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I spent a good first portion of my career badly picking startups that would fail. I got pretty darn good at sniffing failure. In 2018, I started getting those s

I spent a good first portion of my career badly picking startups that would fail. I got pretty darn good at sniffing failure. In 2018, I started getting those smells from the US itself. My family packed up and moved to the EU in 2018. I don’t regret it, not for a second.

peteradio 5y ago
Interesting, what smells were you picking up?
- freddybobs 5y ago
  I can't speak for original poster. But in 2018 - fascism, authoritarianism and break down of political discourse were very alarming. Now in 2022, we see it is likely Roe vs Wade gets overturned. The basis of that argument works for throwing out civil rights, contraception and voting rights. There are already moves in some states to make abortion murder and so punishable by death. And that's not even getting into the attempted coup. I'd say that's all pretty terrifying. I think I'd agree that in 2018, if you were paying attention, that the 'smell' was that's where we were heading. Now we are here.
  - immigrantheart 5y ago
    To be fair, people who are on the other side of the proverbial fence issue across you also see the same problem.
    - freddybobs 5y ago
      No 'they' don't. And prefixing with 'to be fair' is sadistically hilarious in context. To clarify. There are people who want fascism. Who want authoritarianism. Who are purposefully breaking political discourse. Who think women should be forced to have babies even if there is incest and rape. That if they get an abortion they could potentially get the death penalty. That white people are superior. That overthrowing the democracy is good (if they are doing the overthrowing). And on and on... So no and 'to be fair', 'the other side of the proverbial fence' absolutely do not 'also see the same problem.'
      - tiahura 5y ago
        To be fair, have a beer and chill out.
        hedora 5y ago
        I don't see how drinking will prevent the US from continuing to slide into an apartheid-style government. Unlike with apartheid, educated city dwellers are being oppressed by plutocrats and the willfully ignorant. Heck, rednecks can already drive across state lines with the intent of shooting some townies, then get off by claiming self defence.
      - mdp2021 5y ago
        Would you call that a new problem, or something with old roots? Nonetheless, the point of smelling points of no return is valid for all situations, where you can see looming crises but at the same time a provisionally livable state and "doom not fully scheduled".
      - immigrantheart 5y ago
        This is why we are divided now. So be it then.
  - gonehome 5y ago
    > “The basis of that argument works for throwing out civil rights, contraception and voting rights.” I don’t think this is true? I’m in favor of women having the right to abortion, but my understanding of the anti-abortion steelman position is that it stems from defending individual rights of the unborn (basically fetal personhood). That doesn’t really apply to restricting any of these other rights - it’s a special case (if anything it should be an argument for increasing availability of contraception). The real discussion should be about that bit imo, but both camps are often talking past each other without engaging on the core disagreement. For example, the bodily autonomy argument falls flat if you believe the unborn have individual rights that are being violated.
    - dataangel 5y ago
      The leak contains logic that deletes the rights to privacy and bodily autonomy completely. It can absolutely be generalized to saying contraception bans are constitutional.
      - tiahura 5y ago
        What about the bodily autonomy of the baby flushed down the toilet? You’re avoiding the point of the parent. There is nothing crazy about saying something that has its own elbows, asshole, DNA, brainwaves, and beating heart is a person and deserves protection. It’s quite a leap to get from that to banning condoms.
        hedora 5y ago
        The leaked opinion specifically states that, despite nullifying the legal arguments that prevent bans on consensual sex acts, gay marriage, civil rights and privacy, this ruling is not rolling those rights back yet.
- withinboredom 5y ago
  IMHO, one of the biggest differences between failing/successful businesses comes down to risk and how it is handled. A failing business usually takes one of two extremes: “fuck it” or “no way.” A business that isn’t actively failing looks for ways to mitigate risk, no matter how risk adverse it is. From some friends working in the nuclear sector (federal), the government was taking a “fuck it” approach, with some friends saying it was borderline reckless. Another thing is fear. A failing business gives you worry that your next paycheck won’t be coming. Not only has this happened numerous times to government employees since 2006, I realized how much general fear you live with in the US. As a resident, there was a constant underlying fear of dealing with police, to ending up on a hospital bed and no way to afford it (again). In a successful business, no one is living in fear — maybe stress, but not fear. Those are the two biggest smells I remember thinking about at the time. Is the US actually going to fail? I don’t think so. I think it’s too big to fail atm. If talent starts leaving the US in droves, that’d be the first harbinger in my opinion. But I can’t see the future and wars are usually good for the US, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the US provoke Russia or some other country into a pointless war.
mirceal 5y ago
a country is not a startup. actually most things are not startups. if things didn’t work out for you in the US that’s fine, just don’t assume you can see the future
- Glavnokoman 5y ago
  Why not? It is very young (on countries scale) and burns money of investors without producing much value. Typical startup.
  - Pulcinella 5y ago
    The US is one of the oldest countries in the world. It’s older than Italy, for example.
    - sgjohnson 5y ago
      Only if we’re considering strictly the entity.
      - tiahura 5y ago
        If we’re considering the land then they’re all the same.
    - rapsey 5y ago
      Exactly. People often think European countries are old. The nationalities sure, the political systems such as they are now were born after ww2.
      - TheCoelacanth 5y ago
        Even the nationalities are debatable. A lot of the national identities didn't form until the 18th or 19th centuries.
    - SapporoChris 5y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_date_of_formation#Sortable_list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_da... Highly debatable. However, I think most citizens would consider their nations age date of acquisition of sovereignty, not from the date of the current form of government or any other standard. Anyway, calling United States one of the oldest countries in the world is about as defensible as calling it one of the newest countries in the world. I just don't see the data for it.
mariojv 5y ago
EU was a great decision. Do you mind sharing which country you picked, and how the transition was for your family? One option we are considering is starting our family in the US and moving to the EU slightly later in life, but before the kids would start school. Adoption and surrogacy are generally harder or take longer in the EU, although the processes are substantially the same for same sex and opposite sex married couples, at least in western Europe.
- withinboredom 5y ago
  We picked the Netherlands for a number of reasons: - high taxes that you actually see the output of. Also, higher taxes than the US means not paying US taxes due to tax treaties, though you still have to file them. - Dutch-American Friendship Treaty (DAFT) means you can move here and start a business with minimal investment. - Our son was 3 when we moved here. He speaks fluent Dutch now and is on his way to learning Spanish and German.
justin66 5y ago
> I got pretty darn good at sniffing failure. In 2018, I started getting those smells from the US itself. My family packed up and moved to the EU in 2018. I don’t regret it, not for a second. Was Russia fighting a land war in Europe just a little blip on the radar that has not yet caused you to question your "sniffing" ability?
- mdp2021 5y ago
  That "operation" was the one of the last of the events ranked in the scale of "unforseeable". They said it, said it, said it and did it. In national terms, there are 200-ish options, not "plenty of fish in the sea".
robocat 5y ago
> picking startups that would fail. I got pretty darn good at sniffing failure Picking failures is easy because the majority of start-ups fail. If you pick failures 50% of the time, and 90% of startups fail, then actually you are really good at picking successes.
- withinboredom 5y ago
  100% of the first 5-6 businesses I worked at failed. Only one did I stay at beyond the end and help with selling off the IP as a consultant, and given some IP as payment. There was no cash. But since then, 100% of the businesses I’ve worked at are still in operation today (another 5).

