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If you currently work for a tech company that runs on VC cash, the time to look for an established profitable enterprise to work for is yesterday. Raising rate

If you currently work for a tech company that runs on VC cash, the time to look for an established profitable enterprise to work for is yesterday. Raising rates will likely massacre debt dependent companies.

AnimalMuppet 5y ago
Is VC cash "debt dependent", though? My impression is that it is not.
- whoisburbansky 5y ago
  In the sense that public market stock valuations are debt-dependent, because cheaper debt increases future earning potential by making it cheaper to finance operations, acquisitions, expansions. Without the expectation of high public valuations, VC have less incentive to pump cash into early-stage companies. I think that's the rationale?
kasey_junk 5y ago
"established profitable enterprise" is not the opposite of "debt dependent" and "company that runs on VC cash" is not synonymous with it. What you really want to be concerned about are enterprises, large or small, established or starting out, that are impacted by first order effects of interest rates. The obvious examples are the mortgage and real estate industries. Second order effects are going to be harder to suss out but companies that have large lag times between production of a product and receipt of cash for that product will be adversely impacted. Companies with costs that are hard to restructure are also problematic because (in the US) getting rid of people can be much easier than getting rid of long term leases or debt in raising rate environments. That is to say, in a raising interest rate environment lots of other items top the list of problematic before VC funding. In fact, it _may_ lead to companies getting more freedom as the VC funds needn't return as much as they do in the current rate environment. As always, keep enough money on hand to ride out a job search, keep your skills sharp and your professional network built is about all that you can say you should do to prepare for changing macroeconomic regimes.

AnimalMuppet 5y ago

Is VC cash "debt dependent", though? My impression is that it is not.

whoisburbansky 5y ago
In the sense that public market stock valuations are debt-dependent, because cheaper debt increases future earning potential by making it cheaper to finance operations, acquisitions, expansions. Without the expectation of high public valuations, VC have less incentive to pump cash into early-stage companies. I think that's the rationale?

kasey_junk 5y ago

"established profitable enterprise" is not the opposite of "debt dependent" and "company that runs on VC cash" is not synonymous with it. What you really want to be concerned about are enterprises, large or small, established or starting out, that are impacted by first order effects of interest rates. The obvious examples are the mortgage and real estate industries. Second order effects are going to be harder to suss out but companies that have large lag times between production of a product and receipt of cash for that product will be adversely impacted. Companies with costs that are hard to restructure are also problematic because (in the US) getting rid of people can be much easier than getting rid of long term leases or debt in raising rate environments. That is to say, in a raising interest rate environment lots of other items top the list of problematic before VC funding. In fact, it _may_ lead to companies getting more freedom as the VC funds needn't return as much as they do in the current rate environment. As always, keep enough money on hand to ride out a job search, keep your skills sharp and your professional network built is about all that you can say you should do to prepare for changing macroeconomic regimes.