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> Musk seems to claim every year that Level 4 autonomous driving is within 6-18 months, going back to almost 10 years ago. Yeah, I remember https://twitter.co

by chx 4y ago

> Musk seems to claim every year that Level 4 autonomous driving is within 6-18 months, going back to almost 10 years ago. Yeah, I remember https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 > In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY Jan 10, 2016 They were full of this in 2016 https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware#:~:text=We%20are%20excited%20to%20announce,that%20of%20a%20human%20driver https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now.... > We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver. October 19, 2016 Mid 2019 he envisioned a million robotaxis by the end of 2020 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1148070210412265473 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1148070210412265473

FartyMcFarter 4y ago
There's also this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7oZ-AQszEI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7oZ-AQszEI
- judge2020 4y ago
  I'll just repost my entire comment: Those did happen up until 2018 2014 - 90% capable of autopilot, for sure highway travel 2015 - autonomous driving for highways and relatively simple roads 2016 - S/X can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person - generally true, it still messes up for human-correctable situations but in general helps more than it hurts in terms of "crashes where autopilot was in control during impact or within 5 seconds of impact"[0] 2018 - incorrectly predicted - self driving will be 100-200% safer than a person by next year (this talking about their full self driving thing that will do turns and stop signs and whatnot) the 2016 tweet about NY->SF was also incorrect by the time his prediction needed to be fulfilled, 2018. 0: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
  - FartyMcFarter 4y ago
    > 2015 - autonomous driving for highways and relatively simple roads I don't think they achieved "autonomous" driving in any way, since they require the human driver to be paying attention. > 2016 - S/X can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person - generally true Really? I think this is an extraordinary claim given some of the crashes and near-crashes that have happened (and again, the "autonomous" word).
    - pmoriarty 4y ago
      "I think this is an extraordinary claim given some of the crashes and near-crashes that have happened" Humans crash all the time. It would be interesting to see a comparison of how often humans crash vs how often Teslas crash while the car is driving "autonomously". I would not be at all surprised if humans fare worse, as there are plenty of horrible drivers, angry/distracted/inexperienced drivers, drunk drivers, sleepy drivers, etc...
      - FartyMcFarter 4y ago
        > It would be interesting to see a comparison of how often humans crash vs how often Teslas crash while the car is driving "autonomously". Again, Tesla cars cannot drive autonomously by their own admission (they always require human attention), so this comparison isn't possible. Even if that weren't the case, there's also the issue that people only enable Autopilot in cherry-picked situations, which don't statistically represent general driving situations.
        pmoriarty 4y ago
        "Tesla cars cannot drive autonomously by their own admission (they always require human attention)" Tesla instructs humans to be attentive while this feature is engaged, but obviously the car will keep driving even if the human's attention is elsewhere. So Teslas do drive autonomously.. just not always as safely as (some) humans do under certain conditions. Same with ordinary cruise control, which will keep the car going even when the human driver's attention is elsewhere, their foot is off the gas pedal and their hands are off the steering wheel.

by chx 4y ago

FartyMcFarter 4y ago

There's also this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7oZ-AQszEI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7oZ-AQszEI

judge2020 4y ago
I'll just repost my entire comment: Those did happen up until 2018 2014 - 90% capable of autopilot, for sure highway travel 2015 - autonomous driving for highways and relatively simple roads 2016 - S/X can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person - generally true, it still messes up for human-correctable situations but in general helps more than it hurts in terms of "crashes where autopilot was in control during impact or within 5 seconds of impact"[0] 2018 - incorrectly predicted - self driving will be 100-200% safer than a person by next year (this talking about their full self driving thing that will do turns and stop signs and whatnot) the 2016 tweet about NY->SF was also incorrect by the time his prediction needed to be fulfilled, 2018. 0: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
- FartyMcFarter 4y ago
  > 2015 - autonomous driving for highways and relatively simple roads I don't think they achieved "autonomous" driving in any way, since they require the human driver to be paying attention. > 2016 - S/X can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person - generally true Really? I think this is an extraordinary claim given some of the crashes and near-crashes that have happened (and again, the "autonomous" word).
  - pmoriarty 4y ago
    "I think this is an extraordinary claim given some of the crashes and near-crashes that have happened" Humans crash all the time. It would be interesting to see a comparison of how often humans crash vs how often Teslas crash while the car is driving "autonomously". I would not be at all surprised if humans fare worse, as there are plenty of horrible drivers, angry/distracted/inexperienced drivers, drunk drivers, sleepy drivers, etc...
    - FartyMcFarter 4y ago
      > It would be interesting to see a comparison of how often humans crash vs how often Teslas crash while the car is driving "autonomously". Again, Tesla cars cannot drive autonomously by their own admission (they always require human attention), so this comparison isn't possible. Even if that weren't the case, there's also the issue that people only enable Autopilot in cherry-picked situations, which don't statistically represent general driving situations.
      - pmoriarty 4y ago
        "Tesla cars cannot drive autonomously by their own admission (they always require human attention)" Tesla instructs humans to be attentive while this feature is engaged, but obviously the car will keep driving even if the human's attention is elsewhere. So Teslas do drive autonomously.. just not always as safely as (some) humans do under certain conditions. Same with ordinary cruise control, which will keep the car going even when the human driver's attention is elsewhere, their foot is off the gas pedal and their hands are off the steering wheel.