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The statement that Tesla is "doing the right thing" has a lot of optimistic assumptions behind it. To start with, Tesla assumes they will be able to accomplish

The statement that Tesla is "doing the right thing" has a lot of optimistic assumptions behind it. To start with, Tesla assumes they will be able to accomplish self driving with the hardware they have. They also assume they need the system to drive on public roads (as opposed to simulations and private roads) to achieve this. They say that data collected from driving on public roads will get them there, even though this is a for-now-unsolved research problem in AI. Furthermore, Musk seems to claim every year that Level 4 autonomous driving is within 6-18 months, going back to almost 10 years ago. For now I feel there are too many people letting Tesla stick with their optimistic predictions and statements that they're "doing the right thing". Maybe the New York Times documentary that is about to come out will change this.

phkahler 4y ago
>> To start with, Tesla assumes they will be able to accomplish self driving with the hardware they have. This is an absolute joke. There are videos of the autonomous "come pick me up" feature - whatever it's called - absolutely failing. One of them even runs into an airplane and pushes it around. Sometimes I think they're just using GPS with maps and PID loops and not actual AI of any sort. Nothing short of full general AI is going to be able to drive completely autonomously.
- jacquesm 4y ago
  https://eu.usatoday.com/videos/news/have-you-seen/2022/04/25/tesla-collides-private-jet-while-owner-using-smart-summon-mode/7439216001/ https://eu.usatoday.com/videos/news/have-you-seen/2022/04/25...
- sva_ 4y ago
  It has been claimed that the summon feature works on some completely different old tech stack than autopilot.
chx 4y ago
> Musk seems to claim every year that Level 4 autonomous driving is within 6-18 months, going back to almost 10 years ago. Yeah, I remember https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 > In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY Jan 10, 2016 They were full of this in 2016 https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware#:~:text=We%20are%20excited%20to%20announce,that%20of%20a%20human%20driver https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now.... > We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver. October 19, 2016 Mid 2019 he envisioned a million robotaxis by the end of 2020 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1148070210412265473 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1148070210412265473
- FartyMcFarter 4y ago
  There's also this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7oZ-AQszEI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7oZ-AQszEI
  - judge2020 4y ago
    I'll just repost my entire comment: Those did happen up until 2018 2014 - 90% capable of autopilot, for sure highway travel 2015 - autonomous driving for highways and relatively simple roads 2016 - S/X can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person - generally true, it still messes up for human-correctable situations but in general helps more than it hurts in terms of "crashes where autopilot was in control during impact or within 5 seconds of impact"[0] 2018 - incorrectly predicted - self driving will be 100-200% safer than a person by next year (this talking about their full self driving thing that will do turns and stop signs and whatnot) the 2016 tweet about NY->SF was also incorrect by the time his prediction needed to be fulfilled, 2018. 0: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
    - FartyMcFarter 4y ago
      > 2015 - autonomous driving for highways and relatively simple roads I don't think they achieved "autonomous" driving in any way, since they require the human driver to be paying attention. > 2016 - S/X can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person - generally true Really? I think this is an extraordinary claim given some of the crashes and near-crashes that have happened (and again, the "autonomous" word).
      - pmoriarty 4y ago
        "I think this is an extraordinary claim given some of the crashes and near-crashes that have happened" Humans crash all the time. It would be interesting to see a comparison of how often humans crash vs how often Teslas crash while the car is driving "autonomously". I would not be at all surprised if humans fare worse, as there are plenty of horrible drivers, angry/distracted/inexperienced drivers, drunk drivers, sleepy drivers, etc...
somethoughts 4y ago
In the context of this case - its also important to put it in perspective of what was being said about Autopilot in 2018-19 that this driver might have been reading about it as a feature in the marketing copy. Sure in 2022 - we (including Tesla engineers) are all comfortably able to say that Autopilot is really just fancy cruise-control and the driver really needed to have been using FSD (cuz that's full self driving). But at the time - if my memory serves correct Autopilot was being marketed as the feature state of FSD is today.

phkahler 4y ago

>> To start with, Tesla assumes they will be able to accomplish self driving with the hardware they have. This is an absolute joke. There are videos of the autonomous "come pick me up" feature - whatever it's called - absolutely failing. One of them even runs into an airplane and pushes it around. Sometimes I think they're just using GPS with maps and PID loops and not actual AI of any sort. Nothing short of full general AI is going to be able to drive completely autonomously.

jacquesm 4y ago
https://eu.usatoday.com/videos/news/have-you-seen/2022/04/25/tesla-collides-private-jet-while-owner-using-smart-summon-mode/7439216001/ https://eu.usatoday.com/videos/news/have-you-seen/2022/04/25...
sva_ 4y ago
It has been claimed that the summon feature works on some completely different old tech stack than autopilot.

chx 4y ago

> Musk seems to claim every year that Level 4 autonomous driving is within 6-18 months, going back to almost 10 years ago. Yeah, I remember https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 > In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY Jan 10, 2016 They were full of this in 2016 https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware#:~:text=We%20are%20excited%20to%20announce,that%20of%20a%20human%20driver https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now.... > We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver. October 19, 2016 Mid 2019 he envisioned a million robotaxis by the end of 2020 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1148070210412265473 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1148070210412265473

FartyMcFarter 4y ago
There's also this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7oZ-AQszEI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7oZ-AQszEI
- judge2020 4y ago
  I'll just repost my entire comment: Those did happen up until 2018 2014 - 90% capable of autopilot, for sure highway travel 2015 - autonomous driving for highways and relatively simple roads 2016 - S/X can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person - generally true, it still messes up for human-correctable situations but in general helps more than it hurts in terms of "crashes where autopilot was in control during impact or within 5 seconds of impact"[0] 2018 - incorrectly predicted - self driving will be 100-200% safer than a person by next year (this talking about their full self driving thing that will do turns and stop signs and whatnot) the 2016 tweet about NY->SF was also incorrect by the time his prediction needed to be fulfilled, 2018. 0: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
  - FartyMcFarter 4y ago
    > 2015 - autonomous driving for highways and relatively simple roads I don't think they achieved "autonomous" driving in any way, since they require the human driver to be paying attention. > 2016 - S/X can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person - generally true Really? I think this is an extraordinary claim given some of the crashes and near-crashes that have happened (and again, the "autonomous" word).
    - pmoriarty 4y ago
      "I think this is an extraordinary claim given some of the crashes and near-crashes that have happened" Humans crash all the time. It would be interesting to see a comparison of how often humans crash vs how often Teslas crash while the car is driving "autonomously". I would not be at all surprised if humans fare worse, as there are plenty of horrible drivers, angry/distracted/inexperienced drivers, drunk drivers, sleepy drivers, etc...

somethoughts 4y ago

In the context of this case - its also important to put it in perspective of what was being said about Autopilot in 2018-19 that this driver might have been reading about it as a feature in the marketing copy. Sure in 2022 - we (including Tesla engineers) are all comfortably able to say that Autopilot is really just fancy cruise-control and the driver really needed to have been using FSD (cuz that's full self driving). But at the time - if my memory serves correct Autopilot was being marketed as the feature state of FSD is today.