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There are people who believe that America is collapsing if Roe v Wade isn’t overturned.

by immigrantheart 4y ago

ncmncm 4y ago
A quite small minority
- bitshiftfaced 4y ago
  > The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would approve of a Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, including 32% who would Strongly Approve. Forty-five percent (45%) would disapprove of overturning Roe v. Wade, including 35% who would Strongly Disapprove. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/public_surveys/roe_v_wade_voters_divided_about_repealing_decision https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/pub...
  - camgunz 4y ago
    I've tried to stay out of this and I'll continue to do so, but here's a couple problems: - Rasmussen isn't a pollster so much as a right-wing polling window shifter (we sample the "real" America). They're consistently tilted to the right, on purpose. - Sampling "likely" voters also biases heavily toward the right (something between 4-9 points). Sampling "registered" voters has a similar leftward bias, which is why pollsters have to control for it, or sample Americans and not simply "voters" (when doing election polling you want voters, when doing opinion polling you want Americans, if you're doing voters for opinion polling you're gaming the results). Gallup's poll is a much better resource on this [0], specifically 58% oppose "the Supreme Court overturn[ing] its 1973 Roe v. Wade decision". [0]: https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx
    - bitshiftfaced 4y ago
      It's true. If I wanted to make a stronger argument that people who held the opposite opinion weren't "a quite small minority," then I could've used another poll like you've suggested. It would make the same argument, but wouldn't be open to your tangent argument, which doesn't contradict the underlying point.
      - camgunz 4y ago
        Grandparent made a claim "There are people who believe that America is collapsing if Roe v Wade isn’t overturned." You responded with a Likert scale question from Rasmussen, which is not a good source and isn't the correct question. I pointed out Rasmussen isn't a good source and gave a better one, staying out of the broader fray. You're right that neither survey asks the correct question, so I think there still is no evidence about grandparent's "collapse" claim.
        bitshiftfaced 4y ago
        > You're right that neither survey asks the correct question I don't recall saying this. This is getting complex, so let's recap: GGP: "No, American is not collapsing" GP: "There are people who believe that America is collapsing if Roe v Wade isn’t overturned." There are multiple ways to interpret this, and I've been referring to it in the sense of, "for them, overturning Roe vs Wade means America isn't collapsing." P: "A quite small minority". Meaning, if I've used the correct interpretation, "quite a small minority think America will collapse if Roe vs Wade isn't overturned." You could say that both camps who believe America is collapsing is "quite a small minority" of Americans. However, I was interpreting the statement in the sense of, "quite a small minority of the set of people who believe America is collapsing." From the most recent Gallup poll, a third of people wanted the court to overturn Roe vs Wade. My point was that if the subset of those who believe America is collapsing is politically divided in a similar ratio as the superset (those polled about wanting/not wanting Roe vs Wade overturned), then we wouldn't expect either to be a very small minority, since 30% isn't close to a very small minority.
        camgunz 4y ago
- pessimizer 4y ago
  For some reason, both liberals and right-wingers need to think that they're the vast majority of people, and if there were real democracy everything would be going their way.
myvoiceismypass 4y ago
What are the odds that abortion rights are the last one this court strips away from Americans?
- jimmaswell 4y ago
  This court is at least poised to restore some of our gun rights, and the next democratic majority is free to pass an actual federal law on abortion. Even supporting abortion myself, you have to admit Roe's legal argument was questionable at best and living on borrowed time.
  - megaman821 4y ago
    No matter what your stance is on many issues, the legislative branch has spent the last two decades trying to do the least amount of work possible. Executive Orders and judicial decisions have taken over from laws actually being passed, while the legislature concerns themselves with budget resolutions and new national holidays.
    - CabSauce 4y ago
      I don't think that's completely true. The House has passed 358 bills this term that the Senate won't even vote on.
      - megaman821 4y ago
        Maybe I am too cynical on politicians, but if you are nearly 100% sure the Senate won't pick up your bills, you can pass anything you want to signal to your base. You don't have to worry about compromise or feasibility.
        CabSauce 4y ago
        While probably true in some percentage of cases, isn't that indicative that the underlying issue actually exists?

