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I also fully believe Bitfinex is likely to be manipulating USDT. It is the only way it makes sense. But check this out, here's why you should not wish too hard

by 0des 4y ago

I also fully believe Bitfinex is likely to be manipulating USDT. It is the only way it makes sense. But check this out, here's why you should not wish too hard on its failure: It is too big to fail because a lot of BTC would lose value over night, the entire plug would be pulled out of the industry due to the loss of confidence. Predatory and uninformed legislation would happen while the price and negotiating power is low, and in this time, that is when you really see the blood hit the floor with regard to scams, theft, crime, etc. Regardless of your position on USDT, you should pray this never happens. Edit: For the critics of cryptocurrencies responding below, allow me to make this response -- I didn't have anything to do with subprime mortgages, along with most of USA, however we all paid dearly for that mistake. As the comingling of cryptocurrency and traditional markets become increasingly intertwined, what makes you think that the ancillary effects of a crypto crash wouldn't effect you in some way?

tekstar 4y ago
Sorry where's the downside? That all sounds pretty good, especially for the environment.
- xvector 4y ago
  All of crypto barely uses more power (120 TWh) than a single hydroelectric dam produces (111 TWh.) The "bad for the environment" is a meaningless talking point used by people that are jealous they didn't "get in on it" early enough.
  - tptacek 4y ago
    Those numbers --- lower than numbers you can get from Google, but sure --- appear to say the same thing as "all of crypto uses barely more power than any but the top 28 energy-consuming countries in the world". Do let me know if I got the math wrong there!
    - xvector 4y ago
      Now you know that most most countries barely use any power! A single dam could power them! This is why the "crypto uses more power than X country" is a meaningless talking point.
      - tptacek 4y ago
        The list includes Sweden, Norway, Argentina, the Netherlands, the UAE, the Philippines, Finland, Belgium, Pakistan, Austria, the Czech Republic, Israel, Switzerland, and Singapore, among (obviously) many others. I don't think that statistic was the mic drop you thought it was. But sure, let's give them all 111TWh hydroelectric dams.
        gus_massa 4y ago
        Can you remove Argentina from the list? :) I'll copy an old comment by me, and the 2 parents comments for context. It was posted in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28420667 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28420667 (8 months ago) >>> So let's use the article's figure of 140 TWh of power used per year. Let's compare that to domestic energy usage by country https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/electricity-domestic-consumption-data.html https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/electricity-domest.... That's more than Argentina and about half of what the UK uses. >> From https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption/ https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption/ . >> Bitcoin would be the 27th most energy using country: ahead of Argentina (30), Sweden (29), and Ukraine (28); just below and about to overtake Malaysia (26), and below Egypt (25) and Poland (24). > A big chunk of our economy in Argentina is transforming sunlight into soybeans. So we should add it. Just imagine that we covered all the Pampa with solar panels and then use that energy to ... illuminate hydroponic soy. > From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Argentina#Production_per_commodity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Argentina#Produ... the cultivated area is 250.000km^2 . Let's assume 1000W/m^2 and a 10% of efficiency, 12 hours of sun per day, and 1/3 of the year of grow of the plants. Then I get 36.5TWh https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=250.000km%5E2+*1000W%2Fm%5E2+*+10%25+*+12h+*+365%2F3+to+TWh https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=250.000km%5E2+*1000W%2... (I had to guess a lot of things. I'd love to see a more accurate calculation.) > So with an additional energy of 36.5TWh, we jump from 132.7TWh to 169.2TWh that is more than the value of Poland 168.8TWh. (But other countries may want to add their solar->plants power too.)
  - saalweachter 4y ago
    > The Hoover Dam generates, on average, about 4 billion kilowatt-hours (4 TWh) of hydroelectric power each year for use in Nevada, Arizona, and California - enough to serve 1.3 million people. Edit: Looks like the "single hydroelectric plant" is the Three Gorges. Hot dam, that really puts Hoover to shame. > The Three Gorges Dam has been the world's largest power station in terms of installed capacity (22,500 MW) since 2012 (10% of China's electricity).
