is, china and the west _trade_, so the calculus for russia is losing on all fronts. they can inflict a decade worth of pain to europe energetically, and then what?

lettergram 4y ago
All GDP is not equal. As an example, Ireland’s GDP was ~1/3 tourism, with covid they lost that GDP. Russia GDP is primarily raw goods, commodities. They also have a decent domestic market for manufactured goods. Look up the global production of wheat, natural gas, oil, etc and look for Russia and Belarus. To put it bluntly, USA GDP is a mix and has everything from commodities to information tech to finance. Russia is a producer of raw goods. Commodity prices are made at the margin, meaning a 1-2% reduction in supply could cause prices to go up 5-10% (similar for the reverse). So Russia has an outsized ability to both weather sanctions (they don’t import as much raw materials, particularly energy) AND the world must continue to purchase their goods and/or dramatically reduce in production themselves. For instance, German energy prices are up 500% (as of feb 2022) when compared to two years prior. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1267541/germany-monthly-wholesale-electricity-price/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1267541/germany-monthly-... It’s now up 1000-1500%, how is German GDP going to be impacted? While Russia’s will maintain much of its GDP, Germans will likely drop substantially, as they’re effectively deindustrializing. Their factories / industries can’t function economically at such high prices. > so the calculus for russia is losing on all fronts I see Russia winning on all fronts tbh. They’re increasing domestic resilience and culture. They’re also winning the war in Ukraine (see Mariupol, Donbas encirclement), and winning the economic war with the west paying them even with the sanctions. What’s their goals? To me it seems they are achieving the objectives Putin laid out at the rambling speech at the beginning of the war (independence from the west and “freeing” Russian sections of Ukraine) I find it so interesting people think Russia is losing. I just don’t see it.
- axiosgunnar 4y ago
  > I see Russia winning on all fronts tbh. I do not, and anyone else not trying to be contrarian and edgy on the back's of a humanitarian catastrophe does not either. Russia's goal was a blitzkrieg surprise win, measured in hours, taking over the capital and the government, before the West could even muster up sanctions. They have failed abysmally at that, and capturing a few towns in Eastern Ukraine (just a little bit more than they already had captured since 2014) is Putin's attempt to have something in his hands to present as a victory and hope not to get couped to death (a fate all warmongers rightfully deserve). Russia most certainly isn't winning.
  - lettergram 4y ago
    > do not, and anyone else not trying to be contrarian and edgy on the back's of a humanitarian catastrophe does not either. Russia's goal was a blitzkrieg surprise win, measured in hours, taking over the capital and the government, before the West could even muster up sanctions. Where does that assumption come from? No Russian source has ever said that. The only sources I’ve seen were the US propaganda arm. Putin said that they were now in a defensive war with the west (his words, not mine). I don’t think they expected that to be over any time soon. But just for fun let’s assume you’re correct. Their objective is to conquer Ukraine..? It still doesn’t change the fact Ukraine isn’t winning. They’ve lost territory, most of the military assets, and the territory they’ve lost thus far is their most productive (industry and agriculture is based around the coast). By no measure is that trending toward victory. Now my position on this — Recall, Ukraine had one of the largest standing armies prior to this war. Order of magnitude more prepared than Iraq in the 90s or 2000s. With better equipment, heavily entrenched and much larger by land mass. I don’t think there’s any way that Russia expected to conquer Ukraine with 50k troops (1/5 the size of Ukraine’s standing army) in 90 days. But I also don’t think Ukraine is the only theater of battle. The real war is the war of logistics and in that, Russia is far better prepared and capable.
    - greedo 4y ago
      To say your "facts" are in error is to say water is wet. Russian started the war with roughly 100 BTGs. These have roughly 1k troops when fully equipped (as you would expect before the start of hostilities). They've added another 10-15 BTGs to replace the 45 or so that have been attritted by Ukrainian forces. So no, they didn't expect to conquer Ukraine with 50K troops, but closer to twice that. RuAF also tried to decapitate Ukraine by seizing Hostomel with airborne troops, and then rushing Kiev with troops located very closely in Belarus. You don't commit airborne troops like this when you don't have a)strategic surprise, b) tactical surprise, c) air supremacy. Russia expected a quick coup de main, and when the VdV got wrecked in Hostomel, they lost the war. Since the invasion in February, Ukraine has recovered most of the territory they lost in the north. In the south, the RuAF has made minimal gains past the lines of the 2014 conflict. You believe that Ukraine has lost most of their military assets? They currently have more tanks than when the war started, due to how many they've captured from Russia. Not to mention what has been contributed by NATO (Poland/Czechia etc.). They still have a well functioning and effective air force that has prevented the Russian air force from exerting control over the battlefield. They even managed to sink the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. Russia has lost over 30k dead, and roughly 3x that as WIA. Over 1000 tanks. Over 350 aircraft (counting helicopters). Thousands of BMPs, MTLBs, BMDs, artillery, trucks, all destroyed. The RuAF has culminated. All Russia has achieved is shelling indiscriminately. They haven't shown the ability to hold terrain, to resupply their troops, to prevent the Ukrainians from doing anything they want. They couldn't even reduce Mariupol's garrison for three months. Russia's military, outside of it's nukes is a Potemkin affair.
chewz 4y ago
> so the calculus for russia is losing on all fronts Look at EURRUB at 7 years high... with forecast of going much higher.. Rouble is best performing currency (after short drop) this year (YTD)... Looks like Russia is wining the war big time... [] Ruble Hits 5-Year High as Gas Buyers Bend to Putin’s Will - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-20/ruble-surges-to-7-year-high-as-gazprom-clients-heed-putin-on-gas https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-20/ruble-sur...
- mejutoco 4y ago
  Without entering on who is winning and things like that. With the capital controls in place today idk how much the price of the ruble means.
  - chewz 4y ago
    You can google "Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar - Bretton Woods 3"... His thesis is that we are going from dollar based monetary order to commodities based order. Not everyone agrees with Pozsar (I don't) but this is making waves. Russia forcing Europe to pay for gas in roubles is significant step, no matter the outcome on the battlefields... And financial markets reflect that fact through EURRUB and USDRUB...
    - lettergram 4y ago
      Exactly, the war itself is much broader than Ukraine. It’s naive to consider this conflict a regional war.

