5 ms·

* I wrote 3 years ago (June 20, 2019) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20231341 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20231341 >Even when someone is the fir

by nabla9 5y ago

* I wrote 3 years ago (June 20, 2019) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20231341 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20231341 >Even when someone is the first with tech and prioritization, it does not mean they succeed in the long term after the field matures. I don't have high hopes for Slack in 5-10 years. Neither do I see Dropbox or Netflix justifying current valuations in the same time period. Since then NFLX: -40.90%, SP500: +51.14%, DBX: -10.08% * 2 years ago (Aug 4, 2020) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24054157 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24054157 >Almost all Netflix competitors (Disney, Amazon, HBO Max, Peacock, Apple ... ) will have other sources of revenue besides streaming so they can afford to keep loosing money to gain market share. Netflix can't cut prices too much.

emsixteen 5y ago
What's the realistic Dropbox competitor, with partial file sync, selective sync, share links and the like? Have tried Google Drive, Mega.nz, iCloud, OneDrive, Jottacloud and others and none has really impressed.
- mathattack 5y ago
  Google and Microsoft only have to be 60% good enough when they’re bundled in with other products to be free or almost free.
- nabla9 5y ago
  Valuation is thinking about the [future profits]/[stock price] ratio. No matter how good the company business and it's position in the market is (= future profits), it can be overvalued if the price is too high. I think Dropbox seems like really nice product, but not at the valuation it had or has. It has no permanent competitive edge.
polka_haunts_us 5y ago
Netflix, at least compared to Dropbox, had the opportunity to transition to producing 1st party content which they could use to continue to generate revenue even after all the 3rd party content went proprietary. My gut instinct is that Netflix has failed to succeed on that front, but there was an attempt. Curious where on your crystal ball you see the likes of Spotify and the music (and podcast I guess) industry in 10 years.
- markdown 5y ago
  > but there was an attempt. Unfortunately it was data-driven. This meant that if a new show didn't catch on within a season or two, it was cancelled. They've killed so many great shows chasing the lowest common denominator. The formula they settled on was: big name star in a generic designed-by-committee (or AI) show. Shame.
  - dougmwne 5y ago
    This is where Apple TV+ has been a breath of fresh air, like eating a garden fresh tomato after years of canned tomato paste.
  - thedougd 5y ago
    I think you're spot on about this. Oddly, Netflix has seen some success by reviving shows that were discontinued on major networks. You'd think they'd know better than to cancel shows like The OA before completion.
  - jon-wood 5y ago
    I'm really disappointed that creators didn't catch on to this and design their shows to run for one or two seasons. Not everything needs to be a decade long odyssey, and in fact a great many TV shows that were great at first were IMO destroyed by trying to keep running for as long as possible, long past the point where they ran out of things to say.
- gilbetron 5y ago
  Not OP, but I don't see why anyone would invest in Spotify - there's many other options out there for great music. Spotify doesn't have sole rights to really any music as far as I know, plus music is far easier to make than movies & series. If you cut me off from established artists, I can still get great joy in a multitude of music being developed today. Beyond that, there's always the option of just giving money to the artists I like directly. The only thing Spotify has going for it is convenience, and I still would rather use Google/Youtube music. I pay for Youtube premium and get music for free with it, as does my entire family. Furthermore, it doesn't matter to the artists where their listeners get their music, there is no extra cost to them licensing it out to 2 or 1000 Spotifys, although there's an argument to be made that just 1 legal license would benefit them, but with pirating I don't there's much to that argument. There was an article in the Atlantic about how people are listening more to "old" music these days, which makes sense, but will have a big impact on the industry as well: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/01/old-music-killing-new-music/621339/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/01/old-music-...
dgb23 5y ago
Very bad taste of Amazon to make a competing product to Netflix, which has to be one of their biggest clients.
- joezydeco 5y ago
  Where have you been the last twenty years? This is their whole business model.
- altdataseller 5y ago
  I’m not sure if this is a joke or just a very very bad take.
naveen99 5y ago
What about now that they will switch to advertising model ?
ericmay 5y ago
I agree re: Netflix and Dropbox. Salesforce acquired Slack though. The main issue with a thesis about Slack is that for some completely unknown to me reason, nobody has even attempted to make a competitor. Discord is the closest but using both I don’t think I could use Discord for work at all. It’s just off.
- maxerickson 5y ago
  Is this a Teams joke?
  - WaffleIronMaker 5y ago
    No, Teams is a joke.
    - sofixa 5y ago
      A bad joke.
- usrn 5y ago
  XMPP still exists.
  - hotpotamus 5y ago
    IRC still exists even. I was recently told that it's basically Dischord for old people and I can't really disagree with that perspective from the eyes of a kid today.
- altdataseller 5y ago
  Teams and Mattermost are competitors
- onphonenow 5y ago
  Zoom is trying to compete in that space and doing pretty ok