  - iciac 4y ago
    111TWh is well beyond a typical hydroelectric dam output (most are an order of magnitude lower storage and generation). As an example, the very sizable Australian Snowy Hydro 2.0 upon completion is estimated to have storage for 350GWh (the Australian national energy market is ~190TWh). The original Snowy Hydro (9 stations) has annual energy production of ~5GWh.
  - audunw 4y ago
    Oh, it only requires ALL the energy from by far the largest and most environmentally destructive hydroelectric dam on the planet? One that accounts for 10% of China's energy use? Oh, that's nothing at all then! /s How do guys like you keep a straight face saying things like this? This is an utterly insane amount of power. And putting into context the utility these crypto services are providing to most people (very little), it's even more insane. How much power would we be using if everyone actually started using PoW crypto for useful transactions regularly? And it's not just electricity, it's high-end silicon too. Cryptocurrencies is the first example of an algorithmic cancer IMO. (I cell that's tricking its host into thinking it's useful, but which mainly replicates and takes over resources as much as it can regardless of the utility the cells have to the host.)
- Siira 4y ago
  Central banks are a frequent source of exploitation. Burning some energy to reduce their power can be a worthwhile tradeoff.
  - AlexandrB 4y ago
    Central banks are saints walking the earth compared to the kind of exploitation going on in the crypto space. Remember "Save the Kids"?[1] [1] https://www.insider.com/faze-clan-save-the-kids-cryptocurrency-scam-controversy-2021-7 https://www.insider.com/faze-clan-save-the-kids-cryptocurren...
codefreeordie 4y ago
All of the crypto ponzi schemes going to zero and all the idiots who participated losing their shirts would really be a wonderfully great outcome. It's also inevitable eventually, all alternatives are just artificially prolonging the pain
- worik 4y ago
  > all the idiots who participated losing their shirts would really be a wonderfully great outcome. Very harsh. I can see no ethical way that they can keep their shirts (unethical is sell to greater fool). I do not think this is a "...great outcome". Wonderful or otrherwise It is yet another repeat of the age old lesson: There is no magic.
  - rtkwe 4y ago
    I'm convinced that's what NFTs were partially invented and pushed to do. Hot new shiny thing to bring new money in to let the original crypto group cash out.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - xvector 4y ago
      NFTs are a concept no different than Rai stones used by Micronesians for centuries, or any other property deeds style exchange. Hating on them is absurd - it's just another concept/financial construct.
      - vkou 4y ago
        As a concept, they are more like me selling a photograph of the deed to my house. Thinking that they solved a problem that anyone has ever had is what's absurd.
        ryanobjc 4y ago
ShamelessC 4y ago
Ah, "too big to fail"? Remind me, what about this whole cryptocurrency experiment is working the way its proponents claimed? > plug would be pulled out of the industry due to the loss of confidence. Sounds great! > Predatory and uninformed legislation would happen while the price and negotiating power is low, and in this time, that is when you really see the blood hit the floor with regard to scams, theft, crime, etc. I don't wish scams on anyone, but perhaps it's time we got this all over with, yeah? Seems like it's going to hurt more people in the long run.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
solarkraft 4y ago
> what makes you think that the ancillary effects of a crypto crash wouldn't effect you in some way? That it's not that intertwined yet. And such a crash would likely prevent a lot of such going forward, which is arguably very good news for the longer term.
gen220 4y ago
The scenario you describe is how I justify my stance as long btc/eth, but holding neither. When USDT pops, it will leave a huge vacuum in behind, and cause a lot of harm to the latest wave of crypto adopters (2017-on). Like your analogy to subprime mortgages, this crisis will precipitate serious regulation that probably won't quite go far enough, which is the final stage of institutionalization cryptocurrency has been missing. From that crater, it can only improve in terms of mass adoption. I'll be a holder again in the year 1, post-USDT.
Scarblac 4y ago
The crash is going to happen anyway, the longer it takes the more painful it will be.

