7 ms·

> All this is beside the point; the instructions invite the subject to produce a sequence that they think will convince people it was produced by a roll of dice

> All this is beside the point; the instructions invite the subject to produce a sequence that they think will convince people it was produced by a roll of dice. But there is no sequence that SHOULD have that power to convince. If you genuinely believe that, we can easily set up a sequence of bets where you will win infinite amounts of money from me. But of course, you don't genuinely believe that, so you aren't interested in making bets around your supposed "beliefs".

denton-scratch 5y ago
I guess my "supposed" beliefs must be the beliefs you suppose I have. Whatever. If you're offering me a bet, and you can easily set it up, then what bet are you proposing? You haven't been very specific. I'm no Turf Accountant[0], but I can spot a three-card-trick when I see one. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Turf_accountant https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Turf_accountant
- baobabKoodaa 5y ago
  Fine. You made this statement: > the instructions invite the subject to produce a sequence that they think will convince people it was produced by a roll of dice. But there is no sequence that SHOULD have that power to convince. Let's gather a random sample of people 20 people. I will produce 10 manually generated sequences of dice rolls and 10 actual dice roll sequences. The sequences are added to a list and the list is shuffled. We will present each person with a sequence from the list (sampling without replacement), and the person should guess whether the sequence was manually generated or produced with a dice roll. For each person who correctly identifies a manual sequence as a manual sequence, I will pay you $1. For each person who mis-identifies a manual sequence as an actual dice-roll sequence, you will pay me $1000. As you said, you believe no sequence should have the power to convince a person of such a thing, you will obviously never have to actually pay me $1000, you would just collect 20 x $1 from me. I'd be happy to continue this up to infinity in batches of 20, so you will eventually get infinite dollars from me. I will need escrow.
  - a1369209993 5y ago
    > For each person who correctly identifies a []manual sequence[] as a manual sequence, I will pay you $1. For each person who mis-identifies a []manual sequence[] as an actual dice-roll sequence, you will pay me $1000. Payment only happens for the manual sequences here. > you would just collect 20 x $1 from me. So they'd only get 10 x $1 per batch.
  - denton-scratch 5y ago
    No bet! You promised me "infinite amounts of money", I only stand to win 20 bucks. Also, you have specified that these are 20 random people; so I guess I don't get to brief them in advance that they MUST say manual each time. So you have replaced me, the bettor, with a panel of 20 people whose average IQ is 100, and who don't have my interests at heart. Why would I take that bet? If my random panel say manual each time, you stand to lose. But as I say, I don't bet often. Only once a year, only on gee-gees, and only as much as I'm willing to lose (because I always lose).
    - baobabKoodaa 5y ago
      Look, you're merely pretending to disagree. You're pretending to believe something akin to "it's impossible to craft a sequence of numbers that convinces observes of its randomness". But you don't actually believe this [or whatever minor variation of that statement that you'd find agreeable in rhetoric]. If you did believe it, you would find a wager that we could do to settle this disagreement. But no such wager can possibly be formulated, because you don't actually believe what you pretend to believe.
      - denton-scratch 5y ago
        It's not about my beliefs, except my belief that the die is fair. I made a statement about a simple bet, using a fair 20-sided die, on the outcome of the 8th roll after the die has just come up 20 seven times. I'll take the bet that it doesn't come up 20 on the 8th roll. This scenario with 20 random people and 10 sequences appears to be a different scenario. I'm not sure how the odds work in that scenario, and I don't fancy that bet. That's all.

denton-scratch 5y ago

I guess my "supposed" beliefs must be the beliefs you suppose I have. Whatever. If you're offering me a bet, and you can easily set it up, then what bet are you proposing? You haven't been very specific. I'm no Turf Accountant[0], but I can spot a three-card-trick when I see one. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Turf_accountant https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Turf_accountant

baobabKoodaa 5y ago
Fine. You made this statement: > the instructions invite the subject to produce a sequence that they think will convince people it was produced by a roll of dice. But there is no sequence that SHOULD have that power to convince. Let's gather a random sample of people 20 people. I will produce 10 manually generated sequences of dice rolls and 10 actual dice roll sequences. The sequences are added to a list and the list is shuffled. We will present each person with a sequence from the list (sampling without replacement), and the person should guess whether the sequence was manually generated or produced with a dice roll. For each person who correctly identifies a manual sequence as a manual sequence, I will pay you $1. For each person who mis-identifies a manual sequence as an actual dice-roll sequence, you will pay me $1000. As you said, you believe no sequence should have the power to convince a person of such a thing, you will obviously never have to actually pay me $1000, you would just collect 20 x $1 from me. I'd be happy to continue this up to infinity in batches of 20, so you will eventually get infinite dollars from me. I will need escrow.
- a1369209993 5y ago
  > For each person who correctly identifies a []manual sequence[] as a manual sequence, I will pay you $1. For each person who mis-identifies a []manual sequence[] as an actual dice-roll sequence, you will pay me $1000. Payment only happens for the manual sequences here. > you would just collect 20 x $1 from me. So they'd only get 10 x $1 per batch.
- denton-scratch 5y ago
  No bet! You promised me "infinite amounts of money", I only stand to win 20 bucks. Also, you have specified that these are 20 random people; so I guess I don't get to brief them in advance that they MUST say manual each time. So you have replaced me, the bettor, with a panel of 20 people whose average IQ is 100, and who don't have my interests at heart. Why would I take that bet? If my random panel say manual each time, you stand to lose. But as I say, I don't bet often. Only once a year, only on gee-gees, and only as much as I'm willing to lose (because I always lose).
  - baobabKoodaa 5y ago
    Look, you're merely pretending to disagree. You're pretending to believe something akin to "it's impossible to craft a sequence of numbers that convinces observes of its randomness". But you don't actually believe this [or whatever minor variation of that statement that you'd find agreeable in rhetoric]. If you did believe it, you would find a wager that we could do to settle this disagreement. But no such wager can possibly be formulated, because you don't actually believe what you pretend to believe.
    - denton-scratch 5y ago
      It's not about my beliefs, except my belief that the die is fair. I made a statement about a simple bet, using a fair 20-sided die, on the outcome of the 8th roll after the die has just come up 20 seven times. I'll take the bet that it doesn't come up 20 on the 8th roll. This scenario with 20 random people and 10 sequences appears to be a different scenario. I'm not sure how the odds work in that scenario, and I don't fancy that bet. That's all.