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As climate fears mount, some are relocating within the US
- otoburb 5y agoAn influx of Americans migrating to New England might incur a spillover north of the border into Montreal and Ottawa, which would only exacerbate their own housing booms[1][2] along with the rest of Canada[3]. [1] https://montrealgazette.com/business/local-business/real-estate/interest-rate-hike-unlikely-to-cool-montreals-sizzling-housing-market-experts https://montrealgazette.com/business/local-business/real-est... [2] https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/ottawas-housing-market-keeps-rolling-despite-higher-interest-rates https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/ottawas-housing-ma... [3] https://www.wsj.com/articles/canadas-rate-hikes-jeopardize-housing-boom-11649949345 https://www.wsj.com/articles/canadas-rate-hikes-jeopardize-h...
- folkrav 5y agoRegarding Montreal - a year ago, we barely could find homes matching our needs within our budget within a ~1h, 1h30 radius around Montreal, let alone even get a single offer to stick. 50+ visits, 6-7 offers refused last I counted. We decided to stop looking for a while cause it's just getting ridiculous and impossible to manage - I can't in good conscience spend every single weekend driving around for hours with my 4yo just visiting homes... Horrible moment to get into the market, unfortunately, but that's when we finally managed to cut down on student debt and put some money aside for that. Oh well, guess we won't own for another couple of years.
- kadoban 5y agoI'd like to see some decent analysis of which places, US or otherwise, are expected to weather climate change well.
- f_allwein 5y agoAlso, check out What the world will look like 4°C warmer (tl;dr: not good) https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-like-4degc-warmer/ https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-l...
- jlund-molfese 5y agoProPublica had an article [1] a while ago which might be what you're looking for. The really interesting projected data is at the bottom. [1] https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/ https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/
- otoburb 5y agoThanks for providing the article. That's a pretty grim series of visuals.
- jakear 5y agohttps://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Present-and-future-K%C3%B6ppen-Geiger-climate-maps-at-Beck-Zimmermann/81429b2682936e40bea504e03b23c345de4be087 https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Present-and-future-K%C...
- mitchbob 5y agoFor the US, the Fourth Climate Change Assessment [1] includes chapters for major regions. The EPA has "Climate Change Impacts by Region" that also breaks down information by sector and by state. [2] [1] https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/ https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/ [2] https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-change-impacts-region_.html https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climat...
- throwaway829 5y agoBill Gates and Obama are putting their money on coastal properties: Bill Gate's San Diego beach front home: https://nypost.com/2022/03/23/bill-gates-is-turning-43m-mansion-into-bachelor-pad-nuisance/ https://nypost.com/2022/03/23/bill-gates-is-turning-43m-mans... Obama's home on the coast of Martha's Vineyard (an island in the Atlantic): https://vineyardgazette.com/news/2019/12/04/president-obama-buys-home-edgartown-great-pond https://vineyardgazette.com/news/2019/12/04/president-obama-...
- kadoban 5y agoHaving enough money to buy something else when it's underwater isn't the same thing. That's just "be rich", which is a solution to many problems.
- systemvoltage 5y ago
- dataflow 5y agoThere's no debate, the answer is clearly "both". Just like how your barbecue fire is due to both oxygen and fuel.
- gumby 5y agoThat’s a mischaracterization of what the paper says. Quoting from it: “Climate change affects the severity of the fire season and the amount and type of vegetation on the land, which are major variables in predicting wildfires. However, humans contribute another set of factors that influence wildfires...”
- tonymet 5y ago
- ceejayoz 5y agoThe Pelosi thing is a hoax: https://www.statesman.com/story/news/politics/politifact/2021/12/01/fact-check-did-nancy-pelosi-buy-25-million-mansion-florida/8807199002/ https://www.statesman.com/story/news/politics/politifact/202... Obama's Hawaii property includes a seawall. I'd also note that the rich can spend $25 million on temporary enjoyment in a way you or I cannot. For example: a $6 million quinceañera https://www.dallasnews.com/news/texas/2017/12/12/texas-attorney-who-gave-daughter-6-million-quinceanera-throws-his-son-a-4-million-18th-birthday-bash/ https://www.dallasnews.com/news/texas/2017/12/12/texas-attor...
