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"If a sponsor wants contestants to throw a ping-pong ball through a hole in a watermelon, he’ll go outside with his employees and re-create it himself, recordin
by dr_orpheus 4y ago
"If a sponsor wants contestants to throw a ping-pong ball through a hole in a watermelon, he’ll go outside with his employees and re-create it himself, recording the results."
Kind of funny that he ends up doing some "market research" himself. I also wonder what this is like for the employees. If you really want a good statistical average to base it off of how much time do they spend doing it? Is is "yay, we get to have recess and go do some silly activity in the middle of the day" or "come on boss, I've been throwing this ping pong ball at a watermelon for 9 hours, can I go home yet?"
- lordnacho 4y agoPlus the employee will get better and better at it, biasing the insurance towards the conservative side.
- Nextgrid 4y agoIf the activity is easy/cheap to recreate it's probably good to assume that advantage players will also do the same practice to improve their odds.
- myself248 4y agoWell that's also something you want to model. You don't just track the numbers you achieve all day, you track the first minute, the next 29 minutes, the next 7 1/2 hours, and see how it changes. Then that tells you whether someone at home who knows they're gonna be throwing pingpong balls into watermelons tomorrow, and does some practicing today, can measurably improve their chances. So now you price the insurance differently depending on whether the challenge is announced to the contestants in advance, or if it's a surprise when they arrive at the event. How differently? You now have data for that.