4 ms·

Chill out, talk to a friend not in tech, their business is probably doing great right now. Unemployment is unprecedently low. Things are actually pretty good ri

Chill out, talk to a friend not in tech, their business is probably doing great right now. Unemployment is unprecedently low. Things are actually pretty good right now

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
gnulinux 4y ago
Except the stock market, which is in >1 year lowest.
- sophacles 4y ago
  Its still higher than anything pre-covid though. If you look at the charts for S&P, dow, russel, nasdaq since 2008, there's a clear "bubble" around covid times, and the current values look approximately where I would expect them if there wasn't the covid bump.
thepasswordis 4y ago
Unemployment is low because companies have had access to really cheap money, and have been hiring people in an attempt to grow their business. This is the point of low interest rates, but it has caused inflation, and it has caused a potential "bomb" now that rates are hiking. Those employees were hired in the hopes of fulfilling tasks which were also being fueled by cheap money. When the money dries up (which it has), it's only a matter of time before those jobs get cut.
- postalrat 4y ago
  I think unemployment, at least for developers and real engineers, is low because a lot of people basically retired or semi-retired during or after the pandemic.
boringg 4y ago
Depends on which lens you look at. Is the world about to blow up? Most likely not. (Russia. unseen asteroid). Are things going to be more challenging over the next 3-5 years compared to the last 3-5 years (less pandemic) yes. To your point, hopefully if we are out of the acute phase of the pandemic then in comparison things might be better than that last two years though we aren't going back to the 2010s era. If you work at a large corporation - probably stay on cruise control. As a founder / investor I would certainly be stretching out time lines and lowering expectations on favorable exits and if you are at a company without revenue I would be concerned. Macro environments have deteriorated rapidly - outside the fed stepping in (which would be even more concerning) unlikely to have great exits for awhile. Investors have also lost a lot of money recently so aren't likely to step in. Flight to quality ensues.. But yes agree, everyone does need to chill out in these uncertain times. The sun will rise tomorrow just like it did today.
- boznz 4y ago
  "unseen asteroid" - Wouldn't that just be the shit icing on the shit cake, though would be boom time in the space sector.
- rmbyrro 4y ago
  > Are things going to be more challenging over the next 3-5 years ... yes I'm sorry, but where you not watching the news in the past 2 years?
  - bigDinosaur 4y ago
    It might not be the drunken night out that puts you in hospital, but the long term damage. We're going to be dealing with the consequences of the pandemic alone for the next decade. It's possible some things might turn out more positively than expected, but it seems sage to predict that it'll be bumpy even if so.
    - boringg 4y ago
      That and right before the pandemic we had a been in a very long bull market (frothy on cheap money) that bad companies were getting funded on huge rounds/due diligence was an afterthought. I wouldn't be surprised if we look back on crypto and are like, oh yeah the reason crypto took off and became way too snake oily was because there was too much money looking for returns over the last decade.
vosper 4y ago
True, but productivity in the US had the biggest decline since 1947, and IIRC the percentage of people of working age who are currently in work is relatively low (not the same as the US unemployment stat) Foreign Policy's "Ones and Tooze" podcast had a recent episode "Why Low Unemployment Isn't Better News" recently, which was interesting on the topic and has much more detail than I can recall. https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/ones-and-tooze/us-low-unemployment-rate/ https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/ones-and-tooze/us-low-une...
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Labour economists traditionally used a "three stock" model of working age adults: there are the employed, the unemployed, and those not in the labour force (NILF). Lately (in the last 30 years or so) NILF has been split up into "discouraged workers", people not officially unemployed but who would like work if they could find suitable work, and those doing something else: raising kids, studying, etc. There are a lot more "discouraged workers" these days. As well as places with people but no jobs (with the people unable to move elsewhere) and people on disability, there are now many people reluctant to expose themselves to disease or to insufferable behaviour by customers or bosses, and some who have been deprogrammed from the daily grind. (Also, immigration has been declining from 3.7 per 1000 residents in 2004 to 2.8 today, but that is negligible.)
bluedino 4y ago
I don't get how unemployment is low. Every store or restaurant I go to is short on people.
- astrange 4y ago
  That’s how you know it’s low, they don’t have to work retail.
  - the_only_law 4y ago
    Heh, seeing retail salaries advertised around, I wouldn’t be worried. I’d be worried if I’m someone who employs skilled/semi-skilled laborers. When I was visiting family over the holidays, we passed at McDonald’s offering $25/h. Later on TV, some local factory was trying to hire moderately specialized positions for over $6/h less.
- dalyons 4y ago
  Uh do you know what unemployment means?

