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Great example. I’d add that Facebook had the luxury of buying the competition. They even used to own a fairly popular mobile VPN provider just for the purpose

by pavlov 5y ago

Great example. I’d add that Facebook had the luxury of buying the competition. They even used to own a fairly popular mobile VPN provider just for the purpose of collecting data about which apps and services are on the rise. But that was five years ago. Now every move by Meta is under intense scrutiny by three regulators who love to assert their power: USA, EU and UK. Post-Brexit, the UK’s antitrust regulator wants to demonstrate its new independence. They blocked Facebook’s acquisition of Giphy even though the latter has no operations in Britain, on the theory that Giphy might eventually sell ads to UK businesses and thus become a competitor to Meta. Meta isn’t eager to risk another of these multi-year acquisition drama episodes. They’re all in on decades-long metaverse platform building, with organic growth at Instagram and WhatsApp hopefully tiding over until Zuck’s dream AR devices become feasible.

lumost 5y ago
I don't understand what meta is building. The tech to even conceive of building a metaverse is at least 10 years away. Not only do you need photorealistic graphics (just becoming feasible) but you need these graphics in 8k, on a mobile device with long battery life. The hardware to support this will run 20 pounds with a 500+ watt power draw. Beyond that, you need to ability for everyone to interact seamlessly over the internet in “fun” spaces that they enjoy hanging out in. This means next generation immersive haptics etc. I don't see much excitement for haptica in the wild. Then there is a whole crazy idea that users should be able to bring stuff across meracerse games/worlds and have it just work... I see this ending in 3-5 years with a major AAA studio making a billion dollar met averse experience that flops.
- pavlov 5y ago
  > "The tech to even conceive of building a metaverse is at least 10 years away." Zuck knows this. He's spending $10-15 billion per year on this tech with the goal of having a compelling consumer experience ready in 2030 — still optimistic, but not outrageously so. I'm not sure if being early will work for Meta. One could look at Symbian which was very early in the smartphone market, with major investments into a power-efficient C++ based OS and GUI API already in 1996. They got app-capable devices with relatively good graphics and resistive touchscreens in the market early, but all that R&D then became a boat anchor when the iPhone happened and Symbian's embedded-style paradigm was immediately obsolete.
  - lumost 5y ago
    I suppose this is the inevitable evolution of a large tech firm. At some point the only way to drive further growth is with fundamental research, but fundamental research has a mixed track record when it comes to value capture. Part of my concern is that it's not clear that we even have enough tech to sensibly spend money on. Is the money going to go into BCI interfaces? Haptics? VR? Software? All of the above? Or just big marketing campaigns promising the metaverse?
  - johannes1234321 5y ago
    It is not only about building. It is also having eyes open and trying to buy anything they can (sellers willing to sell and anti-trust authorities agreeing). "Metaverse" is so imprecise so that whatever scheme in the end works, will be retrofitted to be Metaverse as envisioned from the beginning.
- edmundsauto 5y ago
  > Not only do you need photorealistic graphics (just becoming feasible) but you need these graphics in 8k Maybe? I mean, it's still possible to have expressive representations at lower fidelity. Cartoon characters are way more expressive (and fun!) than actors in movies.
ironlake 5y ago
> Now every move by Meta is under intense scrutiny by three regulators who love to assert their power: USA, EU and UK. Facebook has proven they need more regulation, not less. Brexit could not have happened without Zuckerberg's gormless leadership. He built a machine for influencing populations and he mindlessly loans it out to authoritarianism while he's off slaughtering goats in his back yard, pretending he's a hunter.

by pavlov 5y ago

lumost 5y ago

I don't understand what meta is building. The tech to even conceive of building a metaverse is at least 10 years away. Not only do you need photorealistic graphics (just becoming feasible) but you need these graphics in 8k, on a mobile device with long battery life. The hardware to support this will run 20 pounds with a 500+ watt power draw. Beyond that, you need to ability for everyone to interact seamlessly over the internet in “fun” spaces that they enjoy hanging out in. This means next generation immersive haptics etc. I don't see much excitement for haptica in the wild. Then there is a whole crazy idea that users should be able to bring stuff across meracerse games/worlds and have it just work... I see this ending in 3-5 years with a major AAA studio making a billion dollar met averse experience that flops.

pavlov 5y ago
> "The tech to even conceive of building a metaverse is at least 10 years away." Zuck knows this. He's spending $10-15 billion per year on this tech with the goal of having a compelling consumer experience ready in 2030 — still optimistic, but not outrageously so. I'm not sure if being early will work for Meta. One could look at Symbian which was very early in the smartphone market, with major investments into a power-efficient C++ based OS and GUI API already in 1996. They got app-capable devices with relatively good graphics and resistive touchscreens in the market early, but all that R&D then became a boat anchor when the iPhone happened and Symbian's embedded-style paradigm was immediately obsolete.
- lumost 5y ago
  I suppose this is the inevitable evolution of a large tech firm. At some point the only way to drive further growth is with fundamental research, but fundamental research has a mixed track record when it comes to value capture. Part of my concern is that it's not clear that we even have enough tech to sensibly spend money on. Is the money going to go into BCI interfaces? Haptics? VR? Software? All of the above? Or just big marketing campaigns promising the metaverse?
- johannes1234321 5y ago
  It is not only about building. It is also having eyes open and trying to buy anything they can (sellers willing to sell and anti-trust authorities agreeing). "Metaverse" is so imprecise so that whatever scheme in the end works, will be retrofitted to be Metaverse as envisioned from the beginning.
edmundsauto 5y ago
> Not only do you need photorealistic graphics (just becoming feasible) but you need these graphics in 8k Maybe? I mean, it's still possible to have expressive representations at lower fidelity. Cartoon characters are way more expressive (and fun!) than actors in movies.

ironlake 5y ago

> Now every move by Meta is under intense scrutiny by three regulators who love to assert their power: USA, EU and UK. Facebook has proven they need more regulation, not less. Brexit could not have happened without Zuckerberg's gormless leadership. He built a machine for influencing populations and he mindlessly loans it out to authoritarianism while he's off slaughtering goats in his back yard, pretending he's a hunter.