6 ms·

It would be incredibly stupid to take the bet, as it's way more likely that the sequence was not produced by a fair die than that it was (i.e. the dice is rigge

by dtech 4y ago

It would be incredibly stupid to take the bet, as it's way more likely that the sequence was not produced by a fair die than that it was (i.e. the dice is rigged in the example) Just because it's impossible to know for certain, doesn't mean you can't make a prediction with very high chance of being correct.

denton-scratch 4y ago
I'm not really a gambling man, but I'd expect a crooked 20-sided die to produce a biased sequence, not a running straight. I don't know if it's possible to make a die that always rolls the same, and I'd expect any such die to fail a superficial inspection (all sides but one bulge; one side is larger than the others; the die has a weird magnetic field; the die is heavily weighted on one side). So I'd still expect a running straight to be rare, even with a crooked die. Of course, if I watched the die produce 7 20s in a row, and was then asked to bet on the next roll NOT being 20, I'd be stupid to assume the die was fair without inspecting it. All this is beside the point; the instructions invite the subject to produce a sequence that they think will convince people it was produced by a roll of dice. But there is no sequence that SHOULD have that power to convince.
- baobabKoodaa 4y ago
  > All this is beside the point; the instructions invite the subject to produce a sequence that they think will convince people it was produced by a roll of dice. But there is no sequence that SHOULD have that power to convince. If you genuinely believe that, we can easily set up a sequence of bets where you will win infinite amounts of money from me. But of course, you don't genuinely believe that, so you aren't interested in making bets around your supposed "beliefs".
  - denton-scratch 4y ago
    I guess my "supposed" beliefs must be the beliefs you suppose I have. Whatever. If you're offering me a bet, and you can easily set it up, then what bet are you proposing? You haven't been very specific. I'm no Turf Accountant[0], but I can spot a three-card-trick when I see one. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Turf_accountant https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Turf_accountant
    - baobabKoodaa 4y ago
      Fine. You made this statement: > the instructions invite the subject to produce a sequence that they think will convince people it was produced by a roll of dice. But there is no sequence that SHOULD have that power to convince. Let's gather a random sample of people 20 people. I will produce 10 manually generated sequences of dice rolls and 10 actual dice roll sequences. The sequences are added to a list and the list is shuffled. We will present each person with a sequence from the list (sampling without replacement), and the person should guess whether the sequence was manually generated or produced with a dice roll. For each person who correctly identifies a manual sequence as a manual sequence, I will pay you $1. For each person who mis-identifies a manual sequence as an actual dice-roll sequence, you will pay me $1000. As you said, you believe no sequence should have the power to convince a person of such a thing, you will obviously never have to actually pay me $1000, you would just collect 20 x $1 from me. I'd be happy to continue this up to infinity in batches of 20, so you will eventually get infinite dollars from me. I will need escrow.
      - a1369209993 4y ago
        > For each person who correctly identifies a []manual sequence[] as a manual sequence, I will pay you $1. For each person who mis-identifies a []manual sequence[] as an actual dice-roll sequence, you will pay me $1000. Payment only happens for the manual sequences here. > you would just collect 20 x $1 from me. So they'd only get 10 x $1 per batch.
      - denton-scratch 4y ago
        No bet! You promised me "infinite amounts of money", I only stand to win 20 bucks. Also, you have specified that these are 20 random people; so I guess I don't get to brief them in advance that they MUST say manual each time. So you have replaced me, the bettor, with a panel of 20 people whose average IQ is 100, and who don't have my interests at heart. Why would I take that bet? If my random panel say manual each time, you stand to lose. But as I say, I don't bet often. Only once a year, only on gee-gees, and only as much as I'm willing to lose (because I always lose).
- ByteJockey 4y ago
  > I don't know if it's possible to make a die that always rolls the same The easiest way would be to put the same number on every side, which would probably fail a superficial human inspection (but might pass a surprising number of machine inspections).
  - denton-scratch 4y ago
    Hadn't thought of that!

by dtech 4y ago

denton-scratch 4y ago

I'm not really a gambling man, but I'd expect a crooked 20-sided die to produce a biased sequence, not a running straight. I don't know if it's possible to make a die that always rolls the same, and I'd expect any such die to fail a superficial inspection (all sides but one bulge; one side is larger than the others; the die has a weird magnetic field; the die is heavily weighted on one side). So I'd still expect a running straight to be rare, even with a crooked die. Of course, if I watched the die produce 7 20s in a row, and was then asked to bet on the next roll NOT being 20, I'd be stupid to assume the die was fair without inspecting it. All this is beside the point; the instructions invite the subject to produce a sequence that they think will convince people it was produced by a roll of dice. But there is no sequence that SHOULD have that power to convince.

baobabKoodaa 4y ago
> All this is beside the point; the instructions invite the subject to produce a sequence that they think will convince people it was produced by a roll of dice. But there is no sequence that SHOULD have that power to convince. If you genuinely believe that, we can easily set up a sequence of bets where you will win infinite amounts of money from me. But of course, you don't genuinely believe that, so you aren't interested in making bets around your supposed "beliefs".
- denton-scratch 4y ago
  I guess my "supposed" beliefs must be the beliefs you suppose I have. Whatever. If you're offering me a bet, and you can easily set it up, then what bet are you proposing? You haven't been very specific. I'm no Turf Accountant[0], but I can spot a three-card-trick when I see one. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Turf_accountant https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Turf_accountant
  - baobabKoodaa 4y ago
    Fine. You made this statement: > the instructions invite the subject to produce a sequence that they think will convince people it was produced by a roll of dice. But there is no sequence that SHOULD have that power to convince. Let's gather a random sample of people 20 people. I will produce 10 manually generated sequences of dice rolls and 10 actual dice roll sequences. The sequences are added to a list and the list is shuffled. We will present each person with a sequence from the list (sampling without replacement), and the person should guess whether the sequence was manually generated or produced with a dice roll. For each person who correctly identifies a manual sequence as a manual sequence, I will pay you $1. For each person who mis-identifies a manual sequence as an actual dice-roll sequence, you will pay me $1000. As you said, you believe no sequence should have the power to convince a person of such a thing, you will obviously never have to actually pay me $1000, you would just collect 20 x $1 from me. I'd be happy to continue this up to infinity in batches of 20, so you will eventually get infinite dollars from me. I will need escrow.
    - a1369209993 4y ago
      > For each person who correctly identifies a []manual sequence[] as a manual sequence, I will pay you $1. For each person who mis-identifies a []manual sequence[] as an actual dice-roll sequence, you will pay me $1000. Payment only happens for the manual sequences here. > you would just collect 20 x $1 from me. So they'd only get 10 x $1 per batch.
    - denton-scratch 4y ago
      No bet! You promised me "infinite amounts of money", I only stand to win 20 bucks. Also, you have specified that these are 20 random people; so I guess I don't get to brief them in advance that they MUST say manual each time. So you have replaced me, the bettor, with a panel of 20 people whose average IQ is 100, and who don't have my interests at heart. Why would I take that bet? If my random panel say manual each time, you stand to lose. But as I say, I don't bet often. Only once a year, only on gee-gees, and only as much as I'm willing to lose (because I always lose).
ByteJockey 4y ago
> I don't know if it's possible to make a die that always rolls the same The easiest way would be to put the same number on every side, which would probably fail a superficial human inspection (but might pass a surprising number of machine inspections).
- denton-scratch 4y ago
  Hadn't thought of that!