6 ms·

Vetos are somewhat overrated. Agents may have the right to veto, but might not have the power to deal with the consequences. Russia has a UN veto and uses it,

Vetos are somewhat overrated. Agents may have the right to veto, but might not have the power to deal with the consequences. Russia has a UN veto and uses it, because they can weather the consequences. Could Hungary piss off all of its allies, trade partners, basically everyone but Russia? Doubtful. Hungary is playing a skillful, if somewhat devious, game of balancing between Russia and the West. But an outright FU to a (clearly) US-sponsored NATO expansion? I can't see them weathering this. Signalling a veto is often rather a negotiation step.

pastacacioepepe 4y ago
And yet Ungary alone is stopping the 6th round of Russia sanctions from the EU. They are not afraid to veto to protect their interests, like any nation should do. It's not a coincidence that von der leyen wants to change the voting system from hunanimity to majority. They don't like to lose, and the rules are fine only as long as they can do what they want. So vetoes have more power than you would let us think.
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  I think it's been convenient to blame Hungary, but the truth is, plenty of countries are unhappy about banning Russian hydrocarbons, with Germany leading the list. They can weather the consequences of their veto, because there isn't much will to make it happen anyway - i.e. there are no consequences. I can imagine Finland/Sweden being very different. Who benefits/loses from Finland/Sweden joining? These countries are very well-armed, with large, well-trained armies, so they are a welcome addition for most. Baltic states must be delighted. Germany must be realising that hugging Russia for decades hasn't paid off, but it is in a clinch; its army has had decades of peacetime budgets, while they find themselves on the gas/oil hook. Hungary's own immediate neighbours, Romania and Slovakia at least, are quite wary of Russian threat and will welcome at least a diffusion of Russian targets in the area. Would there be consequences to ruining the plans of US, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Slovakia and Romania, and many other countries? No doubt, and beyond what Hungary is prepared to pay. But then what do I know? I'm an armchair strategist.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > plenty of countries are unhappy about banning Russian hydrocarbons But only one is blocking.
    - yakak 4y ago
      It only takes one party to block and there is shame in blocking, why would another country admit that they would have blocked if not for the vote of that shameless Hungarian?
      - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
        > why would another country admit that they would have blocked if not for the vote of that shameless Hungarian? This may be true or not. Doesn’t matter. Those others waited. Hungary didn’t.
      - agapon 4y ago
        Simple: there will a lot of focus on persuading that single country to change its position. And once persuaded (or "persuaded") it will be too late (and ridiculous) for the "secret supporters" to voice their opposition.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
  - pastacacioepepe 4y ago
    - rich_sasha 4y ago
      > I'll remind you that Russia is a democracy and Putin is a democratically elected leader, as much as Biden is. And people in the USA have much less trust for the democratic process than Russians at the moment. Erm... huh? You cannot, not in a million years, compare the democratic processes of US or EU states with what's going on in Russia. I'm not even sure where to start. How about this then: Russia's premier opposition leader, Alexey Navalny, got poisoned with deadly poison known to be used only by Russian secret services, and almost died. Did Biden or Trump or any other US politician try to kill their opponent? I suspect given that comment, we won't find common ground, but for others' benefit: > It paid off incredibly well actually. Why do you think Germany is the first industrial power in Europe? Who's selling them all the cheap gas that keeps the industries going? Germany decided to wean itself off atom and onto gas/renewables. That was a political decision, which drove energy prices up. France instead doubled-down on nuclear and is doing just fine. Affordable energy is achievable without Russian gas, just not overnight. For sure the going was good for Germany for a while, but now they find they are held by the balls.
- mihaaly 4y ago
  It is one thing protecting interest and an other abusing a possibility almost all the time, blackmailing allies and distorting group efforts. Btw. the ruling party - practically means Orbán himself - is more like protecting personal interest than the contry's, likely (very likely) financial interests of self while the country's interest is completely elsewhere concerning both financial and the big picture.
jcranberry 4y ago
What would be realistic fallout from vetoing their application?
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  Well, plenty of potential things. In strictly defence terms, they buy weaponry from US and Germany. Hungarian air force operates Swedish Gripen fighters and thus most likely relies on Sweden at least for spare parts (which military jets need lots of) so here's another pressure point. They are big beneficiaries of EU funding (not a NATO thing but this is all intertwined) and already at odds with EU rules, which could push them towards not getting the funding - there are plenty of reasons to implement that already, just lacking political will right now. They can find themselves sidelined for new EU spending, political nominations, and so on. The question would of course be if EU/NATO want to do that. It's part of the usual political horse-trading game. For sure, in the extreme scenario if US/EU/main partners really wanted Finland and Sweden to join and Hungary vetoed, it could be made to pay an unaffordable price.
  - bnt 4y ago
    Sweden not selling them parts would be the end of Sweden selling planes to anyone.
    - stickfigure 4y ago
      Sweden entering NATO could be the beginning of Sweden selling planes to NATO.
      - trashtester 4y ago
        I don't think there is much demand for JAS Gripen in Nato countries at this day. 4th gen fighters do not have much lifetime left in them, and F35 is increasingly taking the role of the current-gen fighter for advanced nations. But Sweden is already member of the Cuture Combat Air System (FCAS) initiative to create a 6th gen air war system of systems, alongside nato members. And this kind of colaboration will be even more natural when/if they join Nato.
fallingknife 4y ago
What I don't understand is what Hungary gains from splitting with the rest of the EU and NATO to help Russia. Doesn't seem beneficial to them.
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  The very short answer is that Hungary benefits both from membership in the Western block and from being Putin's friend inside it. So they presumably don't want to go as far as leave, but rather use that as a credible threat for leverage.
  - teknopaul 4y ago
    If hungry tried to veto, Nato could evict them, then they would be facing Putin on their own. Nobody is Putin's friend. When you join his club he send the military in to make sure it goes his way.
    - eru 4y ago
      While I appreciate the sentiment, as long as Russia doesn't have a common border with Hungary, he won't be able to send the military. Who's gonna let him through?
      - guildan 4y ago
        La
        eru 4y ago
        ?
        teknopaul 4y ago
        He didn't have a land border with the Crimea but that didn't stop him.
- 4y ago
hemreldop 4y ago
Regic 4y ago
The hungarian leading party (fidesz) has already declared they will not veto Ukrain's adoption to the EU so I personally really doubt they would veto Finland's entry to the NATO. They are playing a double-game (sorry, this probably doesn't make sense in english, it's a hungarian expression): Orban had a famous quote he said to EU leaders "don't listen to what I say, only to what I do", which in practice means alienating the EU in rhetoric but not so much in practice. Of course this is not so simple as other EU members also care about the rhetoric too but it still summarizes Orban's geopolitics fairly well. This is not unique either, Merkel had similar "two-faced" approach to Russia and even toward Hungary, Orban is just significantly less popular in the west due to his populist anti-democratic tendencies.
- shreyshnaccount 4y ago
  To stray from the topic, the double game phrase does make sense to me, possibly because it's also a Hindi phrase
  - kn0where 4y ago
    I think the English equivalent is "playing both sides of the fence." Double game makes intuitive sense too though.
    - shreyshnaccount 4y ago
      And one of the Hindi phrases my mom uses "thali ka baingan" literally translates to "eggplant of the plate" doesn't make any sense in English but I love it xD. Hindi is a pretty beautiful language and people use so many colourful metaphors it's incredible!
  - piva00 4y ago
    Same for me as a Brazilian, jogo duplo means literally double-game and it's a pretty popular expression. Probably in Portugal and other Portuguese-speaking countries as well.
    - 4y ago

