3 ms·

Isn't exactly the same thing true of stocks? I always wish I had bought Apple or Tesla at the right time, but I didn't.

throwaway09223 5y ago
Yes, but the important difference is that on the whole, the stock market goes up. On the whole, the collectables market does not.
- ipaddr 5y ago
  The collectable market keeps growing with new products and new prices everyday. Something historically valuable will generally keep that value and increase over time (like the original Apple computer).
  - lottin 5y ago
    > Something historically valuable will generally keep that value and increase over time (like the original Apple computer). This is absolutely not true. If we pick a random item from the 1980s that was valuable at the time, the chances are it's worthless now.
  - nradov 5y ago
    The market for Hummel figurines was large and growing for many years. Now they've fallen out of fashion and are basically given away in estate sales as the collectors die off.
  - Ekaros 5y ago
    Hmm. I wonder if there is good overview of numbers on let's say stamps and coins. And I'm interested about mid and high-mid value stuff here. How well are those doing?
d3nj4l 5y ago
No, it's not. You can make decisions about buying stock based on fundamentals. You can choose to buy Apple stock based on their products, and on Tesla stock based on their technology. You can't reliably do the same for collectibles.
- allturtles 5y ago
  Nothing about Apple's products in 1995 would have told you to expect returns like you would have gotten over the last 25 years. Tesla's technology over the past couple of years hasn't really changed but their stock price has gone up 10x. There are no fundamentals that justify the current price, AFAICT.
pixl97 5y ago
I mean with stocks someone tends to keep historical data so you can measure risk. With collectables this risk is much harder to quantify as it generally professionally recorded. This inability to correctly measure risk, especially in markets with low liquidity dupes people into believing they have a much larger chance of 'winning' than actually exists.
elil17 5y ago
Based on historical data, if you buy 1000 random stocks or bonds at a random time, in ten years you’ll have made money - on dividends and value appreciation. If you buy 1000 random collectibles at a random time, in ten years you’ll have lost most of your money.

Yes, but the important difference is that on the whole, the stock market goes up. On the whole, the collectables market does not.

ipaddr 5y ago
The collectable market keeps growing with new products and new prices everyday. Something historically valuable will generally keep that value and increase over time (like the original Apple computer).
- lottin 5y ago
  > Something historically valuable will generally keep that value and increase over time (like the original Apple computer). This is absolutely not true. If we pick a random item from the 1980s that was valuable at the time, the chances are it's worthless now.
- nradov 5y ago
  The market for Hummel figurines was large and growing for many years. Now they've fallen out of fashion and are basically given away in estate sales as the collectors die off.
- Ekaros 5y ago
  Hmm. I wonder if there is good overview of numbers on let's say stamps and coins. And I'm interested about mid and high-mid value stuff here. How well are those doing?

d3nj4l 5y ago

No, it's not. You can make decisions about buying stock based on fundamentals. You can choose to buy Apple stock based on their products, and on Tesla stock based on their technology. You can't reliably do the same for collectibles.

allturtles 5y ago
Nothing about Apple's products in 1995 would have told you to expect returns like you would have gotten over the last 25 years. Tesla's technology over the past couple of years hasn't really changed but their stock price has gone up 10x. There are no fundamentals that justify the current price, AFAICT.

pixl97 5y ago

I mean with stocks someone tends to keep historical data so you can measure risk. With collectables this risk is much harder to quantify as it generally professionally recorded. This inability to correctly measure risk, especially in markets with low liquidity dupes people into believing they have a much larger chance of 'winning' than actually exists.

elil17 5y ago

Based on historical data, if you buy 1000 random stocks or bonds at a random time, in ten years you’ll have made money - on dividends and value appreciation. If you buy 1000 random collectibles at a random time, in ten years you’ll have lost most of your money.