- heavyset_go 5y agoTo add to this point, wealthy people can afford to rebuild and insure, especially in areas that are highly sought after. I lived near a coastal area that was a popular location for the very wealthy to own beach homes in. Hurricanes would regularly inundate the area, destroying homes and literally washing some of them away. However, like clockwork, the mansions on the beach would be rebuilt and by the summer it would be like nothing happened. Meanwhile, in poorer adjacent neighborhoods, there are still abandoned remains of homes that were destroyed by hurricanes over a decade ago, because people couldn't afford to rebuild.
- JKCalhoun 5y agoI was on a road-trip with my daughter when we drove past the (unfortunately named) Ashland, Talent and (also oddly named) Phoenix, Oregon on Highway 99 shortly after the fires had gone through. What a depressing thing to see. We just stared out the window at the embers of homes right off the freeway. It was unreal. Pretty sure Google Maps is still showing satellite imagery from the fire. https://www.google.com/maps/@42.2414708,-122.7733287,616m/data=!3m1!1e3 https://www.google.com/maps/@42.2414708,-122.7733287,616m/da...
- bendbro 5y ago> some Aka: the 5 people the journalist built the story around. Enjoyable read despite me being an eternal hater.
- 0xy 5y agoThis seems false, given Florida's booming net migration.
- ceejayoz 5y agoAging boomers retiring to a state with no income tax don't care about 50 years out.
- andrew_ 5y agoWith figures like a half million migrating from the North and New England to places like Florida [1], it makes the article seem a bit sensational. Florida is in no way a haven from the effects climate change. [1] https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2022/02/08/covid-pandemic-brings-people-new-york-and-new-jersey-florida/9203825002/ https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2022/02/08/covid-pa...
- arthurcolle 5y agoIt seems apprent that climate disaster is inevitable. Might as well experience coastal life before flooding makes the central/inner state areas the "new coast" haha
- throw93232 5y agoOr maybe new ice age is coming.
- exac 5y ago> Or maybe new ice age is coming. The science does not support that. Your particular corner of the planet is not indicative of the world's changing climate: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/does-global-warming-mean-it%E2%80%99s-warming-everywhere https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/does-global...
- throw93232 5y agoI wrote MAYBE, science definitely says there is some propability of ice age. Qestion is what is propability of that maybe. But science is now religion I guess. I moved to warmer country to save on energy bills. Our politicians say hot shower is a luxury now!
- themitigating 5y agoScience isn't a religion because it can change with new information
- mitchbob 5y agoArchived: https://archive.ph/oDqnF https://archive.ph/oDqnF
- DoreenMichele 5y ago“But we don’t have the housing stock...” This is an issue across the US. We need to work on this generally.
- heavyset_go 5y agoMost of the US would benefit from rezoning and a Highways Act-like deal to build stocks of affordable housing. Real estate investors and developers only seem to care to build relatively low-density 'luxury' housing, and fight affordable housing initiatives every step of the way. That seems to me like a market failure that could use some correction.
- bradlys 5y agoI am not a fan of more suburban sprawl which is what it sounds like you're advocating for. So, no thank you. Instead we should focus on building walkable neighborhoods that have higher density, less reliance on cars, and more emphasis on cycling+walking+public transit. Why it's bad: Suburbia is subsidized (many articles on HN similar to this video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Nw6qyyrTeI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Nw6qyyrTeI Climate change effects and other: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cO6txCZpbsQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cO6txCZpbsQ Affordable housing is housing that is passed down from generation to generation. We don't need to build "affordable housing". We need to build good high quality housing that will then get transferred down to other people through sales. (And with proper land value taxes - these will not be appreciating assets)
- heavyset_go 5y agoNo, I am not advocating for suburban sprawl. > Affordable housing is housing that is passed down from generation to generation. We don't need to build "affordable housing". We need to build good high quality housing that will then get transferred down to other people through sales. (And with proper land value taxes - these will not be appreciating assets) This is just trickle down theory, but for housing instead. What actually happens is that old housing stock is bought by investors who then tear it down and develop it into luxury housing, and often that housing is then either used as speculative assets or bought by some of the world's richest people looking to store value. Affordable housing doesn't mean "low-quality housing", it can mean high quality housing that is subsidized so that working class people can afford it, instead of just the adult children of the already wealthy, like many neighborhoods in cities are becoming/already are. Do it right, and that housing can become generational wealth, as well.