pastacacioepepe 4y ago

And yet Ungary alone is stopping the 6th round of Russia sanctions from the EU. They are not afraid to veto to protect their interests, like any nation should do. It's not a coincidence that von der leyen wants to change the voting system from hunanimity to majority. They don't like to lose, and the rules are fine only as long as they can do what they want. So vetoes have more power than you would let us think.

rich_sasha 4y ago
I think it's been convenient to blame Hungary, but the truth is, plenty of countries are unhappy about banning Russian hydrocarbons, with Germany leading the list. They can weather the consequences of their veto, because there isn't much will to make it happen anyway - i.e. there are no consequences. I can imagine Finland/Sweden being very different. Who benefits/loses from Finland/Sweden joining? These countries are very well-armed, with large, well-trained armies, so they are a welcome addition for most. Baltic states must be delighted. Germany must be realising that hugging Russia for decades hasn't paid off, but it is in a clinch; its army has had decades of peacetime budgets, while they find themselves on the gas/oil hook. Hungary's own immediate neighbours, Romania and Slovakia at least, are quite wary of Russian threat and will welcome at least a diffusion of Russian targets in the area. Would there be consequences to ruining the plans of US, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Slovakia and Romania, and many other countries? No doubt, and beyond what Hungary is prepared to pay. But then what do I know? I'm an armchair strategist.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > plenty of countries are unhappy about banning Russian hydrocarbons But only one is blocking.
  - yakak 4y ago
    It only takes one party to block and there is shame in blocking, why would another country admit that they would have blocked if not for the vote of that shameless Hungarian?
    - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
      > why would another country admit that they would have blocked if not for the vote of that shameless Hungarian? This may be true or not. Doesn’t matter. Those others waited. Hungary didn’t.
    - agapon 4y ago
      Simple: there will a lot of focus on persuading that single country to change its position. And once persuaded (or "persuaded") it will be too late (and ridiculous) for the "secret supporters" to voice their opposition.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- pastacacioepepe 4y ago
  - rich_sasha 4y ago
    > I'll remind you that Russia is a democracy and Putin is a democratically elected leader, as much as Biden is. And people in the USA have much less trust for the democratic process than Russians at the moment. Erm... huh? You cannot, not in a million years, compare the democratic processes of US or EU states with what's going on in Russia. I'm not even sure where to start. How about this then: Russia's premier opposition leader, Alexey Navalny, got poisoned with deadly poison known to be used only by Russian secret services, and almost died. Did Biden or Trump or any other US politician try to kill their opponent? I suspect given that comment, we won't find common ground, but for others' benefit: > It paid off incredibly well actually. Why do you think Germany is the first industrial power in Europe? Who's selling them all the cheap gas that keeps the industries going? Germany decided to wean itself off atom and onto gas/renewables. That was a political decision, which drove energy prices up. France instead doubled-down on nuclear and is doing just fine. Affordable energy is achievable without Russian gas, just not overnight. For sure the going was good for Germany for a while, but now they find they are held by the balls.
mihaaly 4y ago
It is one thing protecting interest and an other abusing a possibility almost all the time, blackmailing allies and distorting group efforts. Btw. the ruling party - practically means Orbán himself - is more like protecting personal interest than the contry's, likely (very likely) financial interests of self while the country's interest is completely elsewhere concerning both financial and the big picture.

