3 ms·

IMHO, the future cannot be predicted. Period. I'm not talking impossible-as-in-hard. I am talking impossible-as-in-perpetual-motion. Nice well-behaved linear N

by api 15y ago

IMHO, the future cannot be predicted. Period. I'm not talking impossible-as-in-hard. I am talking impossible-as-in-perpetual-motion. Nice well-behaved linear Newtonian systems can be modeled and predicted. There are systems that are chaotic but that can be modeled in the aggregate very well too, like thermodynamic systems and certain kinds of fluid flow. Life isn't like any of that. Life is complex, chaotic, computationally irreducible, and full of feedback loops on top of feedback loops. Even worse: predictions often create economic incentives to prove them wrong. Take a position on the stock market and you have created an incentive for your prediction to not come true. People have always wanted to deny the fundamental unpredictability of history, and have always clung to woo-woo prophecy superstitions toward this end. The ancients had Tarot cards and pig entrails. We have graphs and computer models.

hugh3 15y ago
Of course, predicting the future with 100% certainty is impossible. But that doesn't mean that making predictions is a mug's game. Predicting the future, with appropriate levels of uncertainty, is a very sensible thing to do with your time. I, for instance, predict that if I wander down to Cheeseboard in twenty minutes I'll find that they're selling delicious pizza. And I predict that if I eat that pizza, then it won't poison me. These are all useful predictions, which may be wrong, but are useful nonetheless. It's only when you start sticking inappropriate error bars on your predictions that it becomes a problem. Kurzweil predicts things which are unlikely or perhaps impossible as having probabilities near 100%.
- lukifer 15y ago
  Arguably, attempting to predict the future is the very essence of intelligence. (See: Jeff Hawkins.)
  - hexagonc 15y ago
    I would say that the ability to predict the future is indeed a large part of what we call intelligence. Note that 'intelligent' is a relative term, however. You are considered 'intelligent' if you are able to predict the behavior of a system at a success-rate significantly higher than the average observer, given similar or equivalent prior knowledge about the system.

by api 15y ago

hugh3 15y ago

Of course, predicting the future with 100% certainty is impossible. But that doesn't mean that making predictions is a mug's game. Predicting the future, with appropriate levels of uncertainty, is a very sensible thing to do with your time. I, for instance, predict that if I wander down to Cheeseboard in twenty minutes I'll find that they're selling delicious pizza. And I predict that if I eat that pizza, then it won't poison me. These are all useful predictions, which may be wrong, but are useful nonetheless. It's only when you start sticking inappropriate error bars on your predictions that it becomes a problem. Kurzweil predicts things which are unlikely or perhaps impossible as having probabilities near 100%.

lukifer 15y ago
Arguably, attempting to predict the future is the very essence of intelligence. (See: Jeff Hawkins.)
- hexagonc 15y ago
  I would say that the ability to predict the future is indeed a large part of what we call intelligence. Note that 'intelligent' is a relative term, however. You are considered 'intelligent' if you are able to predict the behavior of a system at a success-rate significantly higher than the average observer, given similar or equivalent prior knowledge about the system.