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Here's a fun and somewhat believable conspiracy theory: What if there's internal data indicating that it's closer to, like, 30%? In that case, a buyout offer

Here's a fun and somewhat believable conspiracy theory: What if there's internal data indicating that it's closer to, like, 30%? In that case, a buyout offer conditional on a DAU audit is certain to expose that data, and that's checkmate for TWTR. Musk can then either buy it at a massive discount, or use the enormous amount of free press to launch a competitor with mandatory device attestation.

motohagiography 4y ago
What is the objection to this hypothesis? It's not even a conspiracy theory, it's that the board has misrepresented the DAU, and in turn, the value of the company. To adapt an adage - Musk has already established what the company is, now he's just negotiating the price.
minsc_and_boo 4y ago
It doesn't matter what twitter has internally, they have no fiscal duty to report what percentage of users are or are not fully human driven. It's the buyer's responsibility to undergo due diligence before making serious, legally-binding offers. Musk is very clearly scraping for excuses now that he has buyer's remorse.
outworlder 4y ago
> or use the enormous amount of free press to launch a competitor with mandatory device attestation. That's what I think he's actually trying to do, as part of his "master plan part III". Twitter is only valuable because of users - but they are not worth this incredible premium. He's seen how attempts at launching 'free speech' platforms have gone. He can easily build a competitor for a fraction of the deal's price. He can easily outspend any company. But that doesn't guarantee users - eyeball time is a limited resource. However, if he torpedoes twitter, he can get a bunch of users from the wreckage. And, you know, profit from some nice pump and dump in the meantime.
threeseed 4y ago
> What if there's internal data indicating that it's closer to, like, 30%? Pretty sure users would notice if 1/3 of all tweets are computer-generated.
- scotuswroteus 4y ago
  They do notice. And people use the block button and call everyone NPCs

motohagiography 4y ago

What is the objection to this hypothesis? It's not even a conspiracy theory, it's that the board has misrepresented the DAU, and in turn, the value of the company. To adapt an adage - Musk has already established what the company is, now he's just negotiating the price.

minsc_and_boo 4y ago

It doesn't matter what twitter has internally, they have no fiscal duty to report what percentage of users are or are not fully human driven. It's the buyer's responsibility to undergo due diligence before making serious, legally-binding offers. Musk is very clearly scraping for excuses now that he has buyer's remorse.

outworlder 4y ago

> or use the enormous amount of free press to launch a competitor with mandatory device attestation. That's what I think he's actually trying to do, as part of his "master plan part III". Twitter is only valuable because of users - but they are not worth this incredible premium. He's seen how attempts at launching 'free speech' platforms have gone. He can easily build a competitor for a fraction of the deal's price. He can easily outspend any company. But that doesn't guarantee users - eyeball time is a limited resource. However, if he torpedoes twitter, he can get a bunch of users from the wreckage. And, you know, profit from some nice pump and dump in the meantime.

threeseed 4y ago

> What if there's internal data indicating that it's closer to, like, 30%? Pretty sure users would notice if 1/3 of all tweets are computer-generated.

scotuswroteus 4y ago
They do notice. And people use the block button and call everyone NPCs