5 ms·

Every time I do the math, any money I would spend on a solar system, would be better invested in an energy utility and just collect the dividend to pay my elect

by ejb999 5y ago

Every time I do the math, any money I would spend on a solar system, would be better invested in an energy utility and just collect the dividend to pay my electric bill. If you want to do solar for the environment, fine - I won't fault you - but if you are doing it to save/make money, there are better places to invest.

simfree 5y ago
The provider space seems quite volatile, where investors risk being wiped out (ala Griddy's investors), severely reduced in value (eg: PG&E), PG&E: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441976-formerly-bankrupt-pge-corp-still-a-terrible-investment https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441976-formerly-bankrupt-p...
1123581321 5y ago
Who is your utility and what part of the country? My panels are earning me about 12% per annum post tax, low risk, with insurance against capital loss (home insurance in event of hailstorm, hurricane.) I don’t see stock market investment opportunities competing.
- ejb999 5y ago
  I am in new england, electric rates are a lot less here (for now anyway) than CA (if that is where you are), and thus the calculations for you may be better than they are for me. Its been a few years since I did the math, but last time I was quoted about 60K for a complete system - 60K at 5% dividend (NGG at the time), would give me $3K per year, enough to cover my bill. AT the end of 20-30 years, a solar system will be worth nothing, or almost nothing, whereas I will still own the same stock in the same company hopefully the stock will have appreciated as well), and will still be covering my electric bill. This of course makes lots of assumptions: I need to invest in company that will still be around for decades, that electric costs don't go thru the roof during that time, and the dividend doesn't go away etc. - but also would have to make assumptions about how long a solar system would last - its impossible for any of us to see out 30 years, but for the time being, I feel like on a purely financial basis, it didn't make sense for me today. But trust me, I would love to pay one sunk cost today and not have to pay an electric bill for the next 30+ years, if only I could see that far in the future with some certainty.
  - 1123581321 5y ago
    I’m in Illinois. $60k definitely ruins it. I wonder if you could find a more pragmatic vendor. I got a $55k quote but ended up finding 10.5kw for $22k and was happy with the work, financial health of vendor and warranties. After federal and state credits I’m paying back in several years and making money on the next 14-20. I may also need an inverter replacement between years 10-15 for a few thousand. We have some of the cheapest rates in the US, due to our nuclear, so our state incentives are fairly good to compensate. Nuclear may be discontinued, but given recent events I’m less sure. Either way I think we only have upside on the ROI due to rate changes.
msandford 5y ago
That's a super interesting angle I had never considered! Part of my reason for thinking about solar is that if I'm going to spend 10k on a backup generator it might be far smarter to spend that on solar. For me the invest and pay cycle doesn't address the problem I'm solving. But I absolutely learned something today.
- hedora 5y ago
  Just did that. PG&E's not quite bad enough to justify going off grid with current NEM 2 rates. (Trust me, I checked.) NEM 3 would have been bad enough for the middle finger treatment, but they're reworking and delaying it. Anyway, if you want to use it as a backup, you'll need to oversize the solar so the battery can get you through power outages on cloudy days. At that point PG&E will pay you 10-20% market rate for the excess energy you produce on most days. It's much better to dump those electrons into an EV battery than into the grid. My commute costs $4/week in electricity I don't send to PG&E, vs 20x that for the gas for the same commute. (The EV gets 4.5 miles/kWh, and PG&E pays $0.04 / kWh, or $.008/mile. The old car gets 30mpg. At $5/gallon, that's $0.16/mile) The punchline: Budget money for an EV for each of your household's commutes when you purchase the solar panels. Regardless if whether you buy panels, consider charging at work, assuming your employer subsidizes it and/or has solar panels. (Also, check the milage on the EV you want. 3-5 mi/kWh is typical, but they can vary from 1 to 7.)

by ejb999 5y ago

simfree 5y ago

The provider space seems quite volatile, where investors risk being wiped out (ala Griddy's investors), severely reduced in value (eg: PG&E), PG&E: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441976-formerly-bankrupt-pge-corp-still-a-terrible-investment https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441976-formerly-bankrupt-p...

1123581321 5y ago

Who is your utility and what part of the country? My panels are earning me about 12% per annum post tax, low risk, with insurance against capital loss (home insurance in event of hailstorm, hurricane.) I don’t see stock market investment opportunities competing.

ejb999 5y ago
I am in new england, electric rates are a lot less here (for now anyway) than CA (if that is where you are), and thus the calculations for you may be better than they are for me. Its been a few years since I did the math, but last time I was quoted about 60K for a complete system - 60K at 5% dividend (NGG at the time), would give me $3K per year, enough to cover my bill. AT the end of 20-30 years, a solar system will be worth nothing, or almost nothing, whereas I will still own the same stock in the same company hopefully the stock will have appreciated as well), and will still be covering my electric bill. This of course makes lots of assumptions: I need to invest in company that will still be around for decades, that electric costs don't go thru the roof during that time, and the dividend doesn't go away etc. - but also would have to make assumptions about how long a solar system would last - its impossible for any of us to see out 30 years, but for the time being, I feel like on a purely financial basis, it didn't make sense for me today. But trust me, I would love to pay one sunk cost today and not have to pay an electric bill for the next 30+ years, if only I could see that far in the future with some certainty.
- 1123581321 5y ago
  I’m in Illinois. $60k definitely ruins it. I wonder if you could find a more pragmatic vendor. I got a $55k quote but ended up finding 10.5kw for $22k and was happy with the work, financial health of vendor and warranties. After federal and state credits I’m paying back in several years and making money on the next 14-20. I may also need an inverter replacement between years 10-15 for a few thousand. We have some of the cheapest rates in the US, due to our nuclear, so our state incentives are fairly good to compensate. Nuclear may be discontinued, but given recent events I’m less sure. Either way I think we only have upside on the ROI due to rate changes.

msandford 5y ago

That's a super interesting angle I had never considered! Part of my reason for thinking about solar is that if I'm going to spend 10k on a backup generator it might be far smarter to spend that on solar. For me the invest and pay cycle doesn't address the problem I'm solving. But I absolutely learned something today.

hedora 5y ago
Just did that. PG&E's not quite bad enough to justify going off grid with current NEM 2 rates. (Trust me, I checked.) NEM 3 would have been bad enough for the middle finger treatment, but they're reworking and delaying it. Anyway, if you want to use it as a backup, you'll need to oversize the solar so the battery can get you through power outages on cloudy days. At that point PG&E will pay you 10-20% market rate for the excess energy you produce on most days. It's much better to dump those electrons into an EV battery than into the grid. My commute costs $4/week in electricity I don't send to PG&E, vs 20x that for the gas for the same commute. (The EV gets 4.5 miles/kWh, and PG&E pays $0.04 / kWh, or $.008/mile. The old car gets 30mpg. At $5/gallon, that's $0.16/mile) The punchline: Budget money for an EV for each of your household's commutes when you purchase the solar panels. Regardless if whether you buy panels, consider charging at work, assuming your employer subsidizes it and/or has solar panels. (Also, check the milage on the EV you want. 3-5 mi/kWh is typical, but they can vary from 1 to 7.)