lettergram 4y ago

All GDP is not equal. As an example, Ireland’s GDP was ~1/3 tourism, with covid they lost that GDP. Russia GDP is primarily raw goods, commodities. They also have a decent domestic market for manufactured goods. Look up the global production of wheat, natural gas, oil, etc and look for Russia and Belarus. To put it bluntly, USA GDP is a mix and has everything from commodities to information tech to finance. Russia is a producer of raw goods. Commodity prices are made at the margin, meaning a 1-2% reduction in supply could cause prices to go up 5-10% (similar for the reverse). So Russia has an outsized ability to both weather sanctions (they don’t import as much raw materials, particularly energy) AND the world must continue to purchase their goods and/or dramatically reduce in production themselves. For instance, German energy prices are up 500% (as of feb 2022) when compared to two years prior. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1267541/germany-monthly-wholesale-electricity-price/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1267541/germany-monthly-... It’s now up 1000-1500%, how is German GDP going to be impacted? While Russia’s will maintain much of its GDP, Germans will likely drop substantially, as they’re effectively deindustrializing. Their factories / industries can’t function economically at such high prices. > so the calculus for russia is losing on all fronts I see Russia winning on all fronts tbh. They’re increasing domestic resilience and culture. They’re also winning the war in Ukraine (see Mariupol, Donbas encirclement), and winning the economic war with the west paying them even with the sanctions. What’s their goals? To me it seems they are achieving the objectives Putin laid out at the rambling speech at the beginning of the war (independence from the west and “freeing” Russian sections of Ukraine) I find it so interesting people think Russia is losing. I just don’t see it.

