5 ms·

Every even modestly exponential curve has the same shape. https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=y+%3D+1.05%5Ex+from+1+to+100 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?

• shawnz 5y ago
  This time is different, every time See for example this nice video from Ben Felix: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jh9Gn58r9Fw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jh9Gn58r9Fw
  • AlchemistCamp 5y ago
    What do you like about it?
    • shawnz 5y ago
      I generally enjoy his evidence-based approach to investing and this video is particularly good at addressing common FUD about today's situation being unique compared to the past.
• grey-area 5y ago
  Exponential curves in real assets are not sustainable.
  • pl-94 5y ago
    The GDP is itself exponential. A growth of +2% a year is an example of an exponential curve. Sure there are "limits to growth" (see Meadows et al.) but it's not clear whether those limits are reached yet.
    • grey-area 5y ago
      GDP rising exponentially is also clearly unsustainable. We have IMO reached a paradigm shift in central bank policy after decades of low rates and low inflation. The recent past is not a good guide to the near future in markets.
      • adastra22 5y ago
        The entirety of human history since prehistoric times to the present gives evidence contrary to your claim. Human societies have experienced exponential growth since forever, with only occasional brief temporary setbacks. Even the Black Death is a blip on the exponential curve of economic progress.
        • krigath 5y ago
          In terms of population? Yes In terms of economic productivity per capita? No, not if you look at periods prior to the industrial revolution[1] [1] https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://web.stanford.edu/~klenow/Hansen%2520and%2520Prescott.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj0reSvss_3AhUIS_EDHT7sAOYQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3D5FpsU7XiXQETQemKIFV7 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https:/...
        • baq 5y ago
          Past performance is not a predictor of future results. If we continue to grow GDP (~energy consumption) at about 1%/y, we’ll boil oceans in 400 years. That’s what exponential growth means.
          • adastra22 5y ago
            Most of that GDP growth will not be on Earth in 400 years.
            • StireFarter 5y ago
              Hand-wavy predictions like this scare me - it suggests people don't understand space travel or the distances involved at all. Sure, if you think of the Earth as a game of SimCity plus Kerbal Space Program, these discussions about exponential growth are interesting. However, they miss the part where the intervening 30-100 years become literal hell on Earth while space travel ramps up.
              • adastra22 5y ago
    • ArnoVW 5y ago
      Unless we find a way to 'produce' (the P in GDP) without increasing entropy by digging up stuff (oil, metals, whatever) and then releasing them into our ecosystem once we're done with them, those limits seem to be pretty close though. That's not just me thinking that. That's the Club of Rome, in the 70's. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth Their conclusion at the time: "the most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity"
      • baq 5y ago
        And the most sobering thing - we’re still on track for the base case…
      • pfortuny 5y ago
        As long as the Sun shines on (and this is essenty “for ever”), there is an increasing accumulation of energy in the planet: that is where the possibility of exponential “growth” comes.
        • pl-94 4y ago
          Your point is invalid because it would require an exponential growth of the sun power (the derivative of an exponential is an exponential). While the sun power is exponential around a billion years, it is a constant over a year. So you would reach at most a linear GDP growth.
        • Valakas_ 5y ago
          Not so fast. Entropy is decreasing. There might be more energy, but useless energy. Energy low enough, spread out enough or with too little temperature differential that you can't do much or anything with it. The Earth is getting solar energy sure. But it also emits energy. And a lot of what stays here is just useless heat.
      • afpx 5y ago
        A lot of the production and growth in production is in services. The global economy adds 50M+ new middle class incomes each year.
    • imtringued 5y ago
      The population isn't growing exponentially anymore and most productivity gains per capita are linear. It's only the big breakthroughs that made it exponential by getting rid of old professions and replacing them with new ones.
• darawk 5y ago
  That's exactly why the plot is in log scale. The point is that this period looks unusual despite being rendered in log scale.
• fny 5y ago
  We just had a super exponential rise in equity prices for what its worth. Hence the bubble.