by nabla9 5y ago

emsixteen 5y ago

What's the realistic Dropbox competitor, with partial file sync, selective sync, share links and the like? Have tried Google Drive, Mega.nz, iCloud, OneDrive, Jottacloud and others and none has really impressed.

mathattack 5y ago
Google and Microsoft only have to be 60% good enough when they’re bundled in with other products to be free or almost free.
nabla9 5y ago
Valuation is thinking about the [future profits]/[stock price] ratio. No matter how good the company business and it's position in the market is (= future profits), it can be overvalued if the price is too high. I think Dropbox seems like really nice product, but not at the valuation it had or has. It has no permanent competitive edge.

polka_haunts_us 5y ago

Netflix, at least compared to Dropbox, had the opportunity to transition to producing 1st party content which they could use to continue to generate revenue even after all the 3rd party content went proprietary. My gut instinct is that Netflix has failed to succeed on that front, but there was an attempt. Curious where on your crystal ball you see the likes of Spotify and the music (and podcast I guess) industry in 10 years.

markdown 5y ago
> but there was an attempt. Unfortunately it was data-driven. This meant that if a new show didn't catch on within a season or two, it was cancelled. They've killed so many great shows chasing the lowest common denominator. The formula they settled on was: big name star in a generic designed-by-committee (or AI) show. Shame.
- dougmwne 5y ago
  This is where Apple TV+ has been a breath of fresh air, like eating a garden fresh tomato after years of canned tomato paste.
- thedougd 5y ago
  I think you're spot on about this. Oddly, Netflix has seen some success by reviving shows that were discontinued on major networks. You'd think they'd know better than to cancel shows like The OA before completion.
- jon-wood 5y ago
  I'm really disappointed that creators didn't catch on to this and design their shows to run for one or two seasons. Not everything needs to be a decade long odyssey, and in fact a great many TV shows that were great at first were IMO destroyed by trying to keep running for as long as possible, long past the point where they ran out of things to say.
gilbetron 5y ago
Not OP, but I don't see why anyone would invest in Spotify - there's many other options out there for great music. Spotify doesn't have sole rights to really any music as far as I know, plus music is far easier to make than movies & series. If you cut me off from established artists, I can still get great joy in a multitude of music being developed today. Beyond that, there's always the option of just giving money to the artists I like directly. The only thing Spotify has going for it is convenience, and I still would rather use Google/Youtube music. I pay for Youtube premium and get music for free with it, as does my entire family. Furthermore, it doesn't matter to the artists where their listeners get their music, there is no extra cost to them licensing it out to 2 or 1000 Spotifys, although there's an argument to be made that just 1 legal license would benefit them, but with pirating I don't there's much to that argument. There was an article in the Atlantic about how people are listening more to "old" music these days, which makes sense, but will have a big impact on the industry as well: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/01/old-music-killing-new-music/621339/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/01/old-music-...

dgb23 5y ago

Very bad taste of Amazon to make a competing product to Netflix, which has to be one of their biggest clients.

joezydeco 5y ago
Where have you been the last twenty years? This is their whole business model.
altdataseller 5y ago
I’m not sure if this is a joke or just a very very bad take.

naveen99 5y ago

What about now that they will switch to advertising model ?

ericmay 5y ago

I agree re: Netflix and Dropbox. Salesforce acquired Slack though. The main issue with a thesis about Slack is that for some completely unknown to me reason, nobody has even attempted to make a competitor. Discord is the closest but using both I don’t think I could use Discord for work at all. It’s just off.

maxerickson 5y ago
Is this a Teams joke?
- WaffleIronMaker 5y ago
  No, Teams is a joke.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    A bad joke.
usrn 5y ago
XMPP still exists.
- hotpotamus 5y ago
  IRC still exists even. I was recently told that it's basically Dischord for old people and I can't really disagree with that perspective from the eyes of a kid today.
altdataseller 5y ago
Teams and Mattermost are competitors
onphonenow 5y ago
Zoom is trying to compete in that space and doing pretty ok