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I think 2008 is the wrong analogy. The Dotcom bubble is probably a more instructive comparison. The Dotcom bubble was inflated by a lot of people investing in
by qqqwerty 4y ago
I think 2008 is the wrong analogy. The Dotcom bubble is probably a more instructive comparison.
The Dotcom bubble was inflated by a lot of people investing in something they didn't understand. And the crash did not threaten to destabilize the entire financial system. But it did cause a drag on the broader economy, and had fairly significant local impacts.
Of course that is just when evaluating the crypto bubble. There are multiple other ongoing problems in the economy, and I am having a harder time figuring out what the impacts will be. Stubborn inflation due to supply chain problems, coupled with rapidly rising interest rates feels like we are going to see a lot of companies get caught in very tough situations. There are a lot of companies out there that are supply constrained right now. I imagine they have been hanging on and avoiding layoffs/downsizing the last year or so in the hopes that once the supply chain issues resolve they can quickly ramp back up to 100%. But if debt/financing gets really expensive or demand starts dropping I think we are going to start seeing a lot of layoffs. I still don't think this leads to a 2008 style crash. But I am a bit uneasy about what happens when you take away the cheap debt that has been fueling the economy for the last decade.
- nradov 4y agoThe Dotcom bubble companies were mostly not outright scams. Some of them were, in retrospect, obviously stupid ideas. But they were at least trying to bring in revenue, and a few actually succeeded. By contrast, cryptocurrency has no revenue stream. It's a zero-sum game. A better analogy would be the bubble in Beanie Babies that happened around the same time as the Dotcom boom (and drove some early Ebay growth). Idiots were taking out loans to buy up thousands of those toys, thinking that demand would go up forever.
- Ekaros 4y agoEven worst crypto is negative-sum game. It has constant negative revenue stream in mining. Occasionally it is corrected, but not as much as the price increases...