4 ms·

The tech recession is going to be great for Apple's back to the office plans.

3a2d29 4y ago
At the risk of turning this entire comment section into RTO debate, I want to sorta second this. RTO will be so much easier when the job market is flooded with failed start-up engineers and the tech industry cools off.
- lamontcg 4y ago
  They're much more concerned with unionization and wage increases further down the economic ladder. Tech worker RTO isn't their primary concern.
ThrowawayR2 4y ago
It'll be great for every business's back to office plans. If we really are entering a major tech downturn, employers are going to be in the driver's seat in a way that will have the HN "I would never ever work for a corporation that requires in-office/leetcode/etc." crowd reeling.
- kadoban 4y ago
  Smart corps should have realized by now that offices are a huge, mostly unnecessary cost. There will be a bunch of places not forcing RTO.
  - ThrowawayR2 4y ago
    Smart corps should have realized by now that open office spaces are disliked by employees, are noisy, etc. Looks like there aren't very many smart corps...
    - kadoban 4y ago
      True. But the difference here is that the corp directly and immediately benefits, by reduced costs. It's easier to be smart if it means more money in your pocket. Cost is probably part of why open offices were a thing anyway, reduced costs and more flexibility. So incentives are aligned with WFH, but weren't with open office bullshit. That should be the difference here.
- the_only_law 4y ago
  Luckily I’ve been planning to jump ship early.
- gopher_space 4y ago
  A "tech downturn" isn't the same thing as a lack of work for programmers. The volume of work to be done across all industries is immense, and it's profitable for everyone.
  - paganel 4y ago
    Can’t speak for the US but the EU is literally throwing hundreds of billions of euros right at this moment for “digitalization” and such as part of their post-pandemic recovery plan, it’s a gold rush (relatively speaking) for IT-related people who know where to look.
dangerwill 4y ago
I think you'll find that "tech" has embedded itself into every business down to the very core. If anything what we'll see are companies that never made any economic or legal sense (uber, airbnb, coinbase) go under with simply churn in the social media space (bytedance supplanting meta). I think tech workers who can actually engineer/code will always have a strong place in the market, though I do bet that we will see an end to offers over $200k for all but exceptional ICs
- Despegar 4y ago
  Tech might be "embedded" but that doesn't mean their stocks had reasonable valuations. Small/mid cap tech is down 50-75% because they weren't. Every Apple employee is watching their stock portfolios melt down and AAPL holding up relatively well. Bargaining power is shifting from employees to Apple in real time. Suddenly job security is more important than WFH. VC will follow the public markets, as it always does. Valuations will tank and funding will dry up.
- hderms 4y ago
  What would make you think that tech offers will go down? Why would a company making X revenue per engineer not offer a maximum of something like 80% of X? Not to mention inflation and low unemployment numbers. even if what you're saying is true, how could it stay that way for longer than a year or so
  - missedthecue 4y ago
    Because they might be able to get the labor they want for less than 80%?
  - cannaceo 4y ago
    Because revenue doesn't matter right now. Net income after taxes (NIAT) does. Engineer salaries have been subsidized by VC and low interest rates. Now that that's drying up layoffs are coming and under-funded companies will start folding. Labor will (hopefully) be efficiently reallocated towards companies that can actually generate profits from that labor. The number of tech companies that can do that are few.
lamontcg 4y ago
So far this isn't a recession and isn't a tech recession. There's 3.6% unemployment, 11.5 million job openings in March, up from 11.3 million in Feb, which is twice the number of job seekers. The US added 431,000 new jobs in April. There was a blip in GDP but it can be explained by bullwhip effects still rippling through the economy from the pandemic, and china lockdowns. And mostly the negative effects we're seeing here is hitting all the froth (unicorns, crypto, VC, overpriced tech stocks). Unless there's contagion from something really large popping soon, this looks more like a correction.

At the risk of turning this entire comment section into RTO debate, I want to sorta second this. RTO will be so much easier when the job market is flooded with failed start-up engineers and the tech industry cools off.

lamontcg 4y ago
They're much more concerned with unionization and wage increases further down the economic ladder. Tech worker RTO isn't their primary concern.

ThrowawayR2 4y ago

It'll be great for every business's back to office plans. If we really are entering a major tech downturn, employers are going to be in the driver's seat in a way that will have the HN "I would never ever work for a corporation that requires in-office/leetcode/etc." crowd reeling.

kadoban 4y ago
Smart corps should have realized by now that offices are a huge, mostly unnecessary cost. There will be a bunch of places not forcing RTO.
- ThrowawayR2 4y ago
  Smart corps should have realized by now that open office spaces are disliked by employees, are noisy, etc. Looks like there aren't very many smart corps...
  - kadoban 4y ago
    True. But the difference here is that the corp directly and immediately benefits, by reduced costs. It's easier to be smart if it means more money in your pocket. Cost is probably part of why open offices were a thing anyway, reduced costs and more flexibility. So incentives are aligned with WFH, but weren't with open office bullshit. That should be the difference here.
the_only_law 4y ago
Luckily I’ve been planning to jump ship early.
gopher_space 4y ago
A "tech downturn" isn't the same thing as a lack of work for programmers. The volume of work to be done across all industries is immense, and it's profitable for everyone.
- paganel 4y ago
  Can’t speak for the US but the EU is literally throwing hundreds of billions of euros right at this moment for “digitalization” and such as part of their post-pandemic recovery plan, it’s a gold rush (relatively speaking) for IT-related people who know where to look.

dangerwill 4y ago

I think you'll find that "tech" has embedded itself into every business down to the very core. If anything what we'll see are companies that never made any economic or legal sense (uber, airbnb, coinbase) go under with simply churn in the social media space (bytedance supplanting meta). I think tech workers who can actually engineer/code will always have a strong place in the market, though I do bet that we will see an end to offers over $200k for all but exceptional ICs

Despegar 4y ago
Tech might be "embedded" but that doesn't mean their stocks had reasonable valuations. Small/mid cap tech is down 50-75% because they weren't. Every Apple employee is watching their stock portfolios melt down and AAPL holding up relatively well. Bargaining power is shifting from employees to Apple in real time. Suddenly job security is more important than WFH. VC will follow the public markets, as it always does. Valuations will tank and funding will dry up.
hderms 4y ago
What would make you think that tech offers will go down? Why would a company making X revenue per engineer not offer a maximum of something like 80% of X? Not to mention inflation and low unemployment numbers. even if what you're saying is true, how could it stay that way for longer than a year or so
- missedthecue 4y ago
  Because they might be able to get the labor they want for less than 80%?
- cannaceo 4y ago
  Because revenue doesn't matter right now. Net income after taxes (NIAT) does. Engineer salaries have been subsidized by VC and low interest rates. Now that that's drying up layoffs are coming and under-funded companies will start folding. Labor will (hopefully) be efficiently reallocated towards companies that can actually generate profits from that labor. The number of tech companies that can do that are few.

lamontcg 4y ago

So far this isn't a recession and isn't a tech recession. There's 3.6% unemployment, 11.5 million job openings in March, up from 11.3 million in Feb, which is twice the number of job seekers. The US added 431,000 new jobs in April. There was a blip in GDP but it can be explained by bullwhip effects still rippling through the economy from the pandemic, and china lockdowns. And mostly the negative effects we're seeing here is hitting all the froth (unicorns, crypto, VC, overpriced tech stocks). Unless there's contagion from something really large popping soon, this looks more like a correction.