axiosgunnar 4y ago
> I see Russia winning on all fronts tbh. I do not, and anyone else not trying to be contrarian and edgy on the back's of a humanitarian catastrophe does not either. Russia's goal was a blitzkrieg surprise win, measured in hours, taking over the capital and the government, before the West could even muster up sanctions. They have failed abysmally at that, and capturing a few towns in Eastern Ukraine (just a little bit more than they already had captured since 2014) is Putin's attempt to have something in his hands to present as a victory and hope not to get couped to death (a fate all warmongers rightfully deserve). Russia most certainly isn't winning.
- lettergram 4y ago
  > do not, and anyone else not trying to be contrarian and edgy on the back's of a humanitarian catastrophe does not either. Russia's goal was a blitzkrieg surprise win, measured in hours, taking over the capital and the government, before the West could even muster up sanctions. Where does that assumption come from? No Russian source has ever said that. The only sources I’ve seen were the US propaganda arm. Putin said that they were now in a defensive war with the west (his words, not mine). I don’t think they expected that to be over any time soon. But just for fun let’s assume you’re correct. Their objective is to conquer Ukraine..? It still doesn’t change the fact Ukraine isn’t winning. They’ve lost territory, most of the military assets, and the territory they’ve lost thus far is their most productive (industry and agriculture is based around the coast). By no measure is that trending toward victory. Now my position on this — Recall, Ukraine had one of the largest standing armies prior to this war. Order of magnitude more prepared than Iraq in the 90s or 2000s. With better equipment, heavily entrenched and much larger by land mass. I don’t think there’s any way that Russia expected to conquer Ukraine with 50k troops (1/5 the size of Ukraine’s standing army) in 90 days. But I also don’t think Ukraine is the only theater of battle. The real war is the war of logistics and in that, Russia is far better prepared and capable.
  - greedo 4y ago
    To say your "facts" are in error is to say water is wet. Russian started the war with roughly 100 BTGs. These have roughly 1k troops when fully equipped (as you would expect before the start of hostilities). They've added another 10-15 BTGs to replace the 45 or so that have been attritted by Ukrainian forces. So no, they didn't expect to conquer Ukraine with 50K troops, but closer to twice that. RuAF also tried to decapitate Ukraine by seizing Hostomel with airborne troops, and then rushing Kiev with troops located very closely in Belarus. You don't commit airborne troops like this when you don't have a)strategic surprise, b) tactical surprise, c) air supremacy. Russia expected a quick coup de main, and when the VdV got wrecked in Hostomel, they lost the war. Since the invasion in February, Ukraine has recovered most of the territory they lost in the north. In the south, the RuAF has made minimal gains past the lines of the 2014 conflict. You believe that Ukraine has lost most of their military assets? They currently have more tanks than when the war started, due to how many they've captured from Russia. Not to mention what has been contributed by NATO (Poland/Czechia etc.). They still have a well functioning and effective air force that has prevented the Russian air force from exerting control over the battlefield. They even managed to sink the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. Russia has lost over 30k dead, and roughly 3x that as WIA. Over 1000 tanks. Over 350 aircraft (counting helicopters). Thousands of BMPs, MTLBs, BMDs, artillery, trucks, all destroyed. The RuAF has culminated. All Russia has achieved is shelling indiscriminately. They haven't shown the ability to hold terrain, to resupply their troops, to prevent the Ukrainians from doing anything they want. They couldn't even reduce Mariupol's garrison for three months. Russia's military, outside of it's nukes is a Potemkin affair.

chewz 4y ago

> so the calculus for russia is losing on all fronts Look at EURRUB at 7 years high... with forecast of going much higher.. Rouble is best performing currency (after short drop) this year (YTD)... Looks like Russia is wining the war big time... [] Ruble Hits 5-Year High as Gas Buyers Bend to Putin’s Will - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-20/ruble-surges-to-7-year-high-as-gazprom-clients-heed-putin-on-gas https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-20/ruble-sur...

mejutoco 4y ago
Without entering on who is winning and things like that. With the capital controls in place today idk how much the price of the ruble means.
- chewz 4y ago
  You can google "Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar - Bretton Woods 3"... His thesis is that we are going from dollar based monetary order to commodities based order. Not everyone agrees with Pozsar (I don't) but this is making waves. Russia forcing Europe to pay for gas in roubles is significant step, no matter the outcome on the battlefields... And financial markets reflect that fact through EURRUB and USDRUB...
  - lettergram 4y ago
    Exactly, the war itself is much broader than Ukraine. It’s naive to consider this conflict a regional war.