peteradio 5y ago

Interesting, what smells were you picking up?

freddybobs 5y ago
I can't speak for original poster. But in 2018 - fascism, authoritarianism and break down of political discourse were very alarming. Now in 2022, we see it is likely Roe vs Wade gets overturned. The basis of that argument works for throwing out civil rights, contraception and voting rights. There are already moves in some states to make abortion murder and so punishable by death. And that's not even getting into the attempted coup. I'd say that's all pretty terrifying. I think I'd agree that in 2018, if you were paying attention, that the 'smell' was that's where we were heading. Now we are here.
- immigrantheart 5y ago
  To be fair, people who are on the other side of the proverbial fence issue across you also see the same problem.
  - freddybobs 5y ago
    No 'they' don't. And prefixing with 'to be fair' is sadistically hilarious in context. To clarify. There are people who want fascism. Who want authoritarianism. Who are purposefully breaking political discourse. Who think women should be forced to have babies even if there is incest and rape. That if they get an abortion they could potentially get the death penalty. That white people are superior. That overthrowing the democracy is good (if they are doing the overthrowing). And on and on... So no and 'to be fair', 'the other side of the proverbial fence' absolutely do not 'also see the same problem.'
    - tiahura 5y ago
      To be fair, have a beer and chill out.
      - hedora 5y ago
        I don't see how drinking will prevent the US from continuing to slide into an apartheid-style government. Unlike with apartheid, educated city dwellers are being oppressed by plutocrats and the willfully ignorant. Heck, rednecks can already drive across state lines with the intent of shooting some townies, then get off by claiming self defence.
    - mdp2021 5y ago
      Would you call that a new problem, or something with old roots? Nonetheless, the point of smelling points of no return is valid for all situations, where you can see looming crises but at the same time a provisionally livable state and "doom not fully scheduled".
    - immigrantheart 5y ago
      This is why we are divided now. So be it then.
- gonehome 5y ago
  > “The basis of that argument works for throwing out civil rights, contraception and voting rights.” I don’t think this is true? I’m in favor of women having the right to abortion, but my understanding of the anti-abortion steelman position is that it stems from defending individual rights of the unborn (basically fetal personhood). That doesn’t really apply to restricting any of these other rights - it’s a special case (if anything it should be an argument for increasing availability of contraception). The real discussion should be about that bit imo, but both camps are often talking past each other without engaging on the core disagreement. For example, the bodily autonomy argument falls flat if you believe the unborn have individual rights that are being violated.
  - dataangel 5y ago
    The leak contains logic that deletes the rights to privacy and bodily autonomy completely. It can absolutely be generalized to saying contraception bans are constitutional.
    - tiahura 5y ago
      What about the bodily autonomy of the baby flushed down the toilet? You’re avoiding the point of the parent. There is nothing crazy about saying something that has its own elbows, asshole, DNA, brainwaves, and beating heart is a person and deserves protection. It’s quite a leap to get from that to banning condoms.
      - hedora 5y ago
        The leaked opinion specifically states that, despite nullifying the legal arguments that prevent bans on consensual sex acts, gay marriage, civil rights and privacy, this ruling is not rolling those rights back yet.
withinboredom 5y ago
IMHO, one of the biggest differences between failing/successful businesses comes down to risk and how it is handled. A failing business usually takes one of two extremes: “fuck it” or “no way.” A business that isn’t actively failing looks for ways to mitigate risk, no matter how risk adverse it is. From some friends working in the nuclear sector (federal), the government was taking a “fuck it” approach, with some friends saying it was borderline reckless. Another thing is fear. A failing business gives you worry that your next paycheck won’t be coming. Not only has this happened numerous times to government employees since 2006, I realized how much general fear you live with in the US. As a resident, there was a constant underlying fear of dealing with police, to ending up on a hospital bed and no way to afford it (again). In a successful business, no one is living in fear — maybe stress, but not fear. Those are the two biggest smells I remember thinking about at the time. Is the US actually going to fail? I don’t think so. I think it’s too big to fail atm. If talent starts leaving the US in droves, that’d be the first harbinger in my opinion. But I can’t see the future and wars are usually good for the US, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the US provoke Russia or some other country into a pointless war.

