3 ms·
It only matters to the extent that many existing systems are built on the assumption that the economy grows over time... e.g. taking on a 30y mortgage. If envir
by adam_arthur 5y ago
It only matters to the extent that many existing systems are built on the assumption that the economy grows over time... e.g. taking on a 30y mortgage. If environment becomes deflationary, then it becomes a deathtrap.
I think nominal GDP targeting is pretty bad policy though. Deflation can be a great thing for people, if its focused in the right areas.
e.g. imagine population is cut in half overnight... suddenly housing becomes very cheap and affordable, even in previously desirable areas. Of course, need to deal with all the ramifications and second order effects of that (lots of financial instruments would implode as their inflationary baseline assumptions unravel).
Debt instruments of all kind become problematic with deflation. At least in their current form.
Fortunately the US could toggle on population growth on a whim through changes in immigration policy
- imtringued 5y ago>I think nominal GDP targeting is pretty bad policy though. Deflation can be a great thing for people, if its focused in the right areas. Only if accompanied with a negative interest rate so that the real interest rate is 0%. The problem with deflation is that it raises the real interest rate, even though nobody signed a contract "hey if deflation is 5% I will willingly pay a real interest rate of 5%". When you consider that deflation primarily happens in economies that don't need further growth, paying that interest rate is not good for society.