Chill out, talk to a friend not in tech, their business is probably doing great right now. Unemployment is unprecedently low. Things are actually pretty good right now

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

gnulinux 4y ago

Except the stock market, which is in >1 year lowest.

sophacles 4y ago
Its still higher than anything pre-covid though. If you look at the charts for S&P, dow, russel, nasdaq since 2008, there's a clear "bubble" around covid times, and the current values look approximately where I would expect them if there wasn't the covid bump.

thepasswordis 4y ago

Unemployment is low because companies have had access to really cheap money, and have been hiring people in an attempt to grow their business. This is the point of low interest rates, but it has caused inflation, and it has caused a potential "bomb" now that rates are hiking. Those employees were hired in the hopes of fulfilling tasks which were also being fueled by cheap money. When the money dries up (which it has), it's only a matter of time before those jobs get cut.

postalrat 4y ago
I think unemployment, at least for developers and real engineers, is low because a lot of people basically retired or semi-retired during or after the pandemic.

boringg 4y ago

Depends on which lens you look at. Is the world about to blow up? Most likely not. (Russia. unseen asteroid). Are things going to be more challenging over the next 3-5 years compared to the last 3-5 years (less pandemic) yes. To your point, hopefully if we are out of the acute phase of the pandemic then in comparison things might be better than that last two years though we aren't going back to the 2010s era. If you work at a large corporation - probably stay on cruise control. As a founder / investor I would certainly be stretching out time lines and lowering expectations on favorable exits and if you are at a company without revenue I would be concerned. Macro environments have deteriorated rapidly - outside the fed stepping in (which would be even more concerning) unlikely to have great exits for awhile. Investors have also lost a lot of money recently so aren't likely to step in. Flight to quality ensues.. But yes agree, everyone does need to chill out in these uncertain times. The sun will rise tomorrow just like it did today.

boznz 4y ago
"unseen asteroid" - Wouldn't that just be the shit icing on the shit cake, though would be boom time in the space sector.
rmbyrro 4y ago
> Are things going to be more challenging over the next 3-5 years ... yes I'm sorry, but where you not watching the news in the past 2 years?
- bigDinosaur 4y ago
  It might not be the drunken night out that puts you in hospital, but the long term damage. We're going to be dealing with the consequences of the pandemic alone for the next decade. It's possible some things might turn out more positively than expected, but it seems sage to predict that it'll be bumpy even if so.
  - boringg 4y ago
    That and right before the pandemic we had a been in a very long bull market (frothy on cheap money) that bad companies were getting funded on huge rounds/due diligence was an afterthought. I wouldn't be surprised if we look back on crypto and are like, oh yeah the reason crypto took off and became way too snake oily was because there was too much money looking for returns over the last decade.

vosper 4y ago

True, but productivity in the US had the biggest decline since 1947, and IIRC the percentage of people of working age who are currently in work is relatively low (not the same as the US unemployment stat) Foreign Policy's "Ones and Tooze" podcast had a recent episode "Why Low Unemployment Isn't Better News" recently, which was interesting on the topic and has much more detail than I can recall. https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/ones-and-tooze/us-low-unemployment-rate/ https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/ones-and-tooze/us-low-une...

tuatoru 4y ago
Labour economists traditionally used a "three stock" model of working age adults: there are the employed, the unemployed, and those not in the labour force (NILF). Lately (in the last 30 years or so) NILF has been split up into "discouraged workers", people not officially unemployed but who would like work if they could find suitable work, and those doing something else: raising kids, studying, etc. There are a lot more "discouraged workers" these days. As well as places with people but no jobs (with the people unable to move elsewhere) and people on disability, there are now many people reluctant to expose themselves to disease or to insufferable behaviour by customers or bosses, and some who have been deprogrammed from the daily grind. (Also, immigration has been declining from 3.7 per 1000 residents in 2004 to 2.8 today, but that is negligible.)

bluedino 4y ago

I don't get how unemployment is low. Every store or restaurant I go to is short on people.

astrange 4y ago
That’s how you know it’s low, they don’t have to work retail.
- the_only_law 4y ago
  Heh, seeing retail salaries advertised around, I wouldn’t be worried. I’d be worried if I’m someone who employs skilled/semi-skilled laborers. When I was visiting family over the holidays, we passed at McDonald’s offering $25/h. Later on TV, some local factory was trying to hire moderately specialized positions for over $6/h less.
dalyons 4y ago
Uh do you know what unemployment means?