mirceal 5y ago

a country is not a startup. actually most things are not startups. if things didn’t work out for you in the US that’s fine, just don’t assume you can see the future

Glavnokoman 5y ago
Why not? It is very young (on countries scale) and burns money of investors without producing much value. Typical startup.
- Pulcinella 5y ago
  The US is one of the oldest countries in the world. It’s older than Italy, for example.
  - sgjohnson 5y ago
    Only if we’re considering strictly the entity.
    - tiahura 5y ago
      If we’re considering the land then they’re all the same.
  - rapsey 5y ago
    Exactly. People often think European countries are old. The nationalities sure, the political systems such as they are now were born after ww2.
    - TheCoelacanth 5y ago
      Even the nationalities are debatable. A lot of the national identities didn't form until the 18th or 19th centuries.
  - SapporoChris 5y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_date_of_formation#Sortable_list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_da... Highly debatable. However, I think most citizens would consider their nations age date of acquisition of sovereignty, not from the date of the current form of government or any other standard. Anyway, calling United States one of the oldest countries in the world is about as defensible as calling it one of the newest countries in the world. I just don't see the data for it.

mariojv 5y ago

EU was a great decision. Do you mind sharing which country you picked, and how the transition was for your family? One option we are considering is starting our family in the US and moving to the EU slightly later in life, but before the kids would start school. Adoption and surrogacy are generally harder or take longer in the EU, although the processes are substantially the same for same sex and opposite sex married couples, at least in western Europe.

withinboredom 5y ago
We picked the Netherlands for a number of reasons: - high taxes that you actually see the output of. Also, higher taxes than the US means not paying US taxes due to tax treaties, though you still have to file them. - Dutch-American Friendship Treaty (DAFT) means you can move here and start a business with minimal investment. - Our son was 3 when we moved here. He speaks fluent Dutch now and is on his way to learning Spanish and German.

justin66 5y ago

> I got pretty darn good at sniffing failure. In 2018, I started getting those smells from the US itself. My family packed up and moved to the EU in 2018. I don’t regret it, not for a second. Was Russia fighting a land war in Europe just a little blip on the radar that has not yet caused you to question your "sniffing" ability?

mdp2021 5y ago
That "operation" was the one of the last of the events ranked in the scale of "unforseeable". They said it, said it, said it and did it. In national terms, there are 200-ish options, not "plenty of fish in the sea".

robocat 5y ago

> picking startups that would fail. I got pretty darn good at sniffing failure Picking failures is easy because the majority of start-ups fail. If you pick failures 50% of the time, and 90% of startups fail, then actually you are really good at picking successes.

withinboredom 5y ago
100% of the first 5-6 businesses I worked at failed. Only one did I stay at beyond the end and help with selling off the IP as a consultant, and given some IP as payment. There was no cash. But since then, 100% of the businesses I’ve worked at are still in operation today (another 5).