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And those plans will be reconsidered in 5 years from now. Cheap Russian gas will likely flow again. And don't forget Ukrainian recent found giant gas reserves.

And those plans will be reconsidered in 5 years from now. Cheap Russian gas will likely flow again. And don't forget Ukrainian recent found giant gas reserves. One of the reasons for this conflict.

Krasnol 4y ago
Do you have some magic uranium ball which tells you the future or where do you get those useless claims?
jillesvangurp 4y ago
Don't underestimate the Germans. They'll get this done. They'll be pretty far done executing those plans in five years and probably will raise the ambition level rather than lowering it. I also predict they will trigger a pretty big economic boom doing so. All that money flowing into the economy will do a lot of good. They've actually been criticized for holding back too much in the last few decades. This looks like it might be the trigger that fixes that in a hurry. Cheap Russian gas might make a brief comeback depending on if Russia is able to fix its leadership issues that are causing the current crisis. Right now it is looking pretty bad. But nothing that a Russian revolution wouldn't be able to fix. If that fails to happen, I doubt the Russians are going to get a lot of gas business from Europe with Putin remaining in power. Basically right now they are dealing with the stick part of this stick/carrot strategy. But even if that does happen, the message that they can't be trusted was received loud and clear. Business as usual is not going to be a thing any time soon. Whatever they currently still receive in terms of gas revenues will start drying up either way. Oil is going to stop flowing pretty soon. And either the Russians close of the gas or the Germans will diversify their supply to the point where it won't matter if they do because the threat of the Russians cutting them off is now both very credible and completely unacceptable as a status quo. That will make gas a lot more expensive permanently for the Germans and will only increase their ambition level with respect to reducing their dependence on it. If heating prices double or triple permanently, people are going to be pretty eager and creative getting into more cheaper ways to heat their houses. That's already happening in a lot of places.
- paganel 4y ago
  Don’t think the Germans still know how to “get it done”. Afaik their power transmission network hasn’t received significant improvements (even though I had last read something on the subject a few years ago, maybe things have changed) and their energy prices were among the highest in Europe before this war started. I’m also very bearish when it comes to their car industry efforts to transition to EVs, but that’s a slightly different subject.
  - chess_buster 4y ago
    Our energy prices are designed to be high. It's not a reflection of market. It's a tool to force everyone to reduce power consumption. It's the "steering" interpretation of Öko-Steuer and friends.
  - nebalee 4y ago
    Regarding the extensions of the transmission grid the latest monitoring report (in German only) is available here: https://data.netzausbau.de/Vorhaben/Monitoring/Monitoringbericht_Q4-21.pdf https://data.netzausbau.de/Vorhaben/Monitoring/Monitoringber... About 25% is done or currently being build, about 50% is in the approval phase.
marcosdumay 4y ago
After you invest a ton of money into a sustainable solution, the one thing you won't do is invest all that money again replacing it with a temporary one. If the war lasts for long, that gas can easily become uneconomical.

And those plans will be reconsidered in 5 years from now. Cheap Russian gas will likely flow again. And don't forget Ukrainian recent found giant gas reserves. One of the reasons for this conflict.

Krasnol 4y ago

Do you have some magic uranium ball which tells you the future or where do you get those useless claims?

jillesvangurp 4y ago

Don't underestimate the Germans. They'll get this done. They'll be pretty far done executing those plans in five years and probably will raise the ambition level rather than lowering it. I also predict they will trigger a pretty big economic boom doing so. All that money flowing into the economy will do a lot of good. They've actually been criticized for holding back too much in the last few decades. This looks like it might be the trigger that fixes that in a hurry. Cheap Russian gas might make a brief comeback depending on if Russia is able to fix its leadership issues that are causing the current crisis. Right now it is looking pretty bad. But nothing that a Russian revolution wouldn't be able to fix. If that fails to happen, I doubt the Russians are going to get a lot of gas business from Europe with Putin remaining in power. Basically right now they are dealing with the stick part of this stick/carrot strategy. But even if that does happen, the message that they can't be trusted was received loud and clear. Business as usual is not going to be a thing any time soon. Whatever they currently still receive in terms of gas revenues will start drying up either way. Oil is going to stop flowing pretty soon. And either the Russians close of the gas or the Germans will diversify their supply to the point where it won't matter if they do because the threat of the Russians cutting them off is now both very credible and completely unacceptable as a status quo. That will make gas a lot more expensive permanently for the Germans and will only increase their ambition level with respect to reducing their dependence on it. If heating prices double or triple permanently, people are going to be pretty eager and creative getting into more cheaper ways to heat their houses. That's already happening in a lot of places.

paganel 4y ago
Don’t think the Germans still know how to “get it done”. Afaik their power transmission network hasn’t received significant improvements (even though I had last read something on the subject a few years ago, maybe things have changed) and their energy prices were among the highest in Europe before this war started. I’m also very bearish when it comes to their car industry efforts to transition to EVs, but that’s a slightly different subject.
- chess_buster 4y ago
  Our energy prices are designed to be high. It's not a reflection of market. It's a tool to force everyone to reduce power consumption. It's the "steering" interpretation of Öko-Steuer and friends.
- nebalee 4y ago
  Regarding the extensions of the transmission grid the latest monitoring report (in German only) is available here: https://data.netzausbau.de/Vorhaben/Monitoring/Monitoringbericht_Q4-21.pdf https://data.netzausbau.de/Vorhaben/Monitoring/Monitoringber... About 25% is done or currently being build, about 50% is in the approval phase.

marcosdumay 4y ago

After you invest a ton of money into a sustainable solution, the one thing you won't do is invest all that money again replacing it with a temporary one. If the war lasts for long, that gas can easily become uneconomical.