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Re 4., that's doable if the West renounces some of its existing economic sanctions against Russia, the Russians themselves have said as much recently. It proba
by paganel 4y ago
Re 4., that's doable if the West renounces some of its existing economic sanctions against Russia, the Russians themselves have said as much recently.
It probably won't happen because the West doesn't like to see itself as being involved in the war (in a way similar to what Russia thinks about itself) and will try to resort to "Russia should unlock the blockade purely on humanitarian grounds!", which, of course, is the type of declaration which has no effect during a direct economic war (like the one the West and Russia are now waging against each other, on top of the military proxy war).
- UnFleshedOne 4y agoAnother option for #4 is supplying enough long range anti-ship rockets to sink whole russian fleet in black sea. They can't bring in more ships, because turkey is blocking the entrance.
- paganel 4y agoAnd then you have Russian aviation attacking and sinking Ukrainian merchant ships, plus a couple of submarines.
- nradov 4y agoUkraine doesn't have much of a merchant fleet. Most of their exports travel on foreign bottoms. And foreign ship owners are unwilling to risk entering an active conflict zone, especially because they can't obtain affordable insurance.
- ImPostingOnHN 4y agofor a short while, while said aviation exists we can play this game all day long, but the past 2 months have clearly shown that russian conventional forces are not even close to a match for NATO combined forces* * as long as the goal isn't to slaughter as many civilians as possible, which for russia is a strong assumption
- postalrat 4y agoTriggering world war 3 would also help reduce the population which could reduce co2 emissions and food requirements. Killing a few birds with one stone.
- chrsig 4y agoI really wish the last few years didn't make me desensitized to the notion.
- spywaregorilla 4y agoThis doesn't really make any sense though. It changes nothing about the geopolitical reality of what's going on. If the US sends a merchant ship and a cruiser, what is russia going to do exactly? Try to bomb the ships? They will lose, and get shot down. Why would it suddenly be WWIII? Is russia really going to say "Well, they shot down our plane so its global thermonuclear war time".
- giantg2 4y ago"Is russia really going to say "Well, they shot down our plane so its global thermonuclear war time"." That is what they have been threatening...
- spywaregorilla 4y agoThey threaten everyone and change their mind all the time. It's mostly irrelevant to what they actually do.
- giantg2 4y agoThe question was would they really "say" it.
- spywaregorilla 4y agoIt felt pretty clear to me the intention was saying it "to themselves" and following up with actual action. Nobody cares if they say things aloud.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- jakewins 4y agoHypothetically, if the west actually wanted to give up sanctions in return for clearing the blockade.. why, in what universe, could they possibly expect Russia to stand by its word? Russia said for six months they were simply conducting exercises and had no intention of invading whatsoever. Why should anyone believe they would clear the blockade if sanctions lift?
- paganel 4y agoIf they don't stand by their word then they can re-impose the sanctions, it's as simple as that. > Why should anyone believe they would clear the blockade if sanctions lift Because at some point the West will have to sit at the negotiating table with Russia.
- lovich 4y ago> Because at some point the West will have to sit at the negotiating table with Russia. Do they? What does Russia have that will force them to the negotiating table? The damage to this years harvest is already done and the supply chains will likely have figured themselves out by next year
- einpoklum 4y agoIf the US accrues enough "Oh, we don't talk to _those people_, we only sanction them" world states, they will encompass enough of the world's population to make it unreasonable for third parties to obey US sanctions, which they currently tend to (because the US sanctions transitively); and enough of the world's population to do things like replace SWIFT and/or drop the USD as their main reserve currency. (Also, there's the question of the fate of the Ukranians, but I guess you're right in that the US doesn't care enough about that to negotiate with Russia.)
- lovich 4y agoI mean yea, but arguing that the US has hit that point is different than arguing that Russia in particular will have to be negotiated with. The US could always lower sanctions on other nations than Russian
- namdnay 4y agoWhat is "the west" exactly? Japan? New Zealand? Finland? Tunisia? A better term would be liberal democracies, but that wouldn't have quite the same "both sides are the same" ring to it, would it? Russia isn't waging an economic war against anyone. A dictator tried to invade his democratic neighbour, he failed, and now the other democraties are cutting him out of their club
- tut-urut-utut 4y agoI agree Putin is some kind of dictator, but are you really calling Ukraine democracy? Then you can also call North Korea democracy.
- jandrese 4y agoThere is some speculation that the liberal democratic rumblings from Zelenski are what forced Putin to act. I have no illusions that a country with deeply rooted corruption issues like Ukraine can turn on a dime, but he was at least voicing support for the idea. If he managed to root out some of the corruption then Putin would lose the ability to puppet the state entirely, and that's a slippery slope to becoming part of Europe and being lost to Russia forever.
- anonAndOn 4y ago>are you really calling Ukraine democracy Isn't it strange how Russian money kept trying to prevent it from becoming so and yet, it kept becoming one?
- boardwaalk 4y agoUhm, yes? They elected a comedian with no political experience or ties for f's sake. But I suppose that was some sort of rigged election or he's just a figurehead or something?
- t-3 4y agoUh, he's banned all opposition parties. Where's the democracy? He was a direct employee of a Ukrainian billionaire oligarch, plenty of ties, just check the Pandora Papers...
- mmarq 4y agoThe Russian government has demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt that it is not a good faith interlocutor. Nobody should take anything they say seriously.
- HappyDreamer 4y ago> Nobody should take anything they say seriously It's almost amazing that the newspapers reprint what Putin says, as if it was something to take seriously. Without explaining to the readers that Putin is trying to manipulate them. -- They're sometimes letting themselves be a megaphone he can use, I think.
- dredmorbius 4y agoIt took years for the media to reach that point with a recent would-be tyrant. Though Putin's been headed that way for far longer.
- HappyDreamer 4y agoWould-be tyrant -- I'm guessing you have in mind the president in the US who didn't want to leave, after having lost the elections? (Could have made him a dictator at least, eventually, if he had succeeded. A tyrant? Hmm it means "a cruel and oppressive ruler" -- so yes, then, I'd guess it would have turned out that way. Cliffhanger ... soon 2024.) Or am I'm bad at guessing :-)
- xdennis 4y ago> It probably won't happen because the West doesn't like to see itself as being involved in the war (in a way similar to what Russia thinks about itself) Ridiculous equivalency. Your boogeyman "the West" didn't attack Russia and doesn't have troops in Russia.
- bryanlarsen 4y agoRunning the blockade doesn't necessarily require Russian cooperation in advance. All that's required is a minesweeper, and some commanders and captains with giant balls. Run some ships under a NATO flag to Odessa, fill them up and run them back. Russia will bluster and threaten, but I doubt they'll actually do anything. Russia is not in a strong enough position to be able to escalate. I'm not anywhere close to sure of that, Putin is definitely not completely rational. I do think it's a risk worth taking.