5 ms·

It's true. If I wanted to make a stronger argument that people who held the opposite opinion weren't "a quite small minority," then I could've used another poll

It's true. If I wanted to make a stronger argument that people who held the opposite opinion weren't "a quite small minority," then I could've used another poll like you've suggested. It would make the same argument, but wouldn't be open to your tangent argument, which doesn't contradict the underlying point.

camgunz 4y ago
Grandparent made a claim "There are people who believe that America is collapsing if Roe v Wade isn’t overturned." You responded with a Likert scale question from Rasmussen, which is not a good source and isn't the correct question. I pointed out Rasmussen isn't a good source and gave a better one, staying out of the broader fray. You're right that neither survey asks the correct question, so I think there still is no evidence about grandparent's "collapse" claim.
- bitshiftfaced 4y ago
  > You're right that neither survey asks the correct question I don't recall saying this. This is getting complex, so let's recap: GGP: "No, American is not collapsing" GP: "There are people who believe that America is collapsing if Roe v Wade isn’t overturned." There are multiple ways to interpret this, and I've been referring to it in the sense of, "for them, overturning Roe vs Wade means America isn't collapsing." P: "A quite small minority". Meaning, if I've used the correct interpretation, "quite a small minority think America will collapse if Roe vs Wade isn't overturned." You could say that both camps who believe America is collapsing is "quite a small minority" of Americans. However, I was interpreting the statement in the sense of, "quite a small minority of the set of people who believe America is collapsing." From the most recent Gallup poll, a third of people wanted the court to overturn Roe vs Wade. My point was that if the subset of those who believe America is collapsing is politically divided in a similar ratio as the superset (those polled about wanting/not wanting Roe vs Wade overturned), then we wouldn't expect either to be a very small minority, since 30% isn't close to a very small minority.
  - camgunz 4y ago
    You can't take a survey question about support for Roe and turn it into "some number of people who strongly disagree with Roe must believe that America is collapsing". A survey question that measured that would be worded something like "Do you agree with this statement: the Supreme Court's decision in Roe v Wade is evidence of America's collapse" (although this is pretty much a push poll question). You're extrapolating, which is another way of saying "using evidence of thing A to assert thing B, for which you have no evidence".
    - bitshiftfaced 4y ago
      > You can't take a survey question about support for Roe and turn it into "some number of people who strongly disagree with Roe must believe that America is collapsing". Agreed. Just because someone strongly disagrees or agrees with Roe doesn't mean they must believe that America is collapsing with or without it. You agree that there exists Americans who believe that America's collapsing, right? As the article's author said, there have always been people who believe this ("doomers"). He quoted some from Twitter. Assuming you agree that there is some population of doomers, within that set there must exist those who think upholding/removing Roe contributes to America's collapse. Why wouldn't that subset of people be divided in a similar ratio as the population at large is divided on whether or not they think the courts should uphold Roe?
      - camgunz 4y ago
        > Why wouldn't that subset of people be divided in a similar ratio as the population at large is divided on whether or not they think the courts should uphold Roe? It might be; it might not be. There's no way to know from the survey you linked.
        bitshiftfaced 4y ago
        Since there are people who believe America is collapsing and consider the abortion ruling a reason why, we're trying to decide which is true: A) Those who think overturning Roe has to do with the collapse are a great majority and those who think upholding it has to do with the collapse is a great minority, or vice versa. B) The ratio from both camps is not that one sided, and neither could be described "a great minority." You're saying that we can't know anything about whether 'B' is more likely than 'A' based on what the Gallup poll you linked that questions the population on whether they want Roe upheld or not. I disagree. I believe it gives us a bayesian prior for the distribution of the population's attitudes. I think it's reasonable to expect that someone who thinks America is collapsing partly due to Roe being issue will likely think it's due to upholding it if they also believe they think Roe should be upheld. Why would a person think America is collapsing if Roe is upheld also believe Roe should be overturned? That wouldn't make sense. Since the population we're focusing on is a subset of that distribution, and since no other evidence has been given for why this distribution should differ, then case 'B' seems more likely.