jcranberry 4y ago

What would be realistic fallout from vetoing their application?

rich_sasha 4y ago
Well, plenty of potential things. In strictly defence terms, they buy weaponry from US and Germany. Hungarian air force operates Swedish Gripen fighters and thus most likely relies on Sweden at least for spare parts (which military jets need lots of) so here's another pressure point. They are big beneficiaries of EU funding (not a NATO thing but this is all intertwined) and already at odds with EU rules, which could push them towards not getting the funding - there are plenty of reasons to implement that already, just lacking political will right now. They can find themselves sidelined for new EU spending, political nominations, and so on. The question would of course be if EU/NATO want to do that. It's part of the usual political horse-trading game. For sure, in the extreme scenario if US/EU/main partners really wanted Finland and Sweden to join and Hungary vetoed, it could be made to pay an unaffordable price.
- bnt 4y ago
  Sweden not selling them parts would be the end of Sweden selling planes to anyone.
  - stickfigure 4y ago
    Sweden entering NATO could be the beginning of Sweden selling planes to NATO.
    - trashtester 4y ago
      I don't think there is much demand for JAS Gripen in Nato countries at this day. 4th gen fighters do not have much lifetime left in them, and F35 is increasingly taking the role of the current-gen fighter for advanced nations. But Sweden is already member of the Cuture Combat Air System (FCAS) initiative to create a 6th gen air war system of systems, alongside nato members. And this kind of colaboration will be even more natural when/if they join Nato.

fallingknife 4y ago

What I don't understand is what Hungary gains from splitting with the rest of the EU and NATO to help Russia. Doesn't seem beneficial to them.

rich_sasha 4y ago
The very short answer is that Hungary benefits both from membership in the Western block and from being Putin's friend inside it. So they presumably don't want to go as far as leave, but rather use that as a credible threat for leverage.
- teknopaul 4y ago
  If hungry tried to veto, Nato could evict them, then they would be facing Putin on their own. Nobody is Putin's friend. When you join his club he send the military in to make sure it goes his way.
  - eru 4y ago
    While I appreciate the sentiment, as long as Russia doesn't have a common border with Hungary, he won't be able to send the military. Who's gonna let him through?
    - guildan 4y ago
      La
      - eru 4y ago
        ?
        teknopaul 4y ago
        He didn't have a land border with the Crimea but that didn't stop him.
4y ago

hemreldop 4y ago

Regic 4y ago

The hungarian leading party (fidesz) has already declared they will not veto Ukrain's adoption to the EU so I personally really doubt they would veto Finland's entry to the NATO. They are playing a double-game (sorry, this probably doesn't make sense in english, it's a hungarian expression): Orban had a famous quote he said to EU leaders "don't listen to what I say, only to what I do", which in practice means alienating the EU in rhetoric but not so much in practice. Of course this is not so simple as other EU members also care about the rhetoric too but it still summarizes Orban's geopolitics fairly well. This is not unique either, Merkel had similar "two-faced" approach to Russia and even toward Hungary, Orban is just significantly less popular in the west due to his populist anti-democratic tendencies.

shreyshnaccount 4y ago
To stray from the topic, the double game phrase does make sense to me, possibly because it's also a Hindi phrase
- kn0where 4y ago
  I think the English equivalent is "playing both sides of the fence." Double game makes intuitive sense too though.
  - shreyshnaccount 4y ago
    And one of the Hindi phrases my mom uses "thali ka baingan" literally translates to "eggplant of the plate" doesn't make any sense in English but I love it xD. Hindi is a pretty beautiful language and people use so many colourful metaphors it's incredible!
- piva00 4y ago
  Same for me as a Brazilian, jogo duplo means literally double-game and it's a pretty popular expression. Probably in Portugal and other Portuguese-speaking countries as well.
  - 4y ago