- briandear 5y ago
- nharada 5y ago> No, I am not denying the climate changes, but it has always changed. So you are denying human created climate change, which is basically what everyone is referring to when they say "climate change". Quibbling over semantics doesn't change the fact that you are, indeed, "denying climate change".
- aww_dang 5y agoThe previous phrase was "global warming". Unfortunately this didn't fit well with blaming cold weather events on a lack of regulation. Semantics indeed.
- bmitc 5y agoThe human way: could easily prevent something but doesn't and then panic reacts to try and avoid the consequences once they've arrived.
- DoreenMichele 5y agoWe also conveniently forget the many disasters averted, like Y2K, while we hand-wring about the latest bad news and dire predictions.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- DangitBobby 5y agoThe reaction to Climate Change seems to be more along the lines of "pretend it doesn't exist" or "I'd rather die than change my lifestyle" than "let's hire a bunch of software developers to make sure this crisis doesn't end society as we know it".
- DoreenMichele 5y agoYou are the 2nd person to dismiss my Y2K example as irrelevant. The other one was deleted before I could reply. Look up the Kuwaiti oil fires. They were supposed to burn for years and cause a global environmental disaster. We put them out in under a year and it has been essentially forgotten.
- DangitBobby 5y agoOkay, well we aren't putting out the metaphorical fire is my point. I wasn't trying to say Y2K isn't relevant, I'm just trying to say we understood what had to be done and did it. You can point to examples of disaster being averted, but that has no impact on the reality of Climate Change and our inaction towards it. Just because everything has turned out fine in the past doesn't mean it will this time, especially not how things are going now.
- 5y ago
- lettergram 5y ago
- 1270018080 5y agoWhat does "preaching climate change" mean?
- lettergram 5y ago
- CalRobert 5y agoAnecdata but we moved to Ireland in part because it should fare comparatively well over the next several decades. Getting a second passport is useful too. My home, California, will probably look a lot more like Baja California by the time my kids are middle aged.
- xyzzyz 5y agoIt likely will, but not because of the climate.
- CameronNemo 5y agoCan you explain what you mean?
- rlt 5y agoNot going to lie: I won’t mind if coastal Northern California’s weather gets a bit more like Southern California’s. If that’s the case, maybe a good real estate investment? (assuming low wildfire and rising seas risks)
- CameronNemo 5y agoBoth are big assumptions. Wildfires are already affecting the PNW and northern California extensively. SoCal does not have them because there are deserts in the east, not forest. There is a lot of fuel left to burn.
- Tepix 5y agoThere's the earthquake risk along the west coast...
- Tepix 5y agoWestern Ireland also has the best air quality of all of Europe.
- drunkpotato 5y agoThis was a terrible, very nearly statistics-free article (beyond one hand-wavey figure about possible future migration by 2100). It had about as much relevance and impact as stating that mounting fears of dog bites cause some to rethink living in neighborhoods with dogs. It's not even interesting as two case studies, if that was what it was attempting. This article was pure drivel. That said, count me as one who is migrating due, at least partially, to fears of climate change, from a low coastal region further inland. There are other, and weightier, factors involved in the move, but climate change rendering my current town uninhabitable in the next few decades is one of them, and an important one. I would love to see the article this should have been, examining polling, statistics, and drawing possible inferences.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- dreamcompiler 5y ago> This article was pure drivel. It's Wired. The magazine for tech dilettantes who like bright colors.