camgunz 4y ago

Grandparent made a claim "There are people who believe that America is collapsing if Roe v Wade isn’t overturned." You responded with a Likert scale question from Rasmussen, which is not a good source and isn't the correct question. I pointed out Rasmussen isn't a good source and gave a better one, staying out of the broader fray. You're right that neither survey asks the correct question, so I think there still is no evidence about grandparent's "collapse" claim.

bitshiftfaced 4y ago
> You're right that neither survey asks the correct question I don't recall saying this. This is getting complex, so let's recap: GGP: "No, American is not collapsing" GP: "There are people who believe that America is collapsing if Roe v Wade isn’t overturned." There are multiple ways to interpret this, and I've been referring to it in the sense of, "for them, overturning Roe vs Wade means America isn't collapsing." P: "A quite small minority". Meaning, if I've used the correct interpretation, "quite a small minority think America will collapse if Roe vs Wade isn't overturned." You could say that both camps who believe America is collapsing is "quite a small minority" of Americans. However, I was interpreting the statement in the sense of, "quite a small minority of the set of people who believe America is collapsing." From the most recent Gallup poll, a third of people wanted the court to overturn Roe vs Wade. My point was that if the subset of those who believe America is collapsing is politically divided in a similar ratio as the superset (those polled about wanting/not wanting Roe vs Wade overturned), then we wouldn't expect either to be a very small minority, since 30% isn't close to a very small minority.
- camgunz 4y ago
  You can't take a survey question about support for Roe and turn it into "some number of people who strongly disagree with Roe must believe that America is collapsing". A survey question that measured that would be worded something like "Do you agree with this statement: the Supreme Court's decision in Roe v Wade is evidence of America's collapse" (although this is pretty much a push poll question). You're extrapolating, which is another way of saying "using evidence of thing A to assert thing B, for which you have no evidence".
  - bitshiftfaced 4y ago
    > You can't take a survey question about support for Roe and turn it into "some number of people who strongly disagree with Roe must believe that America is collapsing". Agreed. Just because someone strongly disagrees or agrees with Roe doesn't mean they must believe that America is collapsing with or without it. You agree that there exists Americans who believe that America's collapsing, right? As the article's author said, there have always been people who believe this ("doomers"). He quoted some from Twitter. Assuming you agree that there is some population of doomers, within that set there must exist those who think upholding/removing Roe contributes to America's collapse. Why wouldn't that subset of people be divided in a similar ratio as the population at large is divided on whether or not they think the courts should uphold Roe?
    - camgunz 4y ago
      > Why wouldn't that subset of people be divided in a similar ratio as the population at large is divided on whether or not they think the courts should uphold Roe? It might be; it might not be. There's no way to know from the survey you linked.
      - bitshiftfaced 4y ago
        Since there are people who believe America is collapsing and consider the abortion ruling a reason why, we're trying to decide which is true: A) Those who think overturning Roe has to do with the collapse are a great majority and those who think upholding it has to do with the collapse is a great minority, or vice versa. B) The ratio from both camps is not that one sided, and neither could be described "a great minority." You're saying that we can't know anything about whether 'B' is more likely than 'A' based on what the Gallup poll you linked that questions the population on whether they want Roe upheld or not. I disagree. I believe it gives us a bayesian prior for the distribution of the population's attitudes. I think it's reasonable to expect that someone who thinks America is collapsing partly due to Roe being issue will likely think it's due to upholding it if they also believe they think Roe should be upheld. Why would a person think America is collapsing if Roe is upheld also believe Roe should be overturned? That wouldn't make sense. Since the population we're focusing on is a subset of that distribution, and since no other evidence has been given for why this distribution should differ, then case 'B' seems more likely.