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Perhaps they should join the Union. I'm sure they'd qualify after some changes.
by vegai_ 4y ago
Perhaps they should join the Union. I'm sure they'd qualify after some changes.
- secondcoming 4y agoLooking at what's happening with Germany I suspect the EU would dearly love the UK back involved. It's quite noticable that the doom-porn regarding Brexit has now died down. It's gone from 'the shelves are empty' to 'person's passport was rejected'.
- mrtksn 4y agoYes, EU and UK got a deal so it's all cool now, therefore no empty shelves - just increased bureaucracy and red tape in trade. However, UK claims that the deal they signed is a shitty deal and they are expected to break it. Things can start moving again.
- tinktank 4y agoheh.
- jollybean 4y agoWhy would they, join an economic union that has a political layers with negative benefits? Better to partner with Norway, Switzerland, to develop some kind of meaningful coherence on trade issues with the EU and especially focus 1) on the US, the current superpower where there's obviously deep resonance 2) and especially Asia where all of the growth is, particularly India, Singapore and Hong Kong where UK has deep ties. Joining EU makes sense for Ukraine and even Serbia, not necessarily others.
- jka 4y agoYou can see the EU a little bit like a microservice mesh standard; once your microservice is integrated, data flows, resource sharing, statistics/observability, and so on become easier in various ways, although you may have to adapt to common standards. In legal and practical terms, the UK is still currently strongly compatible with the EU, despite Brexit. Another way to look at the situation: the UK is currently in an early fork stage of the codebase, and remains more-or-less compatible. The biggest opportunity from Brexit -- which, strangely, may not only be available to the UK, but also to keen observers within the EU -- is the chance to introduce some local code changes without all the usual code review stages and interface negotiations. Will everything that the UK does as a result create improvements? No: plenty of these attempted changes will fail -- some badly -- and hopefully we'll all learn from those mistakes. But there will certainly also be policy and procedural changes that result in unquestionable improvements that are re-usable elsewhere. (disclaimer/context: I believe that Brexit was a mistake in economic and political terms, but that the UK could eventually rejoin the EU if-and/or-when the upsides are clearer to people, and that it's an opportunity to learn)
- not2b 4y agoAlternatively, parts of the UK could break off and rejoin the EU (e.g. Scotland). I can't predict whether this will happen or not.
- pavlov 4y agoAlso the unification of Ireland might be closer than ever. Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the IRA, won elections in North Ireland yesterday: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/northern-ireland-poised-watershed-election-result-counting-begins-2022-05-06/ https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/northern-ireland-poised-wat... I don't pretend to be an expert on Irish politics. It's unclear to me whether the Republic really even wants North Ireland given its lackluster economy. Maybe it's easier to have London keep sending billions there.
- VictorPath 4y agoSinn Féin is a political party over a century old, and in 1918 won an all-Ireland election, 73 of 105 seats, on its platform to leave the UK. That the mainstream media refers to Sinn Féin as the political wing of the IRA tells little about them but a lot about the media and other things. Sinn Féin is also tied for largest party at Leinster House in the 26 counties. Instructive is https://bbc.co.uk https://bbc.co.uk . You can barely find news of this, it is way down the page. Superhero movies, Miami Grand Prix. dating apps, pilota, carbon bicycles etc. take precedence. England doesn't care, other than the loose ends remaining snagged Brexit somewhat.
- disgruntledphd2 4y agoSigh. This is manifestly incorrect. The party that campaigns as Sinn Fein in Ireland now has very very little to do with the Sinn Fein that won the elections in 1918. That Original Sinn Fein splintered into Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, a bunch of random socialist parties, and eventually the workers party which merged with Labour 30+ years ago. The Sinn Fein that did really well in the NI assembly elections yesterday is Provisional Sinn Fein, which is an outgrowth of the civil rights movement for Catholics that started in the 1960s. This Sinn Fein was the political wing of the Provisional IRA, an armed group which engaged in violence to bring about a united Ireland. So, yes they are IRA associated (though the pIRA haven't engaged in political violence since about 1997).