- bradlys 5y agoBuild better homes and you won't have to really deal with the issues. Things like ERVs with HEPA filters and homes that are airtight make these wildfires a non-issue for breathing. Things like making defensible land and better housing materials also make wildfires mostly irrelevant. Same for energy concerns if power goes out due to PG&E cutting you off over here in SV - get solar + battery backup (upside - you pay less money to the fuckers at PG&E now too). Obviously you need to worry about a variety of other things but most things can be addressed by just making a better home. Problem is - no one knows these things to start and then no one wants to spend the money or effort to do it. (I do not blame them on the money/effort front to some extent - contractors know that these things are something they can gouge customers on because the demand is high and the supply of installers is low) Instead of doing it themselves or what not though, they're focused on complaining and then trying to justify their move post-facto. Let's not ignore that where they moved from in Oregon is much more expensive now than where they ended up in NH - this likely had a serious cause with the pandemic going on full force. Their rental burned down and then they couldn't afford a home in Ashland anymore. Compare prices in Enfield, NH (https://www.redfin.com/city/22657/NH/Enfield/housing-market https://www.redfin.com/city/22657/NH/Enfield/housing-market) to Ashland, OR (https://www.redfin.com/city/803/OR/Ashland/housing-market https://www.redfin.com/city/803/OR/Ashland/housing-market). It's all bullshit, IMO.
- staticassertion 5y ago> make these wildfires a non-issue for breathing. Unless you're one of those weirdos who... goes outside.
- bradlys 5y agoDo you go outside when it's raining? Blizzard? Hailing? Cat 4 winds? Probably not. Treat it the same. Go out for when you need to. Idk why we treat smoke so differently than a blizzard or other such natural phenomena. I'm guessing it's because your home isn't airtight and so it actually affects you a lot more than when it's just raining - cause - surprise - homes are built to be watertight.
- 5y ago
- incomingpain 5y agoThe 2021 data shows heavy movement away from california and ny toward texas and florida. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia are all losing representation in the house. Due to losing population. Is it climate fears? I would tend to agree that those states who are losing people will also be the states in which they care about climate. Or is it because of poor governance?
- DoreenMichele 5y agoCalifornia has been exporting poor people for years. Texas is one of the states they move to. Florida is a destination for retirees due to the temperate weather and tax policies, so could correlate to an aging population.
- TrispusAttucks 5y agoExporting poor people while importing homeless people.
- DoreenMichele 5y agoYes.
- pkaye 5y agoThe weather in California is pretty comfortable year around which suits the homeless well. Many states are scorching hot or freezing cold some time of the year.
- jeffbee 5y agoCalifornia doesn't import homeless people, it creates them through its special sauce of a white-hot economy and zero tolerance for housing construction.
- hedora 5y agoAnd also zero tolerance for mental health care. (Thanks, Governor Regan, for killing off what used to be a functional system!)
- discordance 5y agoNot just in the US. The east coast in Australia has had more rain this year than ever before, which has resulted in catastrophic floods. Towns such as Lismore in northern NSW have been evacuated multiple times. As a result, many people who lived there have permanently relocated.
- ComradePhil 5y agoIf you don't ask the migrants why they are migrating, you can make any bs reason. Maybe they are migrating to get away from the doomsday cult which has a negative outlook on everything.
- mise_en_place 5y agoI would caution these people who are rushing to move to the Northeast without knowing what they signed up for. I was born in the Northeast, and I don't mind the high heat temperatures of the desert compared to the very real dangers of freezing to death during a blizzard or snowstorm. These people are in for a rude awakening. They've never experienced what it's like when a massive blizzard buries all the roads in snow, and you cannot drive any further. Or the experience of walking 2 miles in the snow, abandoning your car during said blizzards. And hurricanes WILL knock out your power, sometimes trapping you indoors when trees are uprooted or worse completely flooding your house/apartment.
- themitigating 5y agoThis sounds more like rural areas of the northeast and not cities or suburbs which may have large snowfall but fare better after a few days.
- lambdasquirrel 5y agoI lived in the mountains of California once. We have similar things like that happen too. The thing is, you can plan for snow, and you can plan for the power being out. It happened to me a few times. In the coastal mountains, you can even plan for flooding events near rivers, as long as you aren't in a floodplain or literally next to the river. Fire and water shortage, that's practically impossible to plan for. The former will wipe you out. The latter requires coordination at a state level – don't get started on water politics.
- rnk 5y agoThere are fireproof structures, people in eastern Washington are starting to build them in small numbers. Concrete building material, don't build it surrounded by trees and bushes. Fireproof window stuff.
- alar44 5y agoLived in Wisconsin for 38 years. I don't think I even know anyone who's had to abandon their car in a blizzard. I've heard of this happening in places that normally don't have snow, but never here. How does that even happen? Blizzards don't just show up out of nowhere. Usually the news is talking about it 24 hours before it hits.
- aaron695 5y ago
- lost_soul 5y agoI thought I wanted to live in the Sierra foothills. After the Paradise fire I've decided against it.
- rufus_foreman 5y agoIf you have climate fears, just move to the midwest. No matter what happens, you can be assured that the weather is going to suck ass.
- cryptonector 5y agoI've never heard any person I know utter anything about fearing climate change. I call BS on "climate fears mount". If that were true we'd see very public figures who own ocean front properties sell them, and we'd see ocean front property prices plummet. Until that happens, I won't believe that "climate fears mount".
- ceejayoz 5y ago> If that were true we'd see very public figures who own ocean front properties sell them, and we'd see ocean front property prices plummet. Humans are really good at ignoring problems until they come to a head. Even when that happens, they try to bargain around it - just look at flood plain insurance.
- cryptonector 5y agoHumans are really good at ignoring that their leaders who say one thing and do another.
- ceejayoz 5y agoLeaders tend to be rich, and will do rich people things. Obama, Trump, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and the like can afford to relocate away from the coast when it becomes necessary. Or to lobby for government intervention like sea walls and bailouts. The problems of climate change will disproportionately affect the poor. The rich will be fine, and their purchases will reflect this.
- throwaway829 5y agoHere's just two examples of rich people who recently bought homes on the coast while telling the plebs to fear the rising water levels: Bill Gate's San Diego beach front home: https://nypost.com/2022/03/23/bill-gates-is-turning-43m-mansion-into-bachelor-pad-nuisance/ https://nypost.com/2022/03/23/bill-gates-is-turning-43m-mans... Obama's home on the coast of Martha's Vineyard (an island in the Atlantic): https://vineyardgazette.com/news/2019/12/04/president-obama-buys-home-edgartown-great-pond https://vineyardgazette.com/news/2019/12/04/president-obama-...
- lambdasquirrel 5y agoSomething in common in these stories is that the people involved want to live out in the woods, or near them in the urban-wildlife boundary. Yes, fire is going to make that a thing for the rich – in California. Or just true hippie types who revel in impermanence, and (truly) owning almost nothing of monetary value. The big thing that California needs to plan for is the water shortages. The states' cities are going to need desalination. Most of its people live in the cities or denser suburban areas like Santa Rosa and are in lesser danger from fire. There are "soft" effects too, like feeling like you're under siege every autumn, and a general loss of quality-of-life, but the water issue is going to be existential. Oregon needs to consider that a great chunk of the state is dependent on logging for livelihood, and the changing climate is going to dramatically reshape those forests (if not just burn down half the stock of trees). The PNW has a much larger rural population than California by percentage, and for that reason, they will be increasingly exposed to weather-whiplash-induced wildfires, drought, and heat events.
- hedora 5y agoCalifornia won't do anything drastic to increase the water supply. It's been ignoring water shortages for decades. It will just export less food. There aren't enough farmers to influence Sacramento, and the farmers use the vast majority of the water.
- hownottowrite 5y ago“The Midwest didn’t appeal.” Clearly climate change was the deciding factor. /s
- RickJWagner 5y ago
- anm89 5y agoI can say that I just moved and I avoided Colorado strictly on climate concerns.