4 ms·

The thing I find interesting with Netflix is how much they spend on content and what a terrible rate of return it has. Look at Apple TV+, they're absolutely TIN

by OskarS 5y ago

The thing I find interesting with Netflix is how much they spend on content and what a terrible rate of return it has. Look at Apple TV+, they're absolutely TINY compared to Netflix in both library size and money spent on new production, but they have arguably more hits than Netflix. Like, since when has any drama on Netflix been as buzzy or as good as Severance on Apple TV+? When was the last time they had a comedy success like Ted Lasso? They have a couple of things that are very good (including Russian Doll, which is better than the article gives it credit for). But it's the ratio the that's troubling: the value of [good shows] / [shows produced] is absurdly much lower for Netflix than for Apple TV+, HBO Max or Disney+. All their spending seems to result in is endless mediocre True Crime documentaries that try recapture the magic of the first season of Making a Murderer, and the occasional golden nugget you binge in a weekend. The article makes a big deal of the binging thing, and I agree it's a terrible model compared to weekly releases. But I feel like Netflix's real problem is that they just don't make enough good stuff.

prasadjoglekar 5y ago
"The thing I find interesting with Netflix is how much they spend on content and what a terrible rate of return it has." Bingo - that's the real reason for the long term (or secular ) decline we're seeing. With 0% interest rates, it didn't matter what the payoff time horizon for Netflix was. With 4% interest rates, longer horizons are gone. Couple that with Netflix being a discretionary expense, and we see the compounding effects of inflation. Two things will happen - we'll see the real value of Netflix's library content. Do people really value that at $12 per month. And we'll also likely see an appreciation in the value of the library content from legacy studios like Paramount/NBCU etc. - who have complained for the longest time that this is undervalued relative to Netflix.
- fetus8 5y ago
  $12 a month? The cheapest Netflix plan is $10 for STANDARD definition. $15 for HD on two screens, and $20 a month for 4K resolution. I think bumping up past $15 has hurt them a lot too. $20 a month for a streaming service is outrageous.
  - juki 5y ago
    They have different prices for different countries.
    - nrmitchi 5y ago
      Which kinda-shoulda make sense, since they have different content catalogues in different countries too.
matwood 5y ago
> Apple TV+, HBO Max or Disney+ Exactly. If I pick a random show on any of those, it's probably at least ok (depending on the kinds of shows I like). Pick a random Netflix original and it's probably terrible. And, the ones you do find that are ok end up canceled after a single season.
muh_gradle 5y ago
I was really skeptical of subscribing to Apple TV (an additional streaming service really?) but after watching some of the Apple content I'm a convert. Ted Lasso, Severance, Pachinko, and many more. There's just so much cheap, quickly produced, B-level content that it dilutes the brand.
rnd0 5y ago
>The article makes a big deal of the binging thing, and I agree it's a terrible model compared to weekly releases. But I feel like Netflix's real problem is that they just don't make enough good stuff. Personally speaking, I'd be happy if they simply completed the stuff they do make -instead of cancelling it prematurely.
rhino369 5y ago
I think they've over-interpreted their viewing data. Seems like they concluded that viewers spend most of their time watching garbage filler, which is probably true. But they shouldn't presume that each viewing hour is equal to the next. I'll watch some garbage on streaming. But I'll make subscription choices based on flagship shows since everyone has garbage filler content.
- 8ytecoder 5y ago
  Based on the cancellations of some beloved shows, I’d also say they give a disproportionate weight age to binging.
shp0ngle 5y ago
I have no idea what happened with Netflix. Their first few originals were great, or if not great, then at least interesting. Now, they produce so much, but most of it is just… feeling like made by AI Like they see what is popular elsewhere and trying to produce exactly the same thing. But as with GPT generated text, after a while, you can sense something is off.

by OskarS 5y ago

prasadjoglekar 5y ago

"The thing I find interesting with Netflix is how much they spend on content and what a terrible rate of return it has." Bingo - that's the real reason for the long term (or secular ) decline we're seeing. With 0% interest rates, it didn't matter what the payoff time horizon for Netflix was. With 4% interest rates, longer horizons are gone. Couple that with Netflix being a discretionary expense, and we see the compounding effects of inflation. Two things will happen - we'll see the real value of Netflix's library content. Do people really value that at $12 per month. And we'll also likely see an appreciation in the value of the library content from legacy studios like Paramount/NBCU etc. - who have complained for the longest time that this is undervalued relative to Netflix.

fetus8 5y ago
$12 a month? The cheapest Netflix plan is $10 for STANDARD definition. $15 for HD on two screens, and $20 a month for 4K resolution. I think bumping up past $15 has hurt them a lot too. $20 a month for a streaming service is outrageous.
- juki 5y ago
  They have different prices for different countries.
  - nrmitchi 5y ago
    Which kinda-shoulda make sense, since they have different content catalogues in different countries too.

matwood 5y ago

> Apple TV+, HBO Max or Disney+ Exactly. If I pick a random show on any of those, it's probably at least ok (depending on the kinds of shows I like). Pick a random Netflix original and it's probably terrible. And, the ones you do find that are ok end up canceled after a single season.

muh_gradle 5y ago

I was really skeptical of subscribing to Apple TV (an additional streaming service really?) but after watching some of the Apple content I'm a convert. Ted Lasso, Severance, Pachinko, and many more. There's just so much cheap, quickly produced, B-level content that it dilutes the brand.

rnd0 5y ago

>The article makes a big deal of the binging thing, and I agree it's a terrible model compared to weekly releases. But I feel like Netflix's real problem is that they just don't make enough good stuff. Personally speaking, I'd be happy if they simply completed the stuff they do make -instead of cancelling it prematurely.

rhino369 5y ago

I think they've over-interpreted their viewing data. Seems like they concluded that viewers spend most of their time watching garbage filler, which is probably true. But they shouldn't presume that each viewing hour is equal to the next. I'll watch some garbage on streaming. But I'll make subscription choices based on flagship shows since everyone has garbage filler content.

8ytecoder 5y ago
Based on the cancellations of some beloved shows, I’d also say they give a disproportionate weight age to binging.

shp0ngle 5y ago

I have no idea what happened with Netflix. Their first few originals were great, or if not great, then at least interesting. Now, they produce so much, but most of it is just… feeling like made by AI Like they see what is popular elsewhere and trying to produce exactly the same thing. But as with GPT generated text, after a while, you can sense something is off.