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I don't disagree, but that also does not indicate a defeat. Russia seems committed to the war, and while they have had a... questionable performance thus far, i

I don't disagree, but that also does not indicate a defeat. Russia seems committed to the war, and while they have had a... questionable performance thus far, it really seems like they aren't exactly on the edge of a collapse. I would've agreed with you 3 months ago that russia would've needed a very very quick victory to avoid an economic collapse but right now, I don't see that having a huge effect anymore either. The internal situation is probably better for putin now than before the war and their economy has proven to be oddly resilient. Though time is still against them, because the ukrainian army gets better equipment and training by the day. Obviously the russians have not won, but the title is weird and reminds me of an opposite, almost equally uninformed, narrative that was common in the weeks before the war (ukraine will fall in days!). We have been hearing "imminent coup d'état/putin is hiding/ the military is about to mutiny" predictions daily since the beginning of the war, and I honestly don't see the point. If anything, it's super counterproductive (PR wise) to the ukrainian cause.

tinus_hn 5y ago
Their threats of the use of nuclear arms turned out to be a bluff that has been called and two of their most important neighbors switched from neutral to allied with their enemies.
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otagekki 5y ago
If not for the massive aid and influx of weapons from NATO, It would have fallen in days. Ukrainian airforce got quickly overwhelmed in the first days of war and it was the shipment of NATO anti-aircraft missiles that allowed them to challenge Russian air supremacy.
- vasac 5y ago
  NATO supplied them with Stingers which can be used only against low level flying airplanes. What keeps Russians from gaining air supremacy are numerous S-300 and Buk batteries that make flying Su-25 or Su-34 outside of Stinger range very dangerous so Russians almost don't fly that high at all.
- chii 5y ago
  > Ukrainian airforce got quickly overwhelmed in the first days of war that's not strictly true. While russia has majority air superiority, they don't have complete superiority which prevents sorties from ukraine. I think ukraine is fighting quite valiantly at the beginning, when the world expected them to lose. And the west probably was shocked at their actual performance (as well as the incompetence of the russian military). It was direct evidence that ukraine could at least hold out, which means the support and equipment from the west could have time to roll in.
  - alaricus 4y ago
    Ukrainian air force is probably all destroyed by now. It's the Turkish drones that are still flying. They are easier to hide and don't need the same level of infrastructure that airplanes need. I don't know if drones count as airforce or something else. It's just semantics.
    - p_l 4y ago
      Actually evidence shows up of more Ukrainian strike planes flying than before, mostly Su-25 and Su-24 caught on camera. Also fighter force while heavily reduced was continuously flying sorties and helped deny air superiority to Russia, though due to numbers it wasn't as visible as the infamous SAM hits.

tinus_hn 5y ago

Their threats of the use of nuclear arms turned out to be a bluff that has been called and two of their most important neighbors switched from neutral to allied with their enemies.

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otagekki 5y ago

If not for the massive aid and influx of weapons from NATO, It would have fallen in days. Ukrainian airforce got quickly overwhelmed in the first days of war and it was the shipment of NATO anti-aircraft missiles that allowed them to challenge Russian air supremacy.

vasac 5y ago
NATO supplied them with Stingers which can be used only against low level flying airplanes. What keeps Russians from gaining air supremacy are numerous S-300 and Buk batteries that make flying Su-25 or Su-34 outside of Stinger range very dangerous so Russians almost don't fly that high at all.
chii 5y ago
> Ukrainian airforce got quickly overwhelmed in the first days of war that's not strictly true. While russia has majority air superiority, they don't have complete superiority which prevents sorties from ukraine. I think ukraine is fighting quite valiantly at the beginning, when the world expected them to lose. And the west probably was shocked at their actual performance (as well as the incompetence of the russian military). It was direct evidence that ukraine could at least hold out, which means the support and equipment from the west could have time to roll in.
- alaricus 4y ago
  Ukrainian air force is probably all destroyed by now. It's the Turkish drones that are still flying. They are easier to hide and don't need the same level of infrastructure that airplanes need. I don't know if drones count as airforce or something else. It's just semantics.
  - p_l 4y ago
    Actually evidence shows up of more Ukrainian strike planes flying than before, mostly Su-25 and Su-24 caught on camera. Also fighter force while heavily reduced was continuously flying sorties and helped deny air superiority to Russia, though due to numbers it wasn't as visible as the infamous SAM hits.