- dijit 4y ago> India, Singapore and Hong Kong where UK has deep ties. Deep ties is a warm fuzzy term to describe ex-colonies. Nearly up there with “commonwealth”. I think your characterisation of the EU is extremely poor, no political union as massive as the EU gets away without issue, you can argue that there are too many to even bear, but it’s absurd to think the British can make a better economic Union, we have 500 years of history to look back on and it proves that we do not know what we’re doing and we do not learn from our mistakes.
- avianlyric 4y ago> it’s absurd to think the British can make a better economic Union The great irony being that the U.K. poured a huge amount of effort into making the EU and ECHR a reality, so as help ensure there wouldn’t be another war in Europe. So in many ways the U.K. has already proven it can’t come up with something better than the EU.
- jollybean 4y agoThe ECHR has nothing to do with whether or not there would be a war in Europe. The EEC/EU possibly does, but it's doubtful if the political apparatus of the EU has anything to do with it, but rather measures of economic integration, which would have likely happened even without an EEC. The resulting conclusion 'can't come up with something better than the EU' doesn't follow from the original statement, moreover, it wouldn't be hard at all to come up with something 'better' than the EU: A trade and customs union with relatively free movement (but not fully) would be 'better' than the EU, especially because it would likely include Turkey, and possibly already Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia. A 'Decentralized European Bank' which allowed for national currencies but under tight regulatory oversight and exchange rules, obviously a more progressive concept that could only be enabled by tech, would be better than the ECB, which is a giant drag on periphery economies.
- avianlyric 4y agoI guess at this point our issue is that the EU represents a great many different forms of international integration, from economic, to political, covering immigration, economic policy, monetary policy, policing, civil rights, food policy etc etc The EU is assumed so many responsibilities over time that it’s difficult to talk about the EU as whole in a meaningful sense. You need to break down each aspect of integration that’s been built around it, as assess each policy on its own merits. When you start doing that, it quickly becomes apparent that some aspects of the EU work incredibly well, but other aspects have failed, sometimes catastrophically. Personally I think the EU has been a rather grand, if lumpy, success so far, and I’m keen to see it continue growing. With it the merging of national identities across the EU into single European identity, with many nuanced sub-cultures. > A trade and customs union with relatively free movement (but not fully) would be 'better' than the EU On specific point. The EU has got a lot of flak in the UK for freedom of movement, usually focused on the stereotypical “Polish plumber”. It worth mentioning this was a self-inflicted pain by the UK. The EU gave all existing countries the right to limit immigration from the new joined eastern states, with 5 year ramp up period toward full freedom of movement. The UK opt-ed out, and decided for full freedom of movement from day 0, most other EU countries limited freedom of movement to prevent large economic migration. So all the limits on immigration the EU supposedly prevented the UK from implementing, were an completely legal option for the UK, it deliberately decided not to exercise them. Further proof that the EU has never prevented the UK from reducing immigration, is the fact that net immigration has fallen since Brexit.
- ss108 4y agowhoosh?
- not2b 4y agoNorway is in the European Economic Area, closely tied to the EU. Switzerland isn't an EU member but is in the single market. That means both Norway and Switzerland are loosely attached to the EU bloc and play by most of the EU rules. They aren't interested in tearing up those relations to make a separate deal with Brexiters.
- Longhanks 4y agoSwitzerland and Norway are not much closer to or farther from the EU than the UK. What works for them can also work for the UK. The UK also plays by most of the EU rules (more than actual members such as Poland or Hungary if you ask me). Switzerland is very interested in keeping relations with the UK at a high level and is actively negotiating since Brexit. The EU is not Europe and is definitely lacking in some aspects that might countries want to reconsider a membership.
- not2b 4y agoNorway is in the European Economic Area, which allows for free movement of people, which is exactly the part that Brexiters hated the most. They aren't going to give that up. Switzerland is in the European Free Trade Association and part of the Schengen area, again allowing for free movement of people. Sure, they might sign deals to maintain trade with the UK, but won't accept any deal that would harm their ability to trade with the (much bigger and wealthier) EU.
- Longhanks 4y agoAre you implying the EU would try to forbid Switzerland and Britain from forming deals? Because the EU has literally zero say in that. This mindset of the EU trying to establish an implicit rule over Europe is the exact reason why it is so poorly regarded in Switzerland.
- ben_w 4y agoI think your question is “wet pavements cause rain” level of misinterpretation of what @not2b wrote. (I have no idea if what @not2b wrote is correct, but the causality in their comment is the exact opposite direction of what you’re asking is implied).