There are people who believe that America is collapsing if Roe v Wade isn’t overturned.

ncmncm 4y ago

A quite small minority

bitshiftfaced 4y ago
> The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would approve of a Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, including 32% who would Strongly Approve. Forty-five percent (45%) would disapprove of overturning Roe v. Wade, including 35% who would Strongly Disapprove. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/public_surveys/roe_v_wade_voters_divided_about_repealing_decision https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/pub...
- camgunz 4y ago
  I've tried to stay out of this and I'll continue to do so, but here's a couple problems: - Rasmussen isn't a pollster so much as a right-wing polling window shifter (we sample the "real" America). They're consistently tilted to the right, on purpose. - Sampling "likely" voters also biases heavily toward the right (something between 4-9 points). Sampling "registered" voters has a similar leftward bias, which is why pollsters have to control for it, or sample Americans and not simply "voters" (when doing election polling you want voters, when doing opinion polling you want Americans, if you're doing voters for opinion polling you're gaming the results). Gallup's poll is a much better resource on this [0], specifically 58% oppose "the Supreme Court overturn[ing] its 1973 Roe v. Wade decision". [0]: https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx
  - bitshiftfaced 4y ago
    It's true. If I wanted to make a stronger argument that people who held the opposite opinion weren't "a quite small minority," then I could've used another poll like you've suggested. It would make the same argument, but wouldn't be open to your tangent argument, which doesn't contradict the underlying point.
    - camgunz 4y ago
      Grandparent made a claim "There are people who believe that America is collapsing if Roe v Wade isn’t overturned." You responded with a Likert scale question from Rasmussen, which is not a good source and isn't the correct question. I pointed out Rasmussen isn't a good source and gave a better one, staying out of the broader fray. You're right that neither survey asks the correct question, so I think there still is no evidence about grandparent's "collapse" claim.
      - bitshiftfaced 4y ago
        > You're right that neither survey asks the correct question I don't recall saying this. This is getting complex, so let's recap: GGP: "No, American is not collapsing" GP: "There are people who believe that America is collapsing if Roe v Wade isn’t overturned." There are multiple ways to interpret this, and I've been referring to it in the sense of, "for them, overturning Roe vs Wade means America isn't collapsing." P: "A quite small minority". Meaning, if I've used the correct interpretation, "quite a small minority think America will collapse if Roe vs Wade isn't overturned." You could say that both camps who believe America is collapsing is "quite a small minority" of Americans. However, I was interpreting the statement in the sense of, "quite a small minority of the set of people who believe America is collapsing." From the most recent Gallup poll, a third of people wanted the court to overturn Roe vs Wade. My point was that if the subset of those who believe America is collapsing is politically divided in a similar ratio as the superset (those polled about wanting/not wanting Roe vs Wade overturned), then we wouldn't expect either to be a very small minority, since 30% isn't close to a very small minority.
        camgunz 4y ago
pessimizer 4y ago
For some reason, both liberals and right-wingers need to think that they're the vast majority of people, and if there were real democracy everything would be going their way.

myvoiceismypass 4y ago

What are the odds that abortion rights are the last one this court strips away from Americans?

jimmaswell 4y ago
This court is at least poised to restore some of our gun rights, and the next democratic majority is free to pass an actual federal law on abortion. Even supporting abortion myself, you have to admit Roe's legal argument was questionable at best and living on borrowed time.
- megaman821 4y ago
  No matter what your stance is on many issues, the legislative branch has spent the last two decades trying to do the least amount of work possible. Executive Orders and judicial decisions have taken over from laws actually being passed, while the legislature concerns themselves with budget resolutions and new national holidays.
  - CabSauce 4y ago
    I don't think that's completely true. The House has passed 358 bills this term that the Senate won't even vote on.
    - megaman821 4y ago
      Maybe I am too cynical on politicians, but if you are nearly 100% sure the Senate won't pick up your bills, you can pass anything you want to signal to your base. You don't have to worry about compromise or feasibility.
      - CabSauce 4y ago
        While probably true in some percentage of cases, isn't that indicative that the underlying issue actually exists?