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If there would be a huge peak, like $200k, I would sell, but generally I don’t believe I can compete with the hedge funds trading Bitcoin, so it’s the second. T

If there would be a huge peak, like $200k, I would sell, but generally I don’t believe I can compete with the hedge funds trading Bitcoin, so it’s the second. The only exception was the Bitcoin Cash hard fork, that I strongly opposed as it was being pushed by companies so aggressively even though there was no rough consensus reached, while segregated witness fork contained several critical bug fixes for Bitcoin. I sold all my Bitcoin Cash instantly for about 0.13 BCH/BTC exchange rate.

arethuza 4y ago
Out of interest, do you set explicit targets like "if it gets to X I will sell"? Just wondering as I'd have thought a "peak" is only evident in retrospect?
- chii 4y ago
  The way i've been looking at it is thru the lens of allocation ratios. You never have one asset with a high allocation (compared to another). You also have to decide ahead of time (when you start investing) what an appropriate allocation ratio is between the different assets (e.g., you might have 10% bonds, 80% stocks and 10% crypto). Then, one or twice a year, you an reallocate assets as they drift away from the ratio. Doing it too often is detrimental, so my guess is once a year is "enough", and may be keep an eye on any fluctuations and if it grows bigger than some threshold, you do a second rebalance. Let's say in 2021, crypto had a huge bull run, and went from just being 10% of your allocation to something close to 20%. It makes a lot of sense then, to sell the 10%, and rebalance back into the other assets you hold.
- xiphias2 4y ago
  I’m extremely bad at trading, but it didn’t stop me from achieving amazing returns. Just an example last year I had a target of $150k when it was at $50k, and also (like most people) I got a BTC based loan (it made sense for tax purposes as well). The problem was that everybody was doing it, and professional traders probably used those loans to short the market and trigger margin calls. I had multiple margin calls as well, but I was able to add extra collateral. At the same time I spoke with a person who lost all his money because he bought BTC/ETH from his loan. At the end the only experience I got is that I’m still a bad trader, and I won’t do it :)
  - eternalban 4y ago
    r/trader/gambler
    - lupire 4y ago
      Thars like saying r/poker player/gambler Financial instrument trading is always gambling. Imvesting is what it's not.
  - rvz 4y ago
    That is only if you bought Bitcoin when it was <$10K and as low as $5K or 6K in March 2020 which I hope you got in at the time and not at $20K, $30K or $40K. > Just an example last year I had a target of $150k when it was at $50k, and also (like most people) I got a BTC based loan (it made sense for tax purposes as well). That doesn't sound like a good idea in the middle of a bull run and everyone being in profit on Bitcoin when it was at $50K last year or even $69K. I have a different strategy - taking profits and taking advantage of the hype. It's better to get in when the market crashes so that you can buy it significantly lower, (Like say <$10K) and sell some of it during the height of the euphoria, than it is to enter when everything is going up and end up bag-holding and waiting months, or years in an unrealised loss for it to go back up again. Hence being against anyone jumping in at >$60K last year [0] and warning another person about DOGE going all the way up and bag-holding it at $0.6; thinking that it will go to $1 by August. [0] Anyways, Good luck with your strategy. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27206314 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27206314 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27046019 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27046019
    - lupire 4y ago
      You can't buy the dip during a peak. PP got a loan at 50 which is a bearish trade, halfway to shorting.
      - rvz 4y ago
        > You can't buy the dip during a peak. The people who bought in at around >$40K and higher just did that and are now bag-holding in drawdown. > PP got a loan at 50 which is a bearish trade, halfway to shorting. Well no wonder they received multiple margin calls when the smart traders were taking profits or shorting from >$60K with him ending up on the wrong side of the trade or entering at higher prices and holding into unrealised losses.
- fleddr 4y ago
  The intelligent strategy is to do progressive selling on the way up rather than try and predict the absolute top, which nobody realistically can do. Progressive selling on the way up is emotionally very hard to do, as it feels like you're losing money whilst actually being in profit. It's tempting to fully ride the top. Don't. Next, when the inevitable crash comes, you're uniquely positioned to buy in heavily as you have the dry powder to do so. This too is emotionally hard as everybody is fearful, "blood in the streets". Here too you can progressively buy in rather than try and predict the bottom. This strategy only works for things that bounce back, which is not true for almost every altcoin or shitcoin. You can also take permanent profits. Once I made my first significant profit, I took out my initial investment so that effectively I'm in crypto only with profits. I could lose it all and whilst that wouldn't make me happy, it wouldn't truly affect me either.