- gls2ro 4y agoI am not 100% sure but does not Norway and Switzerland adhere de facto to the single market rules?
- not2b 4y agoYes, mostly. They aren't going to tear up their relations with the EU to go with the UK.
- RC_ITR 4y agoPlus, let's be real Norway is the world's largest petro-state that's not also a theocracy and Switzerland is the world's largest 'offshore' banking state. They are not part of the EU because very obvious parts of their economy are 'we got lucky and don't want to share that luck.' Why would they then want to share that luck with the UK?
- masklinn 4y ago> I am not 100% sure but does not Norway and Switzerland adhere de facto to the single market rules? Surely it's de jure? As both are single market members. Norway through the EEA, and Switzerland through a series of bilateral agreements.
- NovemberWhiskey 4y agoThis was the pre-Brexit fantasy scenario. Despite the UK exiting from the EU, and therefore no longer benefiting from its trade agreements effective 1st January 2021, from your list of countries the UK has only successfully ratified trade agreements with Switzerland and Singapore. There is also a provisional agreement with Norway. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-agreements-with-non-eu-countries https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-agreements-with-non-eu-...
- blibble 4y agoI suggest you look at the EU list the EU still hasn't ratified the Canada deal from 2017 in that time the UK managed to exit the EU, negotiate and ratify the Canada deal
- dijit 4y agoThe Canada trade deal is a "continuation" deal (as described by the UK Govt in a link I will post at the end of this comment) which basically sets terms to be the same as the EU's currently existing deal before free trade: IE, it's not free trade (though; not that you claimed it was). I believe it's rather disingenuous to describe a continuation deal as a "deal" since essentially it's... a continuation. But it's good that we have them. FWIW: Negotiations are underway right now between Canada and the UK though, from the UK Governments own website: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-launches-negotiations-with-canada-on-a-new-modernised-trade-deal https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-launches-negotiations-...
- blibble 4y agoyet somehow the UK managed to get the deal ratified, but the EU hasn't been able to
- dijit 4y agothe... same deal the EU currently has? Yes, that's ratified. Both with the EU and the UK. Because that's what the "continuance" was. Canada _does_ have a trade deal with the EU, there's a more comprehensive Free-Trade (IE; not just a Trade agreement like the UK's) one that's on the table since 2016 but is actually already in active use, despite not being officially ratified. But that's different to the one that the UK has "continued".
- systemvoltage 4y agoThere is so much tension between Germany/France vs. the rest of the EU. If you're a struggling small nation in the shadow of Russia, membership in EU is great.
- ralfn 4y agoSwitzerland and Norway are not free to make trade deals by themselves. They too opted to be part of the economic block even though they aren't full member states. Going for the type of deal these countries have with the EU would have been very smart. You still get to have your borders, you are not paying in, etc. But trade deals are approved by the whole bloc. If you don't want that then you are less integrated with the European economy than Turkey. Honestly, if you aren't aware of the different layers of collaboration within Europe (with an EU member state being the highest form), you really shouldn't pretend to be able to say anything meaningful about it. This is so far removed from reality, i have to ask: which Murdoch outlet has been misinforming you?
- jollybean 4y agoI worked for the European Investment Fund (part of European Investment Bank Group in Luxembourg) I know a thing or two about 'The layers of EU government and trade', thanks very much. Your comments about 'getting the benefits of an EU deal' are a bit glib when not contemplating the innumerable other costs and constraints of such a deal. Moreover - as you hint they are 'economic benefits' for which the political layer of the EU are mostly not necessary. An evolved EEC (with a different kind of ECJ, different kind of Euro) would be much better for European nations than the EU - and everyone including Serbia, Ukraine, Georgia, probably even Turkey could be part of it.
- blibble 4y agoNorway is an EFTA state, which makes its own free trade deals (and has more than the EU)
- _Microft 4y agoSure, why not - as long as they do not ask for special treatment?
- masklinn 4y ago> as long as they do not ask for special treatment? They certainly could ask. They wouldn't get it because at this point they have negative leverage and I'd assume Brussels is at best mildly irritated by Downing Street.
- _Microft 4y agoThe implied joke was that this would have been another advantage that they squandered with Brexit because they did get special treatment before leaving.