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This article conflates multiple distinct mechanisms in a way that doesn't make sense. For instance, the author implies that stock returns (in the long run) are
by baobabKoodaa 5y ago
This article conflates multiple distinct mechanisms in a way that doesn't make sense.
For instance, the author implies that stock returns (in the long run) are comprised of economy-wide growth and dividends. The author provides a hypothetical example of 8% stock return being explained by 5% economy-wide return and 3% dividend return. This is wrong on so many levels.
First of all, dividends are a mechanism to transfer wealth from the company to its shareholders. Emphasis on "transfer". Dividends do not magically create new wealth out of thin air. If a company decided that - all else being equal - they will reinvest profits instead of paying dividends this year, the investors' returns would not be affected. Value of the skipped dividend would simply appreciate the stock price instead (when a company pays a $1 dividend, their stock price drops by $1).
Secondly, the author implies that without dividends a stock investors's returns would be constrained by economy-wide growth. This is nonsensical. You can own a company within a stagnating economy and that company can still turn a profit. Even if the economy is growing at 0%, a company might still make 10% profits per year. The connection between economic growth and company profits is not what the author believes it to be.
- bkyiuuMbF 5y agoCombining capital growth and yield is quite standard across the industry for measuring total return. Yes the dividend is reflected in the share price (it doesn't grow as much as it might have if reinvested) but that's completely fine. Combine them to get the total return. Pretty normal.
- baobabKoodaa 5y ago> Combining capital growth and yield is quite standard across the industry for measuring total return. Yes it is, but that's not what the author of the article was doing. They were not looking at capital growth of the stock, they were looking at economy-wide growth. Those are entirely different things. As I said, you can have a stagnating economy with 0% year-on-year GDP growth, and at the same time, the average company within that economy will be turning a profit.