by 0des 4y ago

tekstar 4y ago

Sorry where's the downside? That all sounds pretty good, especially for the environment.

xvector 4y ago
All of crypto barely uses more power (120 TWh) than a single hydroelectric dam produces (111 TWh.) The "bad for the environment" is a meaningless talking point used by people that are jealous they didn't "get in on it" early enough.
- tptacek 4y ago
  Those numbers --- lower than numbers you can get from Google, but sure --- appear to say the same thing as "all of crypto uses barely more power than any but the top 28 energy-consuming countries in the world". Do let me know if I got the math wrong there!
  - xvector 4y ago
    Now you know that most most countries barely use any power! A single dam could power them! This is why the "crypto uses more power than X country" is a meaningless talking point.
    - tptacek 4y ago
      The list includes Sweden, Norway, Argentina, the Netherlands, the UAE, the Philippines, Finland, Belgium, Pakistan, Austria, the Czech Republic, Israel, Switzerland, and Singapore, among (obviously) many others. I don't think that statistic was the mic drop you thought it was. But sure, let's give them all 111TWh hydroelectric dams.
      - gus_massa 4y ago
        Can you remove Argentina from the list? :) I'll copy an old comment by me, and the 2 parents comments for context. It was posted in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28420667 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28420667 (8 months ago) >>> So let's use the article's figure of 140 TWh of power used per year. Let's compare that to domestic energy usage by country https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/electricity-domestic-consumption-data.html https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/electricity-domest.... That's more than Argentina and about half of what the UK uses. >> From https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption/ https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption/ . >> Bitcoin would be the 27th most energy using country: ahead of Argentina (30), Sweden (29), and Ukraine (28); just below and about to overtake Malaysia (26), and below Egypt (25) and Poland (24). > A big chunk of our economy in Argentina is transforming sunlight into soybeans. So we should add it. Just imagine that we covered all the Pampa with solar panels and then use that energy to ... illuminate hydroponic soy. > From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Argentina#Production_per_commodity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Argentina#Produ... the cultivated area is 250.000km^2 . Let's assume 1000W/m^2 and a 10% of efficiency, 12 hours of sun per day, and 1/3 of the year of grow of the plants. Then I get 36.5TWh https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=250.000km%5E2+*1000W%2Fm%5E2+*+10%25+*+12h+*+365%2F3+to+TWh https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=250.000km%5E2+*1000W%2... (I had to guess a lot of things. I'd love to see a more accurate calculation.) > So with an additional energy of 36.5TWh, we jump from 132.7TWh to 169.2TWh that is more than the value of Poland 168.8TWh. (But other countries may want to add their solar->plants power too.)
- saalweachter 4y ago
  > The Hoover Dam generates, on average, about 4 billion kilowatt-hours (4 TWh) of hydroelectric power each year for use in Nevada, Arizona, and California - enough to serve 1.3 million people. Edit: Looks like the "single hydroelectric plant" is the Three Gorges. Hot dam, that really puts Hoover to shame. > The Three Gorges Dam has been the world's largest power station in terms of installed capacity (22,500 MW) since 2012 (10% of China's electricity).
- iciac 4y ago
  111TWh is well beyond a typical hydroelectric dam output (most are an order of magnitude lower storage and generation). As an example, the very sizable Australian Snowy Hydro 2.0 upon completion is estimated to have storage for 350GWh (the Australian national energy market is ~190TWh). The original Snowy Hydro (9 stations) has annual energy production of ~5GWh.
- audunw 4y ago
  Oh, it only requires ALL the energy from by far the largest and most environmentally destructive hydroelectric dam on the planet? One that accounts for 10% of China's energy use? Oh, that's nothing at all then! /s How do guys like you keep a straight face saying things like this? This is an utterly insane amount of power. And putting into context the utility these crypto services are providing to most people (very little), it's even more insane. How much power would we be using if everyone actually started using PoW crypto for useful transactions regularly? And it's not just electricity, it's high-end silicon too. Cryptocurrencies is the first example of an algorithmic cancer IMO. (I cell that's tricking its host into thinking it's useful, but which mainly replicates and takes over resources as much as it can regardless of the utility the cells have to the host.)
Siira 4y ago
Central banks are a frequent source of exploitation. Burning some energy to reduce their power can be a worthwhile tradeoff.
- AlexandrB 4y ago
  Central banks are saints walking the earth compared to the kind of exploitation going on in the crypto space. Remember "Save the Kids"?[1] [1] https://www.insider.com/faze-clan-save-the-kids-cryptocurrency-scam-controversy-2021-7 https://www.insider.com/faze-clan-save-the-kids-cryptocurren...

codefreeordie 4y ago

All of the crypto ponzi schemes going to zero and all the idiots who participated losing their shirts would really be a wonderfully great outcome. It's also inevitable eventually, all alternatives are just artificially prolonging the pain

worik 4y ago
> all the idiots who participated losing their shirts would really be a wonderfully great outcome. Very harsh. I can see no ethical way that they can keep their shirts (unethical is sell to greater fool). I do not think this is a "...great outcome". Wonderful or otrherwise It is yet another repeat of the age old lesson: There is no magic.
- rtkwe 4y ago
  I'm convinced that's what NFTs were partially invented and pushed to do. Hot new shiny thing to bring new money in to let the original crypto group cash out.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - xvector 4y ago
    NFTs are a concept no different than Rai stones used by Micronesians for centuries, or any other property deeds style exchange. Hating on them is absurd - it's just another concept/financial construct.
    - vkou 4y ago
      As a concept, they are more like me selling a photograph of the deed to my house. Thinking that they solved a problem that anyone has ever had is what's absurd.
      - ryanobjc 4y ago

ShamelessC 4y ago

Ah, "too big to fail"? Remind me, what about this whole cryptocurrency experiment is working the way its proponents claimed? > plug would be pulled out of the industry due to the loss of confidence. Sounds great! > Predatory and uninformed legislation would happen while the price and negotiating power is low, and in this time, that is when you really see the blood hit the floor with regard to scams, theft, crime, etc. I don't wish scams on anyone, but perhaps it's time we got this all over with, yeah? Seems like it's going to hurt more people in the long run.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

solarkraft 4y ago

> what makes you think that the ancillary effects of a crypto crash wouldn't effect you in some way? That it's not that intertwined yet. And such a crash would likely prevent a lot of such going forward, which is arguably very good news for the longer term.

gen220 4y ago

The scenario you describe is how I justify my stance as long btc/eth, but holding neither. When USDT pops, it will leave a huge vacuum in behind, and cause a lot of harm to the latest wave of crypto adopters (2017-on). Like your analogy to subprime mortgages, this crisis will precipitate serious regulation that probably won't quite go far enough, which is the final stage of institutionalization cryptocurrency has been missing. From that crater, it can only improve in terms of mass adoption. I'll be a holder again in the year 1, post-USDT.

Scarblac 4y ago

The crash is going to happen anyway, the longer it takes the more painful it will be.