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It's also the same reasoning used by a Thanksgiving Turkey. The farmer has always come in and given the turkey food, so logically he will continue to do so. An
by GolfPopper 4y ago
It's also the same reasoning used by a Thanksgiving Turkey.
The farmer has always come in and given the turkey food, so logically he will continue to do so. And it is true. Until it isn't. But the cost of that one day when it isn't is very high for the turkey.
- jrumbut 4y agoWhat's the turkey supposed to do? It can either starve itself now or die with a full stomach later.
- epicureanideal 4y agoThere are some limitations to the metaphor but I think it illustrates the point.
- chii 4y agoit doesnt illustrate anything, because the turkey situation assumes that there's a higher power controlling the stock market.
- epicureanideal 4y agoI don’t think that interpretation of the metaphor is intended. Just that something good can happen many times and be followed unexpectedly and suddenly by something bad.
- chii 4y agoAnd that's why i said the analogy is not illustrative of anything - because you dont know the future at all, and there's no precedent for that bad future. You don't prepare for such a future at the cost of the current time. If you switched the turkey to a pet cat, would the analogy still make sense?