arethuza 4y ago

Out of interest, do you set explicit targets like "if it gets to X I will sell"? Just wondering as I'd have thought a "peak" is only evident in retrospect?

chii 4y ago
The way i've been looking at it is thru the lens of allocation ratios. You never have one asset with a high allocation (compared to another). You also have to decide ahead of time (when you start investing) what an appropriate allocation ratio is between the different assets (e.g., you might have 10% bonds, 80% stocks and 10% crypto). Then, one or twice a year, you an reallocate assets as they drift away from the ratio. Doing it too often is detrimental, so my guess is once a year is "enough", and may be keep an eye on any fluctuations and if it grows bigger than some threshold, you do a second rebalance. Let's say in 2021, crypto had a huge bull run, and went from just being 10% of your allocation to something close to 20%. It makes a lot of sense then, to sell the 10%, and rebalance back into the other assets you hold.
xiphias2 4y ago
I’m extremely bad at trading, but it didn’t stop me from achieving amazing returns. Just an example last year I had a target of $150k when it was at $50k, and also (like most people) I got a BTC based loan (it made sense for tax purposes as well). The problem was that everybody was doing it, and professional traders probably used those loans to short the market and trigger margin calls. I had multiple margin calls as well, but I was able to add extra collateral. At the same time I spoke with a person who lost all his money because he bought BTC/ETH from his loan. At the end the only experience I got is that I’m still a bad trader, and I won’t do it :)
- eternalban 4y ago
  r/trader/gambler
  - lupire 4y ago
    Thars like saying r/poker player/gambler Financial instrument trading is always gambling. Imvesting is what it's not.
- rvz 4y ago
  That is only if you bought Bitcoin when it was <$10K and as low as $5K or 6K in March 2020 which I hope you got in at the time and not at $20K, $30K or $40K. > Just an example last year I had a target of $150k when it was at $50k, and also (like most people) I got a BTC based loan (it made sense for tax purposes as well). That doesn't sound like a good idea in the middle of a bull run and everyone being in profit on Bitcoin when it was at $50K last year or even $69K. I have a different strategy - taking profits and taking advantage of the hype. It's better to get in when the market crashes so that you can buy it significantly lower, (Like say <$10K) and sell some of it during the height of the euphoria, than it is to enter when everything is going up and end up bag-holding and waiting months, or years in an unrealised loss for it to go back up again. Hence being against anyone jumping in at >$60K last year [0] and warning another person about DOGE going all the way up and bag-holding it at $0.6; thinking that it will go to $1 by August. [0] Anyways, Good luck with your strategy. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27206314 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27206314 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27046019 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27046019
  - lupire 4y ago
    You can't buy the dip during a peak. PP got a loan at 50 which is a bearish trade, halfway to shorting.
    - rvz 4y ago
      > You can't buy the dip during a peak. The people who bought in at around >$40K and higher just did that and are now bag-holding in drawdown. > PP got a loan at 50 which is a bearish trade, halfway to shorting. Well no wonder they received multiple margin calls when the smart traders were taking profits or shorting from >$60K with him ending up on the wrong side of the trade or entering at higher prices and holding into unrealised losses.
fleddr 4y ago
The intelligent strategy is to do progressive selling on the way up rather than try and predict the absolute top, which nobody realistically can do. Progressive selling on the way up is emotionally very hard to do, as it feels like you're losing money whilst actually being in profit. It's tempting to fully ride the top. Don't. Next, when the inevitable crash comes, you're uniquely positioned to buy in heavily as you have the dry powder to do so. This too is emotionally hard as everybody is fearful, "blood in the streets". Here too you can progressively buy in rather than try and predict the bottom. This strategy only works for things that bounce back, which is not true for almost every altcoin or shitcoin. You can also take permanent profits. Once I made my first significant profit, I took out my initial investment so that effectively I'm in crypto only with profits. I could lose it all and whilst that wouldn't make me happy, it wouldn't truly affect me either.