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If Tether massively breaks the peg, there is a non-trivial chance of sub $2k BTC tomorrow
by NhanH 4y ago
If Tether massively breaks the peg, there is a non-trivial chance of sub $2k BTC tomorrow
- closewith 4y agoOr sub $20 BTC.
- anm89 4y agono
- anm89 4y agoStill don't think it's likely but agree with non trivial. I've got my popcorn ready.
- formerly_proven 4y ago*klaxons blaring*
- murderfs 4y agoOr, even more comically, "$"20,000,00 BTC, as people try to escape from a sinking tether.
- hackcasual 4y agoYeah, this shit creates chaos and makes it impossible to get a good read on the market. Wouldn't be surprised to see a record BTC ATH, though for ignominious reasons
- agumonkey 4y agoStabilization by symmetric bank runs.pdf
- unsupp0rted 4y agoWould BTC be worth buying at sub-$2k? I never saw the use-case for it. I’d sooner use a faster, cheaper, more energy-efficient, more centralized crypto like XLM or XRP. But even then: for payments it’s hard to compete with Visa/Mastercard for speed and safety. And as a store of value all crypto is crazy volatile. If BTC goes sub $2k, would anybody reasonably want it anymore or would the emperor have no clothes?
- qbasic_forever 4y agoThere's probably still some value in it for darknet activities like sales of illicit goods, ransom payments, etc.
- xmprt 4y agoI think what the poster is asking, is why wouldn't communities/darknet activites deal with other cryptocurrencies which are objectively better than Bitcoin in terms of functionality although they have a smaller community and network at the moment.
- Geee 4y agoYou guys are funny. Bitcoin is one of the largest currencies in the world with over 100 million users. Read the Bitcoin Standard to understand why.
- vinaychandranp 4y agoI believe most markets already encourage the use of other privacy oriented tokens like XMR.
- altdataseller 4y agoI think BTC will always be a gambling ecosystem at minimum. There will be ebbs and flows between it crashing and spiking for its entire lifetime.
- usednet 4y agoPretty much all under the table crypto transactions are in Monero, Zcash, or other privacy coins. Bitcoin’s utility is horrible compared to most other cryptos, its purely a store of value.
- mdrzn 4y agoBTC was at $5k on March 2020, before reaching $60k in April 2021. I wouldn't say it's ever gonna die.
- 4y ago
- smingo 4y agoThere is a correlation between BTC and GPU / graphics card price. And there's the stupid quantities of energy devoted to mining. At some point, processing bitcoin will become uneconomic. It will then be unspendable, and the price will then drop to zero.
- comex 4y agoIf blocks aren’t being mined fast enough, the difficulty level automatically goes down, resulting in a higher reward for the same hash rate. So in theory, processing bitcoin should never become uneconomic.
- can16358p 4y agoThis. It can never be economically zero as it has been "bootstrapped" once, in 2009. Someone will always have incentive to mint cheap.
- TylerE 4y agoYes, the problem is it only does that around every two weeks - and that’s at a normal block rate. If hash rate were to suddenly drop say 90% then it could take months to adjust
- rawoke083600 4y agoYes, apart from everyone's views on crypto itself. As a programmer or system designer I urge everyone (who hasn't already) look at the "system design" of bitcoin ! It's beautiful and elegant, like a self-correcting organism ! Ja sure it's not perfect, but dammit it's a hell of a lot better than what I could have come up with :) I'm of course ONLY talking about the system-design components here: (difficulty, mining, minting rate, consensus, ledger etc) YMMV
- mschuster91 4y agoAfter two weeks the difficulty factor should be going down to match the reduced hash rate of the network.
- fastball 4y agoTo me that math doesn't add up very well. Let's assume that 5 minutes from now, Tether drops to zero. Turns out Tethers were approximately 100% unbacked. There are currently ~$80B USDT in circulation. Even if you also assume 100% of USDT holders were also Bitcoin maxis who were using USDT as a "stable store of value" when they periodically want to exit their BTC position, the market cap of Bitcoin is still ~$500B, so the $80B -> 0 drop is still only 16% of BTC's market cap (and obviously USDT is not only being used to exit BTC positions but also ETH and every other crypto besides).
- NhanH 4y agoIt's more about the lack of confidence in crypto ecosystem and other second order effects (bitfinex going bankrupt, all others exchange on shaky ground etc) rather than the direct selling of btc/usdt
- gassit 4y agoThis isn't how it works. You need to look at how much of the flows into BTC (supporting the price) are coming from Tether. You will find this is a whole lot more than 16%. So if it drops to zero 5 minutes from now (not going to happen, but just to use the same scenario), then all those flows which supported the price drop to zero. A comparison between the relative market caps doesn't tell you much, it's the buying volume it supplies. The 24 hour trading volume for Tether is $175B. The 24 hour trading volume for BTC is $80B (as I write this). Tether is the money in the system.
- fastball 4y agoThat's not really how it works either. If the 24hr USDT volume is $175B, that just means people are trading the same USDT for other things multiple times in a 24 hour period. That's it. But two people cannot use the same Tether to buy different things at the same time, so market inflation due to USDT can never really be beyond its market cap. Tether is a vehicle, not the money in the system. People use Tether because it can be traded against your favorite coin on your favorite exchange. For example Binance (the largest crypto exchange) doesn't offer any USD pairs, so if you are someone with a lot of dollars you buy some USDT with your USD at 1-to-1, then you go trade that USDT for whatever you want. USDT causes a crash in crypto based on two properties: actual fraud / funny money shenanigans and market sentiment. I was only really addressing the former in my analysis, because "market sentiment" is basically impossible to do anything useful with in a future-telling sense.