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> Can productivity compensate if the average age is getting older (people tend to be less productive after a certain median age)? Most certainly. We'll very cl

> Can productivity compensate if the average age is getting older (people tend to be less productive after a certain median age)? Most certainly. We'll very clearly do it with robots and artificial intelligence. Although people are expecting way too much way too soon. The classic line about how people overestimate change in the short-term and underestimate change in the long-term. Elon Musk may occasionally be a clown in his behavior, but he has persistently been out on the cutting edge where newer technology meets real-world usefulness (the point where technology is ready for mass adoption; an awareness Steve Jobs also had). That's why Musk & Tesla are so interested in robotics (and they have the cashflow now to easily afford to pursue it in a big way). It will be a very large market, 30 years out, and it'll do a lot for boosting per capita productivity while population declines or stagnates. For example we might see a scenario where population declines in the affluent nations, with persistent aging, and productivity remains stable or even gains, thanks to all manner of human labor enhancements that we'll come up with in this looming era.

JaimeThompson 5y ago
>and they have the cashflow now to easily afford to pursue it in a big way Musk is in the process of tying most of his free cash up in a web app instead of investing it in his businesses which might cause those larger companies to have issues.
- adventured 5y ago
  Musk is mostly not tying up free cash to buy Twitter, it's going to end up largely being a debt move (as is typical of what he does, as he hates to sell his stock). And I'm not sure where your premise matters re what I said. Tesla is the entity in question with the booming free cash to spend from operations, as their business has become soundly profitable. If Musk leverages his enormous net worth on acquiring profitable Twitter - what does that have to do with Tesla's ability to direct its operational cash to robotics R&D? Maybe his focus being split further will increase the risk to Tesla's profitability over time, however you didn't suggest that (and maybe Tesla would be better off with a Gwynne Shotwell operating it anyway; a more distracted Musk that has to hire a superior operator might bolster Tesla). With $3.6b in operating income last quarter, and $9.6b over the last four quarters, Tesla increasingly has huge resources to throw at big R&D programs. Which has little to nothing to do with Musk's personal finances.
  - JaimeThompson 5y ago
    SpaceX, as per Musk, has a decent chance of going bankrupt. Perhaps he was just saying that to guilt people into come in to work over Thanksgiving which raises an entire other collection of concerns. So far Tesla Robotics hasn't shown much to make anyone think they are serious about it. He needs to run his companies like an adult and stop doing stupid stunts for attention and taking stupid risks like smoking drugs one of your most, if not the most, profitable customer says are illegal on camera.

JaimeThompson 5y ago

>and they have the cashflow now to easily afford to pursue it in a big way Musk is in the process of tying most of his free cash up in a web app instead of investing it in his businesses which might cause those larger companies to have issues.

adventured 5y ago
Musk is mostly not tying up free cash to buy Twitter, it's going to end up largely being a debt move (as is typical of what he does, as he hates to sell his stock). And I'm not sure where your premise matters re what I said. Tesla is the entity in question with the booming free cash to spend from operations, as their business has become soundly profitable. If Musk leverages his enormous net worth on acquiring profitable Twitter - what does that have to do with Tesla's ability to direct its operational cash to robotics R&D? Maybe his focus being split further will increase the risk to Tesla's profitability over time, however you didn't suggest that (and maybe Tesla would be better off with a Gwynne Shotwell operating it anyway; a more distracted Musk that has to hire a superior operator might bolster Tesla). With $3.6b in operating income last quarter, and $9.6b over the last four quarters, Tesla increasingly has huge resources to throw at big R&D programs. Which has little to nothing to do with Musk's personal finances.
- JaimeThompson 5y ago
  SpaceX, as per Musk, has a decent chance of going bankrupt. Perhaps he was just saying that to guilt people into come in to work over Thanksgiving which raises an entire other collection of concerns. So far Tesla Robotics hasn't shown much to make anyone think they are serious about it. He needs to run his companies like an adult and stop doing stupid stunts for attention and taking stupid risks like smoking drugs one of your most, if not the most, profitable customer says are illegal on camera.