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There’s some predictability in terms of people trying to buy all the things they wanted as a kid when they finally have the adult income to afford it. Some exam

There’s some predictability in terms of people trying to buy all the things they wanted as a kid when they finally have the adult income to afford it. Some examples include muscle cars, BMX bikes, LEGO sets, and other things that a large population of children were aware of and wanted. If you just stock-pile the big sellers or scoop up the used stuff when it bottoms out in value then you might be able to profit. The big issue is carrying costs. If I could have parked a bunch of 70s/80s Porsches in a climate controller garage for 30+ years I’d be cashing in right now.

majormajor 5y ago
How are 90s baseball cards, pogs, and yo-yos looking? Or "regular" opened copies of NHL 94 or what have you? I think we often overlook all the shit we were into that hasn't gotten expensive. We'd have to basically index-fund this shit if we had really been trying to invest in it in 2000 or so, and I think the losers would be a big problem for our fund. Maybe you bought a 3000GT instead of a Supra because you didn't see The Fast and the Furious coming. Whoops. Let's try to predict the future instead: which of things that 2022 kids are into should we be buying up for 20 years from now? Roblox items? New Pokemon cards? (I don't know if I actually can come up with any other things off the top of my head, lol.)
- NavinF 5y ago
  > which of things that 2022 kids are into should we be buying up for 20 years from now? Streamer memorabilia: https://www.gwern.net/Startup-ideas#streamer-memorabilia https://www.gwern.net/Startup-ideas#streamer-memorabilia Tho I think the average HNer is too out of touch to make good investments in this field and would be better off asking their kids
- jonhohle 5y ago
  Regular copies of NHL ‘94 aren’t worth much (because yearly sports releases have a lot of copies and are typically fungible with the year prior or later), but is still a fantastic game and worth the $17 market price. That said, 16-bit games have doubled to quadrupled in market price in the last 3-4 years and are becoming increasingly hard to find. I’m interested in seeing how a recession affects prices, but some rarer, low print games have been expensive for a decade add and probably won’t lose much value. Obviously, who would have known, but at least in video games you can watch prices start to rise about 20 years after a consoles original life.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Are there counterfeits being made? Seems like those games would be relatively easy to copy for someone with a little skill. I don't imagine many buyers are able to verify authenticity.
    - jonhohle 5y ago
      There are counterfeits, but they are easily spotted by inspecting PCBs, packaging, printing, etc. There may be some skill involved in identifying a counterfeit, but that’s true of most collectibles. If you get a copy of Snatcher for less than $1,000 it’s probably a counterfeit, and if you can’t tell, you probably wouldn’t be spending that much to begin with.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- nunez 5y ago
  fwiw Topps (one of the Big Two manufacturers of baseball cards) recently attempted to go public via a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC). Their pitch? NFT baseball cards. So they might actually make a comeback.
- Ekaros 5y ago
  Vtuber merchandise? It might actually be decent bet. Start expensive and limited, might go up with right popular groups. From cars I'm not sure, Teslas? Or will they just die on their own.
WalterBright 5y ago
> I’d be cashing in right now Are you sure? I investigated once the Mercedes 300SL Gullwing. Despite the high price it fetches, it's still a lousy investment, if you consider inflation, compare it to S&P 500 returns, and account for all the storage costs, insurance costs, and costs to keep it in running condition. Cars decay even in a climate controlled garage. I've had some problems with my '72 Dodge with plastic parts becoming very brittle, and some things just disintegrating when they're touched. Not that I mind, I didn't buy it as an investment.
bombcar 5y ago
Some of those things have a floor - LEGO basically never goes under $10 or so a pound even used, so if you can get unopened sets for that price or so, you’re basically guaranteed to make money someday. Probably not worth it as an investment however - I’ve done it and sure some of the sets I was able to sell for much more but many just sit there.
Ekaros 5y ago
Cars are an interesting example. They are very generational outside the premium outliers. What is raising in price now are those that people are nostalgic with, but they are different from ones that parents or grand parents were nostalgic about, those in current day are just bad bets. It is about timing, in both buying and selling. And then in carrying.

majormajor 5y ago

How are 90s baseball cards, pogs, and yo-yos looking? Or "regular" opened copies of NHL 94 or what have you? I think we often overlook all the shit we were into that hasn't gotten expensive. We'd have to basically index-fund this shit if we had really been trying to invest in it in 2000 or so, and I think the losers would be a big problem for our fund. Maybe you bought a 3000GT instead of a Supra because you didn't see The Fast and the Furious coming. Whoops. Let's try to predict the future instead: which of things that 2022 kids are into should we be buying up for 20 years from now? Roblox items? New Pokemon cards? (I don't know if I actually can come up with any other things off the top of my head, lol.)

NavinF 5y ago
> which of things that 2022 kids are into should we be buying up for 20 years from now? Streamer memorabilia: https://www.gwern.net/Startup-ideas#streamer-memorabilia https://www.gwern.net/Startup-ideas#streamer-memorabilia Tho I think the average HNer is too out of touch to make good investments in this field and would be better off asking their kids
jonhohle 5y ago
Regular copies of NHL ‘94 aren’t worth much (because yearly sports releases have a lot of copies and are typically fungible with the year prior or later), but is still a fantastic game and worth the $17 market price. That said, 16-bit games have doubled to quadrupled in market price in the last 3-4 years and are becoming increasingly hard to find. I’m interested in seeing how a recession affects prices, but some rarer, low print games have been expensive for a decade add and probably won’t lose much value. Obviously, who would have known, but at least in video games you can watch prices start to rise about 20 years after a consoles original life.
- nradov 5y ago
  Are there counterfeits being made? Seems like those games would be relatively easy to copy for someone with a little skill. I don't imagine many buyers are able to verify authenticity.
  - jonhohle 5y ago
    There are counterfeits, but they are easily spotted by inspecting PCBs, packaging, printing, etc. There may be some skill involved in identifying a counterfeit, but that’s true of most collectibles. If you get a copy of Snatcher for less than $1,000 it’s probably a counterfeit, and if you can’t tell, you probably wouldn’t be spending that much to begin with.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
nunez 5y ago
fwiw Topps (one of the Big Two manufacturers of baseball cards) recently attempted to go public via a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC). Their pitch? NFT baseball cards. So they might actually make a comeback.
Ekaros 5y ago
Vtuber merchandise? It might actually be decent bet. Start expensive and limited, might go up with right popular groups. From cars I'm not sure, Teslas? Or will they just die on their own.

WalterBright 5y ago

> I’d be cashing in right now Are you sure? I investigated once the Mercedes 300SL Gullwing. Despite the high price it fetches, it's still a lousy investment, if you consider inflation, compare it to S&P 500 returns, and account for all the storage costs, insurance costs, and costs to keep it in running condition. Cars decay even in a climate controlled garage. I've had some problems with my '72 Dodge with plastic parts becoming very brittle, and some things just disintegrating when they're touched. Not that I mind, I didn't buy it as an investment.

bombcar 5y ago

Some of those things have a floor - LEGO basically never goes under $10 or so a pound even used, so if you can get unopened sets for that price or so, you’re basically guaranteed to make money someday. Probably not worth it as an investment however - I’ve done it and sure some of the sets I was able to sell for much more but many just sit there.

Ekaros 5y ago

Cars are an interesting example. They are very generational outside the premium outliers. What is raising in price now are those that people are nostalgic with, but they are different from ones that parents or grand parents were nostalgic about, those in current day are just bad bets. It is about timing, in both buying